METHOD: The model uses a Stepwise Multiple Regression (SWMR) method for selecting lagged mobility index and testing correlated with daily cases based on a 0.05 level of significance.
RESULT: The models's predictability ranges are from 75% to 92%. It is also found that the mobility index plays a more important role, in comparison to testing rates, in determining daily confirmed cases.
CONCLUSION: Behavioral changes that support physical distancing measures should be practiced to slow down the COVID-19 spreads.
METHODS: The APAC MRDR was established in 2018 as a multicentre collaboration across the Asia-Pacific, collecting prospective data on patients newly diagnosed with MM, MGUS, PCL and plasmacytoma in Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan, with China recently joining. Development of the registry required a multidisciplinary team of clinicians, researchers, legal and information technology support, and financial resources, as well as local clinical context from key opinion leaders in the APAC region. Written informed consent is obtained and data are routinely collected throughout treatment by hospital staff. Data are stored securely, meeting all local privacy and ethics requirements. Data were collected from October 2018 to March 2024.
RESULTS: Over 1700 patients from 24 hospitals have been enrolled onto the APAC MRDR to date, with the majority (86%) being newly diagnosed with MM. Bortezomib with an immunomodulatory drug was most frequently used in first-line MM therapy, and lenalidomide-based therapy was most common in second-line. Establishment and implementation challenges include regulatory and a range of operational issues.
CONCLUSION: The APAC MRDR is providing 'real-world' data to participating sites, clinicians and policy-makers to explore factors influencing outcomes and survival, and to support high quality studies. It is already a valuable resource that will continue to grow and support research and clinical collaboration in MM and related diseases across the APAC region.
METHODS: We consider several PRSs trained using European and/or Asian GWAS. For each PRS, we evaluate the discrimination and calibration of three absolute risk models among 41 031 women from the Korean Cancer Prevention Study (KCPS)-II Biobank: (i) a model using incidence, mortality and risk factor distributions (reference inputs) among US women and European relative risks; (ii) a recalibrated model, using Korean reference but European relative risks; and (iii) a fully Korean-based model using Korean reference and relative risk estimates from KCPS.
RESULTS: All Asian and European PRS improved discrimination over lifestyle, clinical and environmental (Qx) factors in Korean women. US-based absolute risk models overestimated the risks for women aged ≥50 years, and this overestimation was larger for models that only included PRS (expected-to-observed ratio E/O = 1.2 for women <50, E/O = 2.7 for women ≥50). Recalibrated and Korean-based risk models had better calibration in the large, although the risk in the highest decile was consistently overestimated. Absolute risk projections suggest that risk-reducing lifestyle changes would lead to larger absolute risk reductions among women at higher PRS.
CONCLUSIONS: Absolute risk models incorporating PRS trained in European and Asian GWAS and population-appropriate average age-specific incidences may be useful for risk-stratified interventions in Korean women.
METHODS: We obtained viral hepatitis mortality data from the WHO Mortality Database for six East and Southeast Asian countries between 1987 and 2015. We produced choropleth maps of viral hepatitis mortality rates in 1987 and 2015 in East and Southeast Asia to illustrate geographic variations. We made predictions of mortality rates for each included country until the year 2030 using a series of joinpoint models.
RESULTS: Viral hepatitis mortality rates declined in China (the average annual percent change (AAPC) = -5.1%, 95% CI: -7.5, -2.6), Singapore (AAPC = -5.4%, 95% CI: -7.5, -3.2), and the Philippines (AAPC = -3.4%, 95% CI: -4.9, -1.8). In contrast, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Malaysia have experienced increasing trends in mortality rates, followed by decreasing trends. Our predictions indicate that all countries will experience slight to moderate downward trends until 2030.
CONCLUSION: Favourable decreasing trends have been noted in East and Southeast Asian countries, which may not only inform the control and management of viral hepatitis in this region but also guide the prevention of viral hepatitis deaths in another region with a similar viral hepatitis epidemic.