Displaying publications 1 - 20 of 29 in total

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  1. Liu Yang, Xue Bai, Yinjie Hu, Qiqi Wang, Jun Deng
    Sains Malaysiana, 2017;46:2195-2204.
    The combination of geographic information system and mineral energy data management is helpful to promote the study of mineral energy and its ecological damage and environmental pollution caused by its development and utilization, which has important application value. The Trace Elements in Coal of China Database Management System (TECC) is established in this paper, applying the techniques of B/S three-layer structure, Oracle database, AJAX and WebGIS. TECC is the first database system which aims at managing the data of trace elements in coal in China. It includes data management and analysis module, document management module, trace elements in coal data maintenance module and authority management module. The data entry specification is put forward in the present study and the spatial data is included in TECC system. The system achieves the functions of data query, analysis, management, maintenance and map browsing, thematic map drawing as well as satellite video display, which lay the foundation for the analysis of large data of trace elements in coal. It is a practical platform for the acquisition, management, exchange and sharing of trace element research and geochemical research data of coal.
  2. Liu Y, Wang Y
    Front Med (Lausanne), 2023;10:1305733.
    PMID: 38020090 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2023.1305733
    PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to compare the clinical efficacy of instrument-assisted soft tissue mobilization (IASTM) and manipulative therapy Tui-na techniques in the treatment of patients with patellofemoral joint pain syndrome, and to evaluate their impact on pain relief, functional improvement, and joint range of motion.

    METHODS: In this study, 25 patients with patellofemoral pain syndrome were enrolled, comprising of an intervention group of 13 patients who received IASTM treatment and a control group of 12 patients who received Tui-na manipulation therapy. The treatment cycle lasted for 4 weeks, featuring two interventions per week. Before treatment, the visual analog pain scale (VAS) of the knee, Lysholm score of the knee, modified Thomas test (MTT), and maximum isometric strength of the extensor muscles of the lower limbs were measured and recorded for both groups. After the first and last treatments, the aforementioned indexes were reassessed, and the maximum isometric muscle strength of the lower extremity extensors was measured only after 4 weeks of treatment had been completed.

    RESULTS: There was no significant difference in the basic information of the two intervention groups (p > 0. 05). After the first treatment and 4 weeks of treatment, the Lysholm score in both groups significantly improved (p 

  3. Liu H, Liu Y, Zhang R, Wu X
    Front Neurorobot, 2021;15:675827.
    PMID: 34393749 DOI: 10.3389/fnbot.2021.675827
    The study of student behavior analysis in class plays a key role in teaching and educational reforms that can help the university to find an effective way to improve students' learning efficiency and innovation ability. It is also one of the effective ways to cultivate innovative talents. The traditional behavior recognition methods have many disadvantages, such as poor robustness and low efficiency. From a heterogeneous view perception point of view, it introduces the students' behavior recognition. Therefore, we propose a 3-D multiscale residual dense network from heterogeneous view perception for analysis of student behavior recognition in class. First, the proposed method adopts 3-D multiscale residual dense blocks as the basic module of the network, and the module extracts the hierarchical features of students' behavior through the densely connected convolutional layer. Second, the local dense feature of student behavior is to learn adaptively. Third, the residual connection module is used to improve the training efficiency. Finally, experimental results show that the proposed algorithm has good robustness and transfer learning ability compared with the state-of-the-art behavior recognition algorithms, and it can effectively handle multiple video behavior recognition tasks. The design of an intelligent human behavior recognition algorithm has great practical significance to analyze the learning and teaching of students in the class.
  4. Liu Y, Sairi M, Neusser G, Kranz C, Arrigan DW
    Anal Chem, 2015 Jun 2;87(11):5486-90.
    PMID: 25962586 DOI: 10.1021/acs.analchem.5b01162
    In this work, independent radial diffusion at arrayed nanointerfaces between two immiscible electrolyte solutions (nanoITIES) was achieved. The arrays were formed at nanopores fabricated by focused ion beam milling of silicon nitride (SiN) membranes, enabling the reproducible and systematic design of five arrays with different ratios of pore center-to-center distance (rc) to pore radius (ra). Voltammetry across water-1,6-dichlorohexane nanoITIES formed at these arrays was examined by the interfacial transfer of tetrapropylammonium ions. The diffusion-limited ion-transfer current increased with the ratio rc/ra, reaching a plateau for rc/ra ≥ 56, which was equivalent to the theoretical current for radial diffusion to an array of independent nanoITIES. As a result, mass transport to the nanoITIES arrays was greatly enhanced due to the decreased overlap of diffusion zones at adjacent nanoITIES, allowing each interface in the array to behave independently. When the rc/ra ratio increased from 13 to 56, the analytical performance parameters of sensitivity and limit of detection were improved from 0.50 (±0.02) A M(-1) to 0.76 (±0.02) A M(-1) and from 0.101 (±0.003) μM to 0.072 (±0.002) μM, respectively. These results provide an experimental basis for the design of arrayed nanointerfaces for electrochemical sensing.
  5. Bi W, Song Y, Liu Y, Li Z, Zhang Y
    Int J Environ Res Public Health, 2022 Sep 30;19(19).
    PMID: 36231821 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph191912524
    Food security is the cornerstone that ensures the stable development of a country. Based on panel data of 31 provinces (including autonomous regions and municipalities) in China from 2015 to 2019, we use the mediating effect model to explore the mechanism by which food consumption structure affects food security. The results indicate that grain consumption has a significant promoting effect on food security, while plant and animal food consumption have significant inhibiting effects on food security. Furthermore, agricultural R&D and investment play mediating roles in the impact of food consumption structure on food security. Obvious differences exist in the relationship between food consumption structure and food security between urban and rural areas, as well as between Eastern, Central, and Western regions. Animal food consumption had a negative and significant impact on food security, with a stronger effect on rural residents than on urban residents. Compared with the central and western regions, grain consumption and animal food consumption in the eastern region had a stronger marginal impact on food security. This paper enriches and expands the research on influencing factors of food security from the perspective of consumer demand, which has important theoretical value and practical significance for ensuring food security.
  6. Liu Y, Abdul Rahman A, Amin SIM, Ja'afar R
    Environ Sci Pollut Res Int, 2023 Oct;30(46):103164-103178.
    PMID: 37682439 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-29496-4
    Digital finance is an innovative financial model of great significance for sustainable economic growth. By constructing indicators of sustainable economic growth, we explore the impact of digital finance on sustainable economic growth using the fixed effect model, mediating effect model, threshold regression model, and dynamic spatial Dubin model. The study finds that digital finance can drive sustainable economic growth, and the robustness and endogenous treatment results strongly verify this. Digital finance promotes sustainable growth mainly through technological innovation. In addition, with technological innovation and the development of renewable energy, there is a significant nonlinear relationship between digital finance and sustainable economic growth. Finally, the spatial spillover effect results show that digital finance's impact on sustainable economic growth has a positive effect, whether it is a direct effect or an indirect effect. This article provides possible ideas for digital finance to promote sustainable economic growth.
  7. Li Y, Zhang Y, Dong L, Li Y, Liu Y, Liu Y, et al.
    Food Chem, 2024 Mar 30;437(Pt 1):137834.
    PMID: 37897817 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodchem.2023.137834
    In this study, strains producing feruloyl esterase were screened by Oxford Cup clear zones method and by evaluating the ability to decompose hydroxycinnamoyl esters. The strain was identified by 16S rDNA molecular biology. The contents of dietary fiber, reducing sugar, water-extractable arabinoxylans, phytic acid, total phenolics, total flavonoid, phenolic compounds composition, microstructure and antioxidant activity in bran before and after fermentation were studied. Eight strains producing feruloyl esterase were screened, among which strain P1 had the strongest ability to decompose hydroxycinnamoyl esters. The strain was identified and named L. fermentum NB02. Compared with unfermented bran, fermented bran exhibited higher contents of soluble dietary fiber, reducing sugar, water-extractable arabinoxylans, total phenolics, total flavonoid, and lower insoluble dietary fiber and phytic acid content. The dense surface structure of bran was destroyed, forming a porous structure. The release of phenolic compounds increased significantly. L. fermentum NB02 fermentation improved the antioxidant capacity of bran.
  8. Veeraperumal S, Qiu HM, Tan CS, Ng ST, Zhang W, Tang S, et al.
    J Ethnopharmacol, 2021 Jun 28;274:114024.
    PMID: 33727110 DOI: 10.1016/j.jep.2021.114024
    ETHNOPHARMACOLOGICAL RELEVANCE: Lignosus rhinocerotis (Cooke) Ryvarden cultivar TM02, also known as tiger's milk mushroom, is regarded as important folk medicine in Malaysia, while is used for the treatment of liver cancer, chronic hepatitis, gastric ulcer in traditional Chinese medicine. However, there is no compilation of scientific evidence that its protection for gastric, and no attempts have been made to understand how polysaccharides in Lignosus rhinocerotis might promote intestinal mucosal wound healing.

    AIM OF THE STUDY: This study aimed to investigate the effect and mechanism of β-glucan prepared from L. rhinocerotis using an enzymatic method on epithelial restitution during intestinal mucosal damage.

    MATERIALS AND METHODS: Based on FT-IR, MALDI-TOF-MS, HPSEC-MALLS-RID, and AFM, the structure of polysaccharides from L. rhinocerotis was analysed. In addition, polysaccharides were used to test for wound healing activity in IEC-6 cells by measuring cell migration, proliferation, and expression of cell division control protein 42, Rac-1, RhoA, and Par-3.

    RESULTS: β-glucan was extracted using enzyme-assisted extraction, and a yield of approximately 8.5 ± 0.8% was obtained from the dried biomass. The β-glucan extracted by enzyme-assisted extraction (EAE) of polysaccharides was composed entirely of D-glucose with a total carbohydrate content of 95.5 ± 3.2%. The results of HPLC, FTIR, and MALDI-TOF-MS analyses revealed EAEP to be confirmed as β-glucan. The molecular weight of prepared β-glucan was found to be 5.315 × 104 g/mol by HPSEC-MALLS-RID. Furthermore, mucosal wound healing studies showed that the treatment of IEC-6 with a β-glucan concentration of 200 μg/mL promoted cell migration and proliferation, and it enhanced the protein expression of cell division control protein 42, Rac-1, RhoA, and Par-3.

    CONCLUSIONS: The present study reveals that the prepared β-glucan accelerates intestinal epithelial cell proliferation and migration via activation of Rho-dependent pathway. Hence, β-glucan can be employed as a prospective therapeutic agent for the treatment of diseases associated with gastrointestinal mucosal damage, such as peptic ulcers and inflammatory bowel disease.

  9. Zhao D, Borkhanuddin MH, Wang W, Liu Y, Cech G, Zhai Y, et al.
    Parasitol Res, 2016 Nov;115(11):4317-4325.
    PMID: 27492197
    Thelohanellus kitauei is a freshwater myxosporean parasite causing intestinal giant cystic disease of common carp. To clarify the life cycle of T. kitauei, we investigated the oligochaete populations in China and Hungary. This study confirms two distinct aurantiactinomyxon morphotypes (Aurantiactinomyxon type 1 and Aurantiactinomyxon type 2) from Branchiura sowerbyi as developmental stages of the life cycle of T. kitauei. The morphological characteristics and DNA sequences of these two types are described here. Based on 18S rDNA sequence analysis, Aurantiactinomyxon type 1 (2048 bp) and Aurantiactinomyxon type 2 (2031 bp) share 99.2-99.4 %, 99.8-100 % similarity to the published sequences of T. kitauei, respectively. The 18S rDNA sequences of these two aurantiactinomyxon morphotypes share 99.4 % similarity, suggesting intraspecific variation within the taxon, possibly due to geographic origin. Phylogenetic analyses demonstrate the two aurantiactinomyxon types clustered with T. kitauei. Regardless, based on 18S rDNA synonymy, it is likely that Aurantiactinomyxon type 1 and 2 are conspecific with T. kitauei. This is the fourth elucidated two-host life cycle of Thelohanellus species and the first record of T. kitauei in Europe.
  10. Guo YQ, Ju QM, You M, Liu Y, Yusuf A, Soon LK
    BMC Nurs, 2023 Feb 06;22(1):33.
    PMID: 36747213 DOI: 10.1186/s12912-023-01184-1
    OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the level of depression, anxiety and stress among metastatic breast cancer (MBC) patients undergoing chemotherapy (CT) in Beijing, China.

    METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 176 MBC women receiving CT, selected by purposive sampling. Data were collected using self-administered questionnaires that included participants' socio-demographic status, DASS-21 and Brief COPE. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and general linear regression analysis.

    RESULTS: The incidence of depression, anxiety and stress among MBC women were 52.3%, 60.2% and 36.9%, respectively. General linear regression showed that age, marital status, monthly income, physical functioning, emotional functioning, pain, dyspnea, and appetite loss were associated with depression. All variance determined the depression (R2) was 35.6%. Marital status, self-blame and behavioral disengagement were the predictors of stress and accounted for a 35.4% stress variance in MBC women.

    CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrated depression, anxiety, and stress prevalence are high in MBC women. Assessment of psychological distress (depression, anxiety, and stress) is important to recognise MBC patients who need help and further medical and mental help support. This study's findings can increasingly highlight that depression, anxiety, and stress are substantial problems in MBC patients. Therefore, psychological interventions are needed to reduce depression, anxiety, and stress for MBC patients.

  11. Liu Y, Naveed RT, Kanwal S, Tahir Khan M, Dalain AF, Lan W
    PLoS One, 2023;18(8):e0289281.
    PMID: 37590276 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0289281
    In today's digitally interconnected world, social media emerges as a powerful tool, offering different opportunities for modern businesses. Not only do organizations use social media for marketing purposes, but they also endeavor to influence consumer psychology and behavior. Although prior studies indicate social media's efficacy in disseminating corporate social responsibility (CSR) communications, there remains a dearth of research addressing the impact of CSR-related messaging from banks on consumers' brand advocacy behavior (CBAB). Our study seeks to bridge this gap, exploring the CSR-CBAB relationship within the banking sector of an emerging economy. Additionally, we investigate the roles of consumers' emotions and values in mediating and moderating their CBAB, introducing two mediating factors, consumer happiness (HP) and admiration (BRAD), and moderating variable altruistic values (ATVL). Data collection involved an adapted questionnaire targeting banking consumers. The structural analysis revealed a positive correlation between a bank's CSR-related social media communications and CBAB. HP and BRAD were identified as mediators in this relationship, while ATVL emerged as a moderator. These findings hold significant theoretical and practical implications. For instance, our research highlights the indispensable role of social media in effectively conveying CSR-related information to banking consumers, subsequently enhancing their advocacy intentions.
  12. Chen BJ, Liu Y, Yang K, Li X, Dong X, Guan Y, et al.
    Food Chem X, 2023 Dec 30;20:100913.
    PMID: 38144747 DOI: 10.1016/j.fochx.2023.100913
    This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of amylase in hydrolyzing complex carbohydrates of different parts of Ganoderma spp. The aqueous extracts of the Ganoderma samples were analyzed for their selected nutritional composition and physicochemical properties. The purified extracts were also structurally characterized. The aqueous canopy extracts of red-purple Ganoderma had a notably higher total sugar and saponin content than their stalks, but not for the black-type Ganoderma. The enzymatic extraction effectively improved the extraction yields, whereas the amounts of sugars and saponins in some extracts were increased after the enzymatic treatment. The results also showed that only those enzyme-treated cultivated black Ganoderma canopy had increased total sugar and total saponin content. The antioxidant activities of all stalk extracts were higher than the canopy extracts. Their emulsifying properties were comparable with lecithin due to their high saponin content. Therefore, these extracts are new natural emulsifiers.
  13. Lv C, Zhou L, Zhou Y, Lew CCH, Lee ZY, Hasan MS, et al.
    Burns Trauma, 2024;12:tkae027.
    PMID: 39049866 DOI: 10.1093/burnst/tkae027
    BACKGROUND: There is controversy over the optimal early protein delivery in critically ill patients with acute kidney injury (AKI). This study aims to evaluate whether the association between early protein delivery and 28-day mortality was impacted by the presence of AKI in critically ill patients.

    METHODS: This is a post hoc analysis of data from a multicenter cluster-randomised controlled trial enrolling newly admitted critically ill patients (n = 2772). Participants without chronic kidney disease and with complete data concerning baseline renal function were included in this study. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze the association between early protein delivery, reflected by mean protein delivery from day 3-5 after enrollment, 28-day mortality and whether baseline AKI stages interacted with this association.

    RESULTS: Overall, 2552 patients were included, among whom 567 (22.2%) had AKI at enrollment (111 stage I, 87 stage II, 369 stage III). Mean early protein delivery was 0.60 ± 0.38 g/kg/day among the study patients. In the overall study cohort, each 0.1 g/kg/day increase in protein delivery was associated with a 5% reduction in 28-day mortality[hazard ratio (HR) = 0.95; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.92-0.98, p 

  14. Lam TT, Tang JW, Lai FY, Zaraket H, Dbaibo G, Bialasiewicz S, et al.
    J Infect, 2019 10;79(4):373-382.
    PMID: 31323249 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2019.07.008
    OBJECTIVES: To improve our understanding of the global epidemiology of common respiratory viruses by analysing their contemporaneous incidence at multiple sites.

    METHODS: 2010-2015 incidence data for influenza A (IAV), influenza B (IBV), respiratory syncytial (RSV) and parainfluenza (PIV) virus infections were collected from 18 sites (14 countries), consisting of local (n = 6), regional (n = 9) and national (n = 3) laboratories using molecular diagnostic methods. Each site submitted monthly virus incidence data, together with details of their patient populations tested and diagnostic assays used.

    RESULTS: For the Northern Hemisphere temperate countries, the IAV, IBV and RSV incidence peaks were 2-6 months out of phase with those in the Southern Hemisphere, with IAV having a sharp out-of-phase difference at 6 months, whereas IBV and RSV showed more variable out-of-phase differences of 2-6 months. The tropical sites Singapore and Kuala Lumpur showed fluctuating incidence of these viruses throughout the year, whereas subtropical sites such as Hong Kong, Brisbane and Sydney showed distinctive biannual peaks for IAV but not for RSV and PIV.

    CONCLUSIONS: There was a notable pattern of synchrony of IAV, IBV and RSV incidence peaks globally, and within countries with multiple sampling sites (Canada, UK, Australia), despite significant distances between these sites.

  15. Zeng G, Zhu W, Somani B, Choong S, Straub M, Maroccolo MV, et al.
    Urolithiasis, 2024 Sep 04;52(1):124.
    PMID: 39230669 DOI: 10.1007/s00240-024-01621-z
    The aim of this study was to construct the sixth in a series of guidelines on the treatment of urolithiasis by the International Alliance of Urolithiasis (IAU) that by providing a clinical framework for the management of pediatric patients with urolithiasis based on the best available published literature. All recommendations were summarized following a systematic review and assessment of literature in the PubMed database from January 1952 to December 2023. Each generated recommendation was graded using a modified GRADE methodology. Recommendations are agreed upon by Panel Members following review and discussion of the evidence. Guideline recommendations were developed that addressed the following topics: etiology, risk factors, clinical presentation and symptoms, diagnosis, conservative management, surgical interventions, prevention, and follow-up. Similarities in the treatment of primary stone episodes between children and adults, incorporating conservative management and advancements in technology for less invasive stone removal, are evident. Additionally, preventive strategies aiming to reduce recurrence rates, such as ensuring sufficient fluid intake, establishing well-planned dietary adjustments, and selective use pharmacologic therapies will also result in highly successful outcomes in pediatric stone patients. Depending on the severity of metabolic disorders and also anatomical abnormalities, a careful and close follow-up program should inevitably be planned in each pediatric patient to limit the risk of future recurrence rates.
  16. Sun R, Balabanova A, Bajada CJ, Liu Y, Kriuchok M, Voolma SR, et al.
    Emotion, 2024 Mar;24(2):397-411.
    PMID: 37616109 DOI: 10.1037/emo0001235
    The COVID-19 pandemic presents challenges to psychological well-being, but how can we predict when people suffer or cope during sustained stress? Here, we test the prediction that specific types of momentary emotional experiences are differently linked to psychological well-being during the pandemic. Study 1 used survey data collected from 24,221 participants in 51 countries during the COVID-19 outbreak. We show that, across countries, well-being is linked to individuals' recent emotional experiences, including calm, hope, anxiety, loneliness, and sadness. Consistent results are found in two age, sex, and ethnicity-representative samples in the United Kingdom (n = 971) and the United States (n = 961) with preregistered analyses (Study 2). A prospective 30-day daily diary study conducted in the United Kingdom (n = 110) confirms the key role of these five emotions and demonstrates that emotional experiences precede changes in well-being (Study 3). Our findings highlight differential relationships between specific types of momentary emotional experiences and well-being and point to the cultivation of calm and hope as candidate routes for well-being interventions during periods of sustained stress. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).
  17. Romanello M, McGushin A, Di Napoli C, Drummond P, Hughes N, Jamart L, et al.
    Lancet, 2021 Oct 30;398(10311):1619-1662.
    PMID: 34687662 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01787-6
    The Lancet Countdown is an international collaboration that independently monitors the health consequences of a changing climate. Publishing updated, new, and improved indicators each year, the Lancet Countdown represents the consensus of leading researchers from 43 academic institutions and UN agencies. The 44 indicators of this report expose an unabated rise in the health impacts of climate change and the current health consequences of the delayed and inconsistent response of countries around the globe—providing a clear imperative for accelerated action that puts the health of people and planet above all else. The 2021 report coincides with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26), at which countries are facing pressure to realise the ambition of the Paris Agreement to keep the global average temperature rise to 1·5°C and to mobilise the financial resources required for all countries to have an effective climate response. These negotiations unfold in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic—a global health crisis that has claimed millions of lives, affected livelihoods and communities around the globe, and exposed deep fissures and inequities in the world’s capacity to cope with, and respond to, health emergencies. Yet, in its response to both crises, the world is faced with an unprecedented opportunity to ensure a healthy future for all.

    DEEPENING INEQUITIES IN A WARMING WORLD: Record temperatures in 2020 resulted in a new high of 3·1 billion more person-days of heatwave exposure among people older than 65 years and 626 million more person-days affecting children younger than 1 year, compared with the annual average for the 1986–2005 baseline (indicator 1.1.2). Looking to 2021, people older than 65 years or younger than 1 year, along with people facing social disadvantages, were the most affected by the record-breaking temperatures of over 40°C in the Pacific Northwest areas of the USA and Canada in June, 2021—an event that would have been almost impossible without human-caused climate change. Although the exact number will not be known for several months, hundreds of people have died prematurely from the heat. Furthermore, populations in countries with low and medium levels of UN-defined human development index (HDI) have had the biggest increase in heat vulnerability during the past 30 years, with risks to their health further exacerbated by the low availability of cooling mechanisms and urban green space (indicators 1.1.1, 2.3.2, and 2.3.3). Agricultural workers in countries with low and medium HDI were among the worst affected by exposure to extreme temperatures, bearing almost half of the 295 billion potential work hours lost due to heat in 2020 (indicator 1.1.4). These lost work hours could have devastating economic consequences to these already vulnerable workers—data in this year’s report shows that the average potential earnings lost in countries in the low HDI group were equivalent to 4–8% of the national gross domestic product (indicator 4.1.3). Through these effects, rising average temperatures, and altered rainfall patterns, climate change is beginning to reverse years of progress in tackling the food and water insecurity that still affects the most underserved populations around the world, denying them an essential aspect of good health. During any given month in 2020, up to 19% of the global land surface was affected by extreme drought; a value that had not exceeded 13% between 1950 and 1999 (indicator 1.2.2). In parallel with drought, warm temperatures are affecting the yield potential of the world’s major staple crops—a 6·0% reduction for maize; 3·0% for winter wheat; 5·4% for soybean; and 1·8% for rice in 2020, relative to 1981–2010 (indicator 1.4.1)—exposing the rising risk of food insecurity. Adding to these health hazards, the changing environmental conditions are also increasing the suitability for the transmission of many water-borne, air-borne, food-borne, and vector-borne pathogens. Although socioeconomic development, public health interventions, and advances in medicine have reduced the global burden of infectious disease transmission, climate change could undermine eradication efforts. The number of months with environmentally suitable conditions for the transmission of malaria (Plasmodium falciparum) rose by 39% from 1950–59 to 2010–19 in densely populated highland areas in the low HDI group, threatening highly disadvantaged populations who were comparatively safer from this disease than those in the lowland areas (indicator 1.3.1). The epidemic potential for dengue virus, Zika virus, and chikungunya virus, which currently primarily affect populations in central America, South America, the Caribbean, Africa, and south Asia, increased globally, with a basic reproductive rate increase of 13% for transmission by Aedes aegypti and 7% for transmission by Aedes albopictus compared with the 1950s. The biggest relative increase in basic reproductive rate of these arboviruses was seen in countries in the very high HDI group (indicator 1.3.1); however, people in the low HDI group are confronted with the highest vulnerability to these arboviruses (indicator 1.3.2). Similar findings are observed in the environmental suitability for Vibrio cholerae, a pathogen estimated to cause almost 100 000 deaths annually, particularly among populations with poor access to safe water and sanitation. Between 2003 and 2019, the coastal areas suitable for V cholerae transmission increased substantially across all HDI country groups—although, with 98% of their coastline suitable to the transmission of V cholerae in 2020, it is people in the low HDI country group that have the highest environmental suitability for this disease (indicator 1.3.1). The concurrent and interconnecting risks posed by extreme weather events, infectious disease transmission, and food, water, and financial insecurity are over-burdening the most vulnerable populations. Through multiple simultaneous and interacting health risks, climate change is threatening to reverse years of progress in public health and sustainable development. Even with overwhelming evidence on the health impacts of climate change, countries are not delivering an adaptation response proportionate to the rising risks their populations face. In 2020, 104 (63%) of 166 countries did not have a high level of implementation of national health emergency frameworks, leaving them unprepared to respond to pandemics and climate-related health emergencies (indicator 2.3.1). Importantly, only 18 (55%) of 33 countries with a low HDI had reported at least a medium level of implementation of national health emergency frameworks, compared with 47 (89%) of 53 countries with a very high HDI. In addition, only 47 (52%) of 91 countries reported having a national adaptation plan for health, with insufficient human and financial resources identified as the main barrier for their implementation (indicator 2.1.1). With a world facing an unavoidable temperature rise, even with the most ambitious climate change mitigation, accelerated adaptation is essential to reduce the vulnerabilities of populations to climate change and protect the health of people around the world.

    AN INEQUITABLE RESPONSE FAILS EVERYONE: 10 months into 2021, global and equitable access to the COVID-19 vaccine had not been delivered—more than 60% of people in high-income countries have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine compared with just 3·5% of people in low-income countries. Data in this report exposes similar inequities in the global climate change mitigation response. To meet the Paris Agreement goals and prevent catastrophic levels of global warming, global greenhouse gas emissions must reduce by half within a decade. However, at the current pace of reduction, it would take more than 150 years for the energy system to fully decarbonise (indicator 3.1), and the unequal response between countries is resulting in an uneven realisation of the health benefits of a low-carbon transition. The use of public funds to subsidise fossil fuels is partly responsible for the slow decarbonisation rate. Of the 84 countries reviewed, 65 were still providing an overall subsidy to fossil fuels in 2018 and, in many cases, subsidies were equivalent to substantial proportions of the national health budget and could have been redirected to deliver net benefits to health and wellbeing. Furthermore, all the 19 countries whose carbon pricing policies outweighed the effect of any fossil fuels subsidies came from the very high HDI group (indicator 4.2.4). Although countries in the very high HDI group have collectively made the most progress in the decarbonisation of the energy system, they are still the main contributors to CO2 emissions through the local production of goods and services, accounting for 45% of the global total (indicator 4.2.5). With a slower pace of decarbonisation and poorer air quality regulations than countries in the very high HDI group, the medium and high HDI country groups produce the most fine particle matter (PM2·5) emissions and have the highest rates of air pollution-related deaths, which are about 50% higher than the total deaths in the very high HDI group (indicator 3.3). The low HDI group, with comparatively lower amounts of industrial activity than in the other groups, has a local production that contributes to only 0·7% of global CO2 emissions, and has the lowest mortality rate from ambient air pollution. However, with only 12% of its inhabitants relying on clean fuels and technologies for cooking, the health of these populations is still at risk from dangerously high concentrations of household air pollution (indicator 3.2). Even in the most affluent countries, people in the most deprived areas over-whelmingly bear the burden of health effects from exposure to air pollution. These findings expose the health costs of the delayed and unequal mitigation response and underscore the millions of deaths to be prevented annually through a low-carbon transition that prioritises the health of all populations. However, the world is not on track to realising the health gains of the transition to a low-carbon economy. Current global decarbonisation commitments are insufficient to meet Paris Agreement ambitions and would lead to a roughly 2·4°C average global temperature increase by the end of the century. The current direction of post-COVID-19 spending is threatening to make this situation worse, with just 18% of all the funds committed for economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic by the end of 2020 expected to lead to a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Indeed, the economic recovery from the pandemic is already predicted to lead to an unprecedented 5% increase in greenhouse gas emissions in 2021, which will bring global anthropogenic emissions back to their peak amounts. In addition, the current economic recession is threatening to undermine the target of mobilising US$100 billion per year from 2020 onwards to promote low-carbon shifts and adaptation responses in the most underserved countries, even though this quantity is minute compared with the trillions allocated to COVID-19 recovery. The high amounts of borrowing that countries have had to resort to during the pandemic could erase their ability to deliver a green recovery and maximise the health gains to their population of a low-carbon transition.

    AN UNPRECEDENTED OPPORTUNITY TO ENSURE A HEALTHY FUTURE FOR ALL: The overshoot in emissions resulting from a carbon-intensive COVID-19 recovery would irreversibly prevent the world from meeting climate commitments and the Sustainable Development Goals and lock humanity into an increasingly extreme and unpredictable environment. Data in this report expose the health impacts and health inequities of the current world at 1·2°C of warming above pre-industrial levels and supports that, on the current trajectory, climate change will become the defining narrative of human health. However, by directing the trillions of dollars that will be committed to COVID-19 recovery towards the WHO’s prescriptions for a healthy, green recovery, the world could meet the Paris Agreement goals, protect the natural systems that support wellbeing, and minimise inequities through reduced health effects and maximised co-benefits of a universal low-carbon transition. Promoting equitable climate change mitigation and universal access to clean energies could prevent millions of deaths annually from reduced exposure to air pollution, healthier diets, and more active lifestyles, and contribute to reducing health inequities globally. This pivotal moment of economic stimulus represents a historical opportunity to secure the health of present and future generations. There is a glimpse of positive change through several promising trends in this year’s data: electricity generation from renewable wind and solar energy increased by an annual average of 17% between 2013 and 2018 (indicator 3.1); investment in new coal capacity decreased by 10% in 2020 (indicator 4.2.1); and the global number of electric vehicles reached 7·2 million in 2019 (indicator 3.4). Additionally, the global pandemic has driven increased engagement in health and climate change across multiple domains in society, with 91 heads of state making the connection in the 2020 UN General Debate and newly widespread engagement among countries in the very high HDI group (indicator 5.4). Whether COVID-19 recovery supports, or reverses these trends, is yet to be seen. Neither COVID-19 nor climate change respect national borders. Without widespread, accessible vaccination across all countries and societies, SARS-CoV-2 and its new variants will continue to put the health of everybody at risk. Likewise, tackling climate change requires all countries to deliver an urgent and coordinated response, with COVID-19 recovery funds allocated to support and ensure a just transition to a low-carbon future and climate change adaptation across the globe. Leaders of the world have an unprecedented opportunity to deliver a future of improved health, reduced inequity, and economic and environmental sustainability. However, this will only be possible if the world acts together to ensure that no person is left behind.

  18. Watts N, Amann M, Arnell N, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Beagley J, Belesova K, et al.
    Lancet, 2021 Jan 09;397(10269):129-170.
    PMID: 33278353 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32290-X
    For the Chinese, French, German, and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
  19. Watts N, Amann M, Arnell N, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Belesova K, Boykoff M, et al.
    Lancet, 2019 Nov 16;394(10211):1836-1878.
    PMID: 31733928 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32596-6
    The Lancet Countdown is an international, multidisciplinary collaboration, dedicated to monitoring the evolving health profile of climate change, and providing an independent assessment of the delivery of commitments made by governments worldwide under the Paris Agreement. The 2019 report presents an annual update of 41 indicators across five key domains: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. The report represents the findings and consensus of 35 leading academic institutions and UN agencies from every continent. Each year, the methods and data that underpin the Lancet Countdown’s indicators are further developed and improved, with updates described at each stage of this report. The collaboration draws on the world-class expertise of climate scientists; ecologists; mathematicians; engineers; energy, food, and transport experts; economists; social and political scientists; public health professionals; and doctors, to generate the quality and diversity of data required. The science of climate change describes a range of possible futures, which are largely dependent on the degree of action or inaction in the face of a warming world. The policies implemented will have far-reaching effects in determining these eventualities, with the indicators tracked here monitoring both the present-day effects of climate change, as well as the worldwide response. Understanding these decisions as a choice between one of two pathways—one that continues with the business as usual response and one that redirects to a future that remains “well below 2°C”—helps to bring the importance of recognising the effects of climate change and the necessary response to the forefront. Evidence provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the International Energy Agency, and the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration clarifies the degree and magnitude of climate change experienced today and contextualises these two pathways.

    THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HUMAN HEALTH: The world has observed a 1°C temperature rise above pre-industrial levels, with feedback cycles and polar amplification resulting in a rise as high as 3°C in north western Canada., Eight of the ten hottest years on record have occurred in the past decade. Such rapid change is primarily driven by the combustion of fossil fuels, consumed at a rate of 171 000 kg of coal, 116 000 000 L of gas, and 186 000 L of oil per s.– Progress in mitigating this threat is intermittent at best, with carbon dioxide emissions continuing to rise in 2018. Importantly, many of the indicators contained in this report suggest the world is following this “business as usual” pathway. The carbon intensity of the energy system has remained unchanged since 1990 (indicator 3.1.1), and from 2016 to 2018, total primary energy supply from coal increased by 1·7%, reversing a previously recorded downward trend (indicator 3.1.2). Correspondingly, the health-care sector is responsible for about 4·6% of global emissions, a value which is steadily rising across most major economies (indicator 3.6). Global fossil fuel consumption subsidies increased by 50% over the past 3 years, reaching a peak of almost US$430 billion in 2018 (indicator 4.4.1). A child born today will experience a world that is more than four degrees warmer than the pre-industrial average, with climate change impacting human health from infancy and adolescence to adulthood and old age. Across the world, children are among the worst affected by climate change. Downward trends in global yield potential for all major crops tracked since 1960 threaten food production and food security, with infants often the worst affected by the potentially permanent effects of undernutrition (indicator 1.5.1). Children are among the most susceptible to diarrhoeal disease and experience the most severe effects of dengue fever. Trends in climate suitability for disease transmission are particularly concerning, with nine of the ten most suitable years for the transmission of dengue fever on record occurring since 2000 (indicator 1.4.1). Similarly, since an early 1980s baseline, the number of days suitable for Vibrio (a pathogen responsible for part of the burden of diarrhoeal disease) has doubled, and global suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae has increased by 9·9% indicator 1.4.1). Through adolescence and beyond, air pollution—principally driven by fossil fuels, and exacerbated by climate change—damages the heart, lungs, and every other vital organ. These effects accumulate over time, and into adulthood, with global deaths attributable to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2·5) remaining at 2·9 million in 2016 (indicator 3.3.2) and total global air pollution deaths reaching 7 million. Later in life, families and livelihoods are put at risk from increases in the frequency and severity of extreme weather conditions, with women among the most vulnerable across a range of social and cultural contexts. Globally, 77% of countries experienced an increase in daily population exposure to wildfires from 2001–14 to 2015–18 (indicator 1.2.1). India and China sustained the largest increases, with an increase of over 21 million exposures in India and 17 million exposures in China over this time period. In low-income countries, almost all economic losses from extreme weather events are uninsured, placing a particularly high burden on individuals and households (indicator 4.1). Temperature rise and heatwaves are increasingly limiting the labour capacity of various populations. In 2018, 133·6 billion potential work hours were lost globally, 45 billion more than the 2000 baseline, and southern areas of the USA lost 15–20% of potential daylight work hours during the hottest month of 2018 (indicator 1.1.4). Populations aged 65 years and older are particularly vulnerable to the health effects of climate change, and especially to extremes of heat. From 1990 to 2018, populations in every region have become more vulnerable to heat and heatwaves, with Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean remaining the most vulnerable (indicator 1.1.1). In 2018, these vulnerable populations experienced 220 million heatwave exposures globally, breaking the previous record of 209 million set in 2015 (indicator 1.1.3). Already faced with the challenge of an ageing population, Japan had 32 million heatwave exposures affecting people aged 65 years and older in 2018, the equivalent of almost every person in this age group experiencing a heatwave. Finally, although difficult to quantify, the downstream risks of climate change, such as migration, poverty exacerbation, violent conflict, and mental illness, affect people of all ages and all nationalities. A business as usual trajectory will result in a fundamentally altered world, with the indicators described providing a glimpse of the implications of this pathway. The life of every child born today will be profoundly affected by climate change. Without accelerated intervention, this new era will come to define the health of people at every stage of their lives.

    RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE FOR HEALTH: The Paris Agreement has set a target of “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1·5°C.” In a world that matches this ambition, a child born today would see the phase-out of all coal in the UK and Canada by their sixth and 11th birthday; they would see France ban the sale of petrol and diesel cars by their 21st birthday; and they would be 31 years old by the time the world reaches net-zero in 2050, with the UK’s recent commitment to reach this goal one of many to come. The changes seen in this alternate pathway could result in cleaner air, safer cities, and more nutritious food, coupled with renewed investment in health systems and vital infrastructure. This second path—which limits the global average temperature rise to “well below 2°C”—is possible, and would transform the health of a child born today for the better, right the way through their life. Considering the evidence available in the 2019 indicators, such a transition could be beginning to unfold. Despite a small increase in coal use in 2018, in key countries such as China, it continued to decrease as a share of electricity generation (indicator 3.1.2). Correspondingly, renewables accounted for 45% of global growth in power generation capacity that year, and low-carbon electricity reached a high of 32% of global electricity in 2016 (indicator 3.1.3). Global per capita use of electric vehicles increased by 20·6% between 2015 and 2016, and now represents 1·8% of China’s total transportation fuel use (indicator 3.4). Improvements in air pollution seen in Europe from 2015 to 2016, could result in a reduction of Years of Life Lost (YLL) worth €5·2 billion annually, if this reduction remained constant across a lifetime (indicator 4.2). In several cases, the economic savings from a healthier and more productive workforce, with fewer health-care expenses, will cover the initial investment costs of these interventions. Similarly, cities and health systems are becoming more resilient to the effects of climate change; about 50% of countries and 69% of cities surveyed reported efforts to conduct national health adaptation plans or climate change risk assessments (indicators 2.1.1, 2.1.2, and 2.1.3). These plans are now being implemented, with the number of countries providing climate services to the health sector increasing from 55 in 2018 to 70 in 2019 (indicator 2.2) and 109 countries reporting medium to high implementation of a national health emergency framework (indicator 2.3.1). Growing demand is coupled with a steady increase in health adaptation spending, which represents 5% (£13 billion) of total adaptation funding in 2018 and has increased by 11·8% over the past 12 months (indicator 2.4). This increase is in part funded by growing revenues from carbon pricing mechanisms, with a 30% increase to US$43 billion in funds raised between 2017 and 2018 (indicator 4.4.3). However, current progress is inadequate, and despite the beginnings of the transition described, the indicators published in the Lancet Countdown’s 2019 report are suggestive of a world struggling to cope with warming that is occurring faster than governments are able, or willing to respond. Opportunities are being missed, with the Green Climate Fund yet to receive projects specifically focused on improving climate-related public health, despite the fact that in other forums, leaders of small island developing states are recognising the links between health and climate change (indicator 5.3). In response, the generation that will be most affected by climate change has led a wave of school strikes across the world. Bold new approaches to policy making, research, and business are needed in order to change course. An unprecedented challenge demands an unprecedented response, and it will take the work of the 7·5 billion people currently alive to ensure that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate.

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