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  1. Musa MI, Shohaimi S, Hashim NR, Krishnarajah I
    Geospat Health, 2012 Nov;7(1):27-36.
    PMID: 23242678
    Malaria remains a major health problem in Sudan. With a population exceeding 39 million, there are around 7.5 million cases and 35,000 deaths every year. The predicted distribution of malaria derived from climate factors such as maximum and minimum temperatures, rainfall and relative humidity was compared with the actual number of malaria cases in Sudan for the period 2004 to 2010. The predictive calculations were done by fuzzy logic suitability (FLS) applied to the numerical distribution of malaria transmission based on the life cycle characteristics of the Anopheles mosquito accounting for the impact of climate factors on malaria transmission. This information is visualized as a series of maps (presented in video format) using a geographical information systems (GIS) approach. The climate factors were found to be suitable for malaria transmission in the period of May to October, whereas the actual case rates of malaria were high from June to November indicating a positive correlation. While comparisons between the prediction model for June and the case rate model for July did not show a high degree of association (18%), the results later in the year were better, reaching the highest level (55%) for October prediction and November case rate.
  2. Balami, A. A., Dauda S. M., Mohammed, I. S., Agunsoye, J. K., Abu, H., 1 Abubakar, Ahmad, D.
    MyJurnal
    The processing of cocoyam tubers for industrial or human use involves different operations
    of which peeling is the major problem. This study was aimed at designing, fabricating and
    carrying out performance evaluation of a cocoyam peeling machine, taking into consideration
    some physical and mechanical properties of the cocoyam tubers. The machine was evaluated
    based on the following parameters which includes; throughput capacity and peeling efficiency
    at the speeds of 400 rpm, 700 rpm and 933 rpm. Results revealed that, for all the speeds tested
    in the experiment, the corresponding peeling efficiencies of the machine were 50%, 64% and
    68% respectively while that of the throughput capacities were 63.20 kg/hr, 84.90 kg/hr and
    112.92 kg/hr respectively. It was observed that 933 rpm speed was the most suitable speed for
    the operation of this machine, as it had higher peeling efficiency of 68% with a throughput
    capacity of 112.92 kg/hr. These results showed appreciable improvement over manual method
    which is 20 – 35 kg/hr.
  3. Hudu SA, Niazlin MT, Nordin SA, Saeed MI, Tan SS, Omar H, et al.
    Clin. Lab., 2018 Apr 01;64(4):443-449.
    PMID: 29739076 DOI: 10.7754/Clin.Lab.2017.170916
    BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B surface antigen is usually secreted by infected hepatocytes in the form of subviral particles rather than infectious virions, while the hepatitis B e antigen originates from the core gene and is modified and secreted by hepatocytes into the circulation and functions as a marker of active viral replication. This study aimed to study the relationship between HBV DNA and quantitative hepatitis B surface and e antigen in Malaysian patients.

    METHODS: A total of 82 chronic hepatitis B patients were recruited for this study from the Hepatology Department of Selayang Hospital. Quantitative hepatitis surface and e antigen was performed retrospectively on frozen plasma using enzyme linked immunosorbent assay according to the manufacturer's instructions. Hepatitis B viral DNA was extracted from all plasma samples and quantified using real-time PCR.

    RESULTS: Quantitative hepatitis B surface and e antigens were found be high in 54.9% and 52.4% of the patients, respectively, while hepatitis B virus DNA level was high in 70.7%. The median of the viral load of HBV was 8,934.89 IU/mL and both hepatitis B surface and e antigens were also found to be high on average for qHBsAg (M = 5.19 IU/mL, SD ± 4. 33) and qHBeAg (M = 4.74IU/mL, SD ± 4.20), with qHBeAg being more strongly correlated to HBV DNA than qHBsAg (r = 0.893; p < 0.01).

    CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed HBeAg to be the most appropriate marker that correlates well with HBV DNA, thus not completely novel but confirmative, and related to the Malaysian situation.

  4. Zakaria N, Zakaria N, Alnobani O, AlMalki M, El-Hassan O, Alhefzi MI, et al.
    Int J Med Inform, 2023 Feb;170:104914.
    PMID: 36521421 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2022.104914
    BACKGROUND: During the past two decades, various sectors and industries have undergone digital transformation. Healthcare is poised to make a full transformation in the near future. Although steps have been taken toward creating an infrastructure for digital health in the Middle East, as it stands, digital health is still an emerging field here. The current global health care crisis has underscoredthe need for digitization of the healthcare sector to provide high-value, high-quality care and knowledge generation. With the advent of digital transformation in countries around the globe, there is a rising demand for investment and innovation in health information technology. With the demand for health informatics (HI) graduates in different disciplines (e.g., healthcare professions, information technology, etc.), there is an urgent need to determine and regulate clear career pathways and the core competencies necessary for digital health professional to practice effectively and to allow technology to add value to the healthcare systems. Given the changing landscape of the profession, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are experiencing a rising demand to produce digital health professionals who can meet the needs of all the stakeholders involved, including patients, healthcare professionals, managers, and policymakers. However, despite the number of region-wide initiatives in the form of training programs, there remains a knowledge-practice gap and unclear job roles within the HI community. In recent years, regional digital health workforce initiatives have been put forward, such as the GCC Taskforce on Workforce Development in Digital Healthcare. The taskforce initiated a survey and several workshops to identify and classify HI disciplines according to the needs of the job market and through comparisons with similar efforts developed across the globe, such as the TIGER project and the EU*US eHealth Work project. Digital health implementation has been flourishing in the Middle East for the past 15 years. During this period, while digital health professions have been thriving in the industry to deliver tools and technologies, academic institutions have offered some amount of training and education in digital health; however, the career pathway for digital health professionals is not clear due to mismatch about the qualifications, skills, competencies and experience needed by the healthcare industry.

    OBJECTIVES: Due to this discrepancy between the academic curriculum and the skills needed in the healthcare industry, the objectives of this study are to define the career pathway for eHealth professions and identify the challenges experienced by academic institutions and the industry in describing digital health professionals.

    METHODS: We elicited qualitative data by conducting six focus groups with individuals from different professional backgrounds, including healthcare workers, information managers, computer sciences professionals, and workers in the revenue cycle who participated in a workshop on November 2-3, 2019, in Dubai. All focus group sessions were audio-recorded and transcribed, and participants were de-identified before analysis. An exploratory method was used to identify themes and subthemes. Saturation was reached when similar responses were found during the analysis. In this study, we found that respondents clearly defined eHealth career pathways based on criteria that included qualifications, experience, job scope, and competency. We also explored the challenges that the respondents encountered, including differences in the required skill sets and training and the need to standardize the academic curriculum across the GCC region, to recognize the various career pathways, and to develop local training programs. Additionally, country-specific projects have been initiated, such as the competency-based Digital Health framework, which was developed by the Saudi Commission of Healthcare Specialties (SCFHS) in 2018. Competency-based digital health frameworks generally include relevant job definitions, roles, and recommended competencies. Both the GCC taskforce and the Saudi studies capitalized on previous efforts by professional organizations, including Canada's Digital Health formerly known as (COACH), the U.S. Office of the National Coordinator for Health Information Technology (ONC), the American Medical Informatics Association (AMIA), and the Health Information and Management Systems Society (HIMSS).

    RESULTS: In this study, we found that respondents defined eHealth career pathways based on different criteria such as: qualifications; various background of health and IT in the HI field; work experiences; job scope and competency. We also further explore the challenges that the respondents encountered which delineates four key aspects such as need of hybrid skills to manage the digital transformation, need of standardization of academic curriculum across GCC, recognition of the career pathways by the industry in order to open up career opportunity and career advancement, and availability of local training programs for up-skilling the current health workforce.

    CONCLUSION: We believe that successful health digital transformation is not limited to technology advancement but requires an adaptive change in: the related competency-based frameworks, the organisation of work and career paths for eHealth professionals, and the development of educational programmes and joint degrees to equip clinicians with understanding of technology, and informaticians with understanding of healthcare. We anticipate that this work will be expanded and adopted by relevant professional and scientific bodies in the GCC region.

  5. Hudu SA, Harmal NS, Saeed MI, Alshrari AS, Malik YA, Niazlin MT, et al.
    Afr Health Sci, 2016 Sep;16(3):677-683.
    PMID: 27917199
    BACKGROUND: Occult hepatitis B infections are becoming a major global threat, but the available data on its prevalence in various parts of the world are often divergent.

    OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to detect occult hepatitis B virus in hepatitis B surface antigen-negative serum using anti-HBc as a marker of previous infection.

    PATIENT AND METHODS: A total of 1000 randomly selected hepatitis B surface antigen-negative sera from blood donors were tested for hepatitis B core antibody and hepatitis B surface antibody using an ELISA and nested polymerase chain reaction was done using primers specific to the surface gene (S-gene).

    RESULTS: Of the 1000 samples 55 (5.5%) were found to be reactive, of which 87.3% (48/55) were positive for hepatitis B surface antibody, indicating immunity as a result of previous infection however, that does not exclude active infection with escaped mutant HBV. Nested PCR results showed the presence of hepatitis B viral DNA in all the 55 samples that were positive for core protein, which is in agreement with the hepatitis B surface antibody result.

    CONCLUSION: This study reveals the 5.5% prevalence of occult hepatitis B among Malaysian blood donors as well as the reliability of using hepatitis B core antibody in screening for occult hepatitis B infection in low endemic, low socioeconomic settings.

  6. Al Momani D, Al Turk Y, Abuashour MI, Khalid HM, Muyeen SM, Sweidan TO, et al.
    Heliyon, 2023 Mar;9(3):e14216.
    PMID: 36923846 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e14216
    An energy audit (EA) is a crucial step in boosting factory energy efficiency and obtaining certification for cleaner manufacturing. The results of a preliminary energy audit carried out at a sizable industrial facility in Jordan that creates some of the most well-known foods in the Middle East are presented in this study. The monthly demand of the factory for diesel ranged from 75,251.545 to 166,666.67 L. The factory energy model which is used to examine the impact of various energy-saving practices on the factory's primary energy consumption, was developed with the help of the energy audit. It has been established that optimizing the factory's energy use and the boiler systems' performance with regards to diesel consumption can withstand an expected monthly financial savings of 14205.85 Jordanian Dinar (JD). This has allowed a reduction in energy use of up to 18%. The CO2 harmful emissions were also decreased. Additionally, it is estimated that switching from the proposed motors to energy-efficient motors will cost less overall over time, saving around 3472.314 JD/month or 0.33576/year on average. Moreover, it was discovered that a total of 772.82021 Ton CO2/year emissions may be avoided each year.
  7. Al Momani D, Al Turk Y, Abuashour MI, Khalid HM, Muyeen SM, Sweidan TO, et al.
    Heliyon, 2023 Jun;9(6):e16551.
    PMID: 37484411 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e16551
    [This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e14216.].
  8. Wahid HH, Anahar FN, Isahak NH, Mohd Zoharodzi J, Mohammad Khoiri SNL, Mohamad Zainal NH, et al.
    Am J Pathol, 2024 Jun;194(6):862-878.
    PMID: 38403163 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajpath.2024.01.018
    Nearly 70% of preterm deliveries occur spontaneously, and the clinical pathways involved include preterm labor and preterm premature rupture of membranes. Prediction of preterm delivery is considered crucial due to the significant effects of preterm birth on health and the economy at both the personal and community levels. Although similar inflammatory processes occur in both term and preterm delivery, the premature activation of these processes or exaggerated inflammatory response triggered by infection or sterile factors leads to preterm delivery. Platelet activating factor (PAF) is a phosphoglycerylether lipid mediator of inflammation that is implicated in infections, cancers, and various chronic diseases and disorders including cardiovascular, renal, cerebrovascular, and central nervous system diseases. In gestational tissues, PAF mediates the inflammatory pathways that stimulate the effector mechanisms of labor, including myometrial contraction, cervical dilation, and fetal membrane rupture. Women with preterm labor and preterm premature rupture of membranes have increased levels of PAF in their amniotic fluid. In mice, the intrauterine or intraperitoneal administration of carbamyl PAF activates inflammation in gestational tissues, thereby eliciting preterm delivery. This review summarizes recent research on PAF as an important inflammatory mediator in preterm delivery and in other inflammatory disorders, highlighting its potential value for prediction, intervention, and prevention of these diseases.
  9. Bender O, Shoman ME, Ali TFS, Dogan R, Celik I, Mollica A, et al.
    Arch Pharm (Weinheim), 2023 Feb;356(2):e2200407.
    PMID: 36403191 DOI: 10.1002/ardp.202200407
    FMS-like tyrosine kinase 3 (FLT3) mutations occur in approximately 30% of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients. In the current study, the oxindole chemotype is employed as a structural motif for the design of new FLT3 inhibitors as potential hits for AML irradiation. Cell-based screening was performed with 18 oxindole derivatives and 5a-c inhibited 68%-73% and 83%-91% of internal tandem duplication (ITD)-mutated MV4-11 cell growth for 48- and 72-h treatments while only 0%-2% and 27%-39% in wild-type THP-1 cells. The most potent compound 5a inhibited MV4-11 cells with IC50 of 4.3 µM at 72 h while it was 8.7 µM in THP-1 cells, thus showing two-fold selective inhibition against the oncogenic ITD mutation. The ability of 5a to modulate cell death was examined. High-throughput protein profiling revealed low levels of the growth factors IGFBP-2 and -4 with the blockage of various apoptotic inhibitors such as Survivin. p21 with cellular stress mechanisms was characterized by increased expression of HSP proteins along with TNF-β. Mechanistically, compounds 5a and 5b inhibited FLT3 kinase with IC50 values of 2.49 and 1.45 µM, respectively. Theoretical docking studies supported the compounds' ability to bind to the FLT3 ATP binding site with the formation of highly stable complexes as evidenced by molecular dynamics simulations. The designed compounds also provide suitable drug candidates with no violation of drug likeability rules.
  10. Elkhalifa AME, Elderdery AY, Al Bataj IA, Tamomh AG, Alyami MM, Almakrami HA, et al.
    Biomed Res Int, 2022;2022:4620037.
    PMID: 35224093 DOI: 10.1155/2022/4620037
    COVID-19 is a global pandemic viral infection that has affected millions worldwide. Limited data is available on the effect of COVID-19 on hematological parameters in Saudi Arabia. This study is aimed at examining the role of hematological parameters among COVID-19 patients admitted to King Khalid Hospital in Najran, Saudi Arabia. This is a retrospective, hospital-based study of 514 cases who were recruited during August to October 2020. 257 COVID-19 patients formed the study group, and a further 257 negative subjects formed the control group. Anemia was significantly elevated in positive subjects over controls (respectively, 64.2% and 35.8%), with patients 2.5 times more likely to be anemic (p < 0.01). Thrombocytopenia was higher in patients over controls (respectively, 62% and 38%), with patients ~1.7 times more likely to be thrombocytopenic (p < 0.01). Moreover, leukopenia was significantly higher in patients over controls (respectively, 71% and 29%), with positive subjects ~2.6 times more likely to be leukopenic. Our study results indicate that mild anemia associated with leukopenia may have diagnostic value for COVID-19. Careful assessment of hematological parameters, at baseline and throughout the disease path, will assist physicians in formulating personalized approaches to treatment and promptly offer intensive care to those in greater need.
  11. Iskandar K, Molinier L, Hallit S, Sartelli M, Hardcastle TC, Haque M, et al.
    Antimicrob Resist Infect Control, 2021 03 31;10(1):63.
    PMID: 33789754 DOI: 10.1186/s13756-021-00931-w
    Data on comprehensive population-based surveillance of antimicrobial resistance is lacking. In low- and middle-income countries, the challenges are high due to weak laboratory capacity, poor health systems governance, lack of health information systems, and limited resources. Developing countries struggle with political and social dilemma, and bear a high health and economic burden of communicable diseases. Available data are fragmented and lack representativeness which limits their use to advice health policy makers and orientate the efficient allocation of funding and financial resources on programs to mitigate resistance. Low-quality data means soaring rates of antimicrobial resistance and the inability to track and map the spread of resistance, detect early outbreaks, and set national health policy to tackle resistance. Here, we review the barriers and limitations of conducting effective antimicrobial resistance surveillance, and we highlight multiple incremental approaches that may offer opportunities to strengthen population-based surveillance if tailored to the context of each country.
  12. van Breen JA, Kutlaca M, Koç Y, Jeronimus BF, Reitsema AM, Jovanović V, et al.
    Pers Soc Psychol Bull, 2021 Aug 25.
    PMID: 34433352 DOI: 10.1177/01461672211036602
    We examine how social contacts and feelings of solidarity shape experiences of loneliness during the COVID-19 lockdown in early 2020. From the PsyCorona database, we obtained longitudinal data from 23 countries, collected between March and May 2020. The results demonstrated that although online contacts help to reduce feelings of loneliness, people who feel more lonely are less likely to use that strategy. Solidarity played only a small role in shaping feelings of loneliness during lockdown. Thus, it seems we must look beyond the current focus on online contact and solidarity to help people address feelings of loneliness during lockdown. Finally, online contacts did not function as a substitute for face-to-face contacts outside the home-in fact, more frequent online contact in earlier weeks predicted more frequent face-to-face contacts in later weeks. As such, this work provides relevant insights into how individuals manage the impact of restrictions on their social lives.
  13. Resta E, Mula S, Baldner C, Di Santo D, Agostini M, Bélanger JJ, et al.
    PMID: 34898961 DOI: 10.1002/casp.2572
    The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused a global health crisis. Consequently, many countries have adopted restrictive measures that caused a substantial change in society. Within this framework, it is reasonable to suppose that a sentiment of societal discontent, defined as generalized concern about the precarious state of society, has arisen. Literature shows that collectively experienced situations can motivate people to help each other. Since societal discontent is conceptualized as a collective phenomenon, we argue that it could influence intention to help others, particularly those who suffer from coronavirus. Thus, in the present study, we aimed (a) to explore the relationship between societal discontent and intention to help at the individual level and (b) to investigate a possible moderating effect of societal discontent at the country level on this relationship. To fulfil our purposes, we used data collected in 42 countries (N = 61,734) from the PsyCorona Survey, a cross-national longitudinal study. Results of multilevel analysis showed that, when societal discontent is experienced by the entire community, individuals dissatisfied with society are more prone to help others. Testing the model with longitudinal data (N = 3,817) confirmed our results. Implications for those findings are discussed in relation to crisis management. Please refer to the Supplementary Material section to find this article's Community and Social Impact Statement.
  14. Enea V, Eisenbeck N, Carreno DF, Douglas KM, Sutton RM, Agostini M, et al.
    Health Commun, 2023 Jul;38(8):1530-1539.
    PMID: 35081848 DOI: 10.1080/10410236.2021.2018179
    Understanding the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine uptake is important to inform policy decisions and plan vaccination campaigns. The aims of this research were to: (1) explore the individual- and country-level determinants of intentions to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2, and (2) examine worldwide variation in vaccination intentions. This cross-sectional online survey was conducted during the first wave of the pandemic, involving 6697 respondents across 20 countries. Results showed that 72.9% of participants reported positive intentions to be vaccinated against COVID-19, whereas 16.8% were undecided, and 10.3% reported they would not be vaccinated. At the individual level, prosociality was a significant positive predictor of vaccination intentions, whereas generic beliefs in conspiracy theories and religiosity were negative predictors. Country-level determinants, including cultural dimensions of individualism/collectivism and power distance, were not significant predictors of vaccination intentions. Altogether, this study identifies individual-level predictors that are common across multiple countries, provides further evidence on the importance of combating conspiracy theories, involving religious institutions in vaccination campaigns, and stimulating prosocial motives to encourage vaccine uptake.
  15. Stroebe W, vanDellen MR, Abakoumkin G, Lemay EP, Schiavone WM, Agostini M, et al.
    PLoS One, 2021;16(10):e0256740.
    PMID: 34669724 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0256740
    During the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. conservative politicians and the media downplayed the risk of both contracting COVID-19 and the effectiveness of recommended health behaviors. Health behavior theories suggest perceived vulnerability to a health threat and perceived effectiveness of recommended health-protective behaviors determine motivation to follow recommendations. Accordingly, we predicted that-as a result of politicization of the pandemic-politically conservative Americans would be less likely to enact recommended health-protective behaviors. In two longitudinal studies of U.S. residents, political conservatism was inversely associated with perceived health risk and adoption of health-protective behaviors over time. The effects of political orientation on health-protective behaviors were mediated by perceived risk of infection, perceived severity of infection, and perceived effectiveness of the health-protective behaviors. In a global cross-national analysis, effects were stronger in the U.S. (N = 10,923) than in an international sample (total N = 51,986), highlighting the increased and overt politicization of health behaviors in the U.S.
  16. Westgate EC, Buttrick NR, Lin Y, El Helou G, Agostini M, Bélanger JJ, et al.
    Emotion, 2023 Dec;23(8):2370-2384.
    PMID: 36913277 DOI: 10.1037/emo0001118
    Some public officials have expressed concern that policies mandating collective public health behaviors (e.g., national/regional "lockdown") may result in behavioral fatigue that ultimately renders such policies ineffective. Boredom, specifically, has been singled out as one potential risk factor for noncompliance. We examined whether there was empirical evidence to support this concern during the COVID-19 pandemic in a large cross-national sample of 63,336 community respondents from 116 countries. Although boredom was higher in countries with more COVID-19 cases and in countries that instituted more stringent lockdowns, such boredom did not predict longitudinal within-person decreases in social distancing behavior (or vice versa; n = 8,031) in early spring and summer of 2020. Overall, we found little evidence that changes in boredom predict individual public health behaviors (handwashing, staying home, self-quarantining, and avoiding crowds) over time, or that such behaviors had any reliable longitudinal effects on boredom itself. In summary, contrary to concerns, we found little evidence that boredom posed a public health risk during lockdown and quarantine. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).
  17. Nisa CF, Bélanger JJ, Faller DG, Buttrick NR, Mierau JO, Austin MMK, et al.
    Sci Rep, 2021 May 06;11(1):9669.
    PMID: 33958617 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-88314-4
    This paper examines whether compliance with COVID-19 mitigation measures is motivated by wanting to save lives or save the economy (or both), and which implications this carries to fight the pandemic. National representative samples were collected from 24 countries (N = 25,435). The main predictors were (1) perceived risk to contract coronavirus, (2) perceived risk to suffer economic losses due to coronavirus, and (3) their interaction effect. Individual and country-level variables were added as covariates in multilevel regression models. We examined compliance with various preventive health behaviors and support for strict containment policies. Results show that perceived economic risk consistently predicted mitigation behavior and policy support-and its effects were positive. Perceived health risk had mixed effects. Only two significant interactions between health and economic risk were identified-both positive.
  18. Schumpe BM, Van Lissa CJ, Bélanger JJ, Ruggeri K, Mierau J, Nisa CF, et al.
    Sci Rep, 2022 Mar 09;12(1):3824.
    PMID: 35264597 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-04703-9
    The present paper examines longitudinally how subjective perceptions about COVID-19, one's community, and the government predict adherence to public health measures to reduce the spread of the virus. Using an international survey (N = 3040), we test how infection risk perception, trust in the governmental response and communications about COVID-19, conspiracy beliefs, social norms on distancing, tightness of culture, and community punishment predict various containment-related attitudes and behavior. Autoregressive analyses indicate that, at the personal level, personal hygiene behavior was predicted by personal infection risk perception. At social level, social distancing behaviors such as abstaining from face-to-face contact were predicted by perceived social norms. Support for behavioral mandates was predicted by confidence in the government and cultural tightness, whereas support for anti-lockdown protests was predicted by (lower) perceived clarity of communication about the virus. Results are discussed in light of policy implications and creating effective interventions.
  19. Mula S, Di Santo D, Resta E, Bakhtiari F, Baldner C, Molinario E, et al.
    PMID: 35098189 DOI: 10.1016/j.cresp.2021.100028
    Tightening social norms is thought to be adaptive for dealing with collective threat yet it may have negative consequences for increasing prejudice. The present research investigated the role of desire for cultural tightness, triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, in increasing negative attitudes towards immigrants. We used participant-level data from 41 countries (N = 55,015) collected as part of the PsyCorona project, a cross-national longitudinal study on responses to COVID-19. Our predictions were tested through multilevel and SEM models, treating participants as nested within countries. Results showed that people's concern with COVID-19 threat was related to greater desire for tightness which, in turn, was linked to more negative attitudes towards immigrants. These findings were followed up with a longitudinal model (N = 2,349) which also showed that people's heightened concern with COVID-19 in an earlier stage of the pandemic was associated with an increase in their desire for tightness and negative attitudes towards immigrants later in time. Our findings offer insight into the trade-offs that tightening social norms under collective threat has for human groups.
  20. Murray CJ, Ortblad KF, Guinovart C, Lim SS, Wolock TM, Roberts DA, et al.
    Lancet, 2014 Sep 13;384(9947):1005-70.
    PMID: 25059949 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8
    BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.

    METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.

    FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.

    INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.

    FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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