Natural hazards have a potentially large impact on economic growth, but measuring their economic impact is subject to a great deal of uncertainty. The central objective of this paper is to demonstrate a model--the natural disasters vulnerability evaluation (NDVE) model--that can be used to evaluate the impact of natural hazards on gross national product growth. The model is based on five basic indicators-natural hazards growth rates (αi), the national natural hazards vulnerability rate (ΩT), the natural disaster devastation magnitude rate (Π), the economic desgrowth rate (i.e. shrinkage of the economy) (δ), and the NHV surface. In addition, we apply the NDVE model to the north-east Japan earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 to evaluate its impact on the Japanese economy.
Most democratic countries hold inquiries into disasters. One of their key functions is to establish the cause of an event and to learn lessons in order to prevent a recurrence. In addition, they offer an opportunity for communal catharsis, permitting the public to vent anger, distress and frustration and to exert pressure for policy changes. Malaysia has experienced six landmark socio-technical disasters since 1968, which resulted in the proposal or amendment of various safety/emergency acts and regulations. The authors used a grounded theory approach utilising a constant comparative method to analyse the recommendations made by the inquiries into these events. Data indicate that social and technical recommendations comprise 85 and 15 per cent, respectively, of the total recommendations made by the inquiry committees. This paper offers suggestions for improving the management of inquiry tribunals, as they will remain a valuable source of information for society and corporations to learn from past incidents.
In Peninsular Malaysia 'structural' factors are found to influence strongly people's persistent occupation of floodplains. Thus, despite a high level of flood hazard awareness, a high level of pessimism and a high level of expectation of future floods, poorer individuals seldom attempt to leave for more advantageous locations but are instead trapped in their present locations by structural factors such as poverty, low residential and occupational mobility, low educational attainment, traditional land inheritance, government aid, and government disaster preparedness, relief and rehabilitation programmes. These forces exert a strong influence upon individuals and largely control their choice of residential location in response to flood hazards, thereby reinforcing the persistent occupation of floodplains. Structural factors such as landlessness, rural-urban migration, floodplain encroachment and squatting are also highly influential in leading people to move. Even for those who move, structural factors have largely confined their choice of residential location to urban floodplains.
Institutional aspects of flood hazards significantly affect their outcomes in Malaysia. Institutional arrangements to deal with floods include: legislative activity, organisational structures, attitudes and sub-culture, and policies and instruments. When assessed in terms of four specific criteria, institutional aspects of flood hazards are found to be largely inadequate. Disaster reduction programmes are over-dependent on a reactive approach based largely on technology and not even aimed at floods specifically. Structural flood reduction measures are the predominant management tool and, although the importance of non-structural measures is recognised, thus far they have been under-employed. Current laws and regulations with regard to flood management are also insufficient and both the financial and human resources of flood hazard organisations are generally found to be wanting. Finally, economic efficiency, equity and public accountability issues are not adequately addressed by institutional arrangements for flood hazards.