METHOD: We estimated the two conditions for a Zika outbreak emergence in Southeast Asia: (i) the risk of Zika introduction from Latin America and the Caribbean and, (ii) the risk of autochthonous transmission under varying assumptions on population immunity. We also validated the model used to estimate the risk of introduction by comparing the estimated number of Zika seeds introduced into the United States with case counts reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
RESULTS: There was good agreement between our estimates and case counts reported by the CDC. We thus applied the model to Southeast Asia and estimated that, on average, 1-10 seeds were introduced into Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. We also found increasing population immunity levels from 0 to 90% reduced probability of autochthonous transmission by 40% and increasing individual variation in transmission further reduced the outbreak probability.
CONCLUSIONS: Population immunity, combined with heterogeneity in transmission, can explain why no large-scale outbreak was observed in Southeast Asia during the 2015-16 epidemic.
METHODS: In the present study, a single-tube reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) assay was developed for the detection of both the Asian and African-lineage ZIKV. The detection limit, strain coverage and cross-reactivity of the ZIKV RT-LAMP assay was evaluated. The sensitivity and specificity of the RT-LAMP were also evaluated using a total of 24 simulated clinical samples. The ZIKV quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) assay was used as the reference assay.
RESULTS: The detection limit of the RT-LAMP assay was 3.73 ZIKV RNA copies (probit analysis, P ≤ 0.05). The RT-LAMP assay detected the ZIKV genomes of both the Asian and African lineages without cross-reacting with other arthropod-borne viruses. The sensitivity and specificity of the RT-LAMP assay were 90% (95% CI = 59.6-98.2) and 100% (95% CI = 78.5-100.0), respectively. The RT-LAMP assay detected ZIKV genome in 9 of 24 (37.5%) of the simulated clinical samples compared to 10 of 24 (41.7%) by qRT-PCR assay with a high level of concordance (κ = 0.913, P