Predicting successful live birth from single serum hCG measurement in assisted reproductive technology (ART) cycle

INTRODUCTION: Assisted reproductive technology may result in various outcomes, causing a significant stress both physically and emotionally to the patients. This study aims to determine the level of serum human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) following embryo transfer in predicting successful live births in in vitro fertilisation (IVF) cycles.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of 407 IVF pregnancies in Hospital Sultanah Bahiyah Kedah from 2014 to 2019. Serum hCG was withdrawn on either (i) day 16 post-oocyte retrieval for fresh IVF cycle or (ii) day 16 from the addition of progesterone in frozen embryo cycles. Outcomes of IVF pregnancies were analysed in relation to the level of serum hCG.

RESULTS: The overall median hCG level in singleton live birth was 304.7 IU/L, 547.10 IU/L for multiple live births, and early pregnancy loss level was 77 IU/L. When the ROC graphs were plotted, serum hCG level of 152.85 IU/L predicted singleton livebirth with a sensitivity of 81.3%. Serum hCG of 322.40 IU/L predicted multiple live births with sensitivity of 78.6% and a specificity of 64.3%. In the subgroup analysis comparing prediction hCG level in singleton live birth; the cut-off point in frozen cycle was found to be higher as compared to fresh cycle, 277.05 IU/L vs 117.5 IU/L. Blastocyst pregnancies recorded overall higher predictor hCG level as compared to cleavage state in all the outcomes measured; singleton live birth (372.30 IU/L), early pregnancy loss (107.60 IU/L), and multiple pregnancies (711.40 IU/L).

CONCLUSION: A single reading of serum hCG taken at day 16 post-oocyte retrieval or day 16 from the addition of progesterone in a frozen cycle will help to determine the outcomes of IVF pregnancies and direct the physicians during counselling sessions and plan for further follow-up of the patients.