Southeast Asian Ovalocytosis (SAO) is a common red blood cell disorder that is maintained as a balanced polymorphism in human populations. In individuals heterozygous for the SAO-causing mutation there are minimal detrimental effects and well-documented protection from severe malaria caused by Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum; however, the SAO-causing mutation is fully lethal in utero when homozygous. The present-day high frequency of SAO in Island Southeast Asia indicates the trait is maintained by strong heterozygote advantage. Our study elucidates the evolutionary origin of SAO by characterizing DNA sequence variation in a 9.5 kilobase region surrounding the causal mutation in the SLC4A1 gene. We find substantial haplotype diversity among SAO chromosomes and estimate the age of the trait to be approximately 10,005 years (95% CI: 4930-23,200 years). This date is far older than any other human malaria-resistance trait examined previously in Southeast Asia, and considerably pre-dates the widespread adoption of agriculture associated with the spread of speakers of Austronesian languages some 4000 years ago. Using a genealogy-based method we find no evidence of historical positive selection acting on SAO (s=0.0, 95% CI: 0.0-0.03), in sharp contrast to the strong present-day selection coefficient (e.g., 0.09) estimated from the frequency of this recessively lethal trait. This discrepancy may be due to a recent increase in malaria-driven selection pressure following the spread of agriculture, with SAO targeted as a standing variant by positive selection in malarial populations.
Urbanization is creating a new global biome, in which cities and suburbs around the world often resemble each other more than the local natural areas they replaced. But while urbanization can profoundly affect ecology at local scales, we know little about whether it disrupts large-scale ecological patterns. Here we test whether urbanization disrupts a macroecological pattern central to ecological and evolutionary theory: the increase in seed predation intensity from high to low latitudes. Across 14,000 km of latitude spanning the Americas, we compared predation intensity on two species of standardized experimental seeds in urbanized and natural areas. In natural areas, predation on both seed species increased fivefold from high latitudes to the tropics, one of the strongest latitudinal gradients in species interactions documented so far. Surprisingly, latitudinal gradients in predation were equally strong in urbanized areas despite significant habitat modification. Nevertheless, urbanization did affect seed predation. Compared with natural areas, urbanization reduced overall predation and vertebrate predation, did not affect predation by invertebrates in general, and increased predation by ants. Our results show that macroecological patterns in predation intensity can persist in urbanized environments, even as urbanization alters the relative importance of predators and potentially the evolutionary trajectory of urban populations.
Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy.
Determining the drivers of non-native plant invasions is critical for managing native ecosystems and limiting the spread of invasive species1,2. Tree invasions in particular have been relatively overlooked, even though they have the potential to transform ecosystems and economies3,4. Here, leveraging global tree databases5-7, we explore how the phylogenetic and functional diversity of native tree communities, human pressure and the environment influence the establishment of non-native tree species and the subsequent invasion severity. We find that anthropogenic factors are key to predicting whether a location is invaded, but that invasion severity is underpinned by native diversity, with higher diversity predicting lower invasion severity. Temperature and precipitation emerge as strong predictors of invasion strategy, with non-native species invading successfully when they are similar to the native community in cold or dry extremes. Yet, despite the influence of these ecological forces in determining invasion strategy, we find evidence that these patterns can be obscured by human activity, with lower ecological signal in areas with higher proximity to shipping ports. Our global perspective of non-native tree invasion highlights that human drivers influence non-native tree presence, and that native phylogenetic and functional diversity have a critical role in the establishment and spread of subsequent invasions.
Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2-5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151-363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.
Understanding what controls global leaf type variation in trees is crucial for comprehending their role in terrestrial ecosystems, including carbon, water and nutrient dynamics. Yet our understanding of the factors influencing forest leaf types remains incomplete, leaving us uncertain about the global proportions of needle-leaved, broadleaved, evergreen and deciduous trees. To address these gaps, we conducted a global, ground-sourced assessment of forest leaf-type variation by integrating forest inventory data with comprehensive leaf form (broadleaf vs needle-leaf) and habit (evergreen vs deciduous) records. We found that global variation in leaf habit is primarily driven by isothermality and soil characteristics, while leaf form is predominantly driven by temperature. Given these relationships, we estimate that 38% of global tree individuals are needle-leaved evergreen, 29% are broadleaved evergreen, 27% are broadleaved deciduous and 5% are needle-leaved deciduous. The aboveground biomass distribution among these tree types is approximately 21% (126.4 Gt), 54% (335.7 Gt), 22% (136.2 Gt) and 3% (18.7 Gt), respectively. We further project that, depending on future emissions pathways, 17-34% of forested areas will experience climate conditions by the end of the century that currently support a different forest type, highlighting the intensification of climatic stress on existing forests. By quantifying the distribution of tree leaf types and their corresponding biomass, and identifying regions where climate change will exert greatest pressure on current leaf types, our results can help improve predictions of future terrestrial ecosystem functioning and carbon cycling.