Previous models of disease spread involving delay have used basic SIR (susceptible--infectious--recovery) formulae and approaches. This paper demonstrates how time-varying SEIRS (S--exposed--I - R - S) models can be extended with delay to produce wave propagations that simulate periodic wave fronts of disease spread in the context of population movements. The model also takes into account the natural mortality associated with the disease spread. Understanding the delay of an infectious disease is critical when attempting to predict where and how fast the disease will propagate. We use cellular automata to model the delay and its effect on the spread of infectious diseases where population movement occurs. We illustrate an approach using wavelet transform analysis to understand the impact of the delay on the spread of infectious diseases. The results indicate that including delay provides novel ways to understand the effects of migration and population movement on disease spread.
Despite increasing control measures, numerous parasitic and infectious diseases are emerging, re-emerging or causing recurrent outbreaks particularly in Asia and the Pacific region, a hot spot of both infectious disease emergence and biodiversity at risk. We investigate how biodiversity affects the distribution of infectious diseases and their outbreaks in this region, taking into account socio-economics (population size, GDP, public health expenditure), geography (latitude and nation size), climate (precipitation, temperature) and biodiversity (bird and mammal species richness, forest cover, mammal and bird species at threat). We show, among countries, that the overall richness of infectious diseases is positively correlated with the richness of birds and mammals, but the number of zoonotic disease outbreaks is positively correlated with the number of threatened mammal and bird species and the number of vector-borne disease outbreaks is negatively correlated with forest cover. These results suggest that, among countries, biodiversity is a source of pathogens, but also that the loss of biodiversity or its regulation, as measured by forest cover or threatened species, seems to be associated with an increase in zoonotic and vector-borne disease outbreaks.
Time series modelling and forecasting plays an important role in various domains. The objective of this paper is to construct a simple average ensemble method to forecast the number of cases for infectious diseases like dengue and typhoid and compare it by applying models for forecasting. In this paper we have also evaluated the correlation between the number of typhoid and dengue cases with the ecological variables. The monthly data of dengue and typhoid cases from 2014 to 2017 were taken from integrated diseases surveillance programme, Government of India. This data was analysed by three models namely support vector regression, neural network and linear regression. The proposed simple average ensemble model was constructed by ensemble of three applied regression models i.e. SVR, NN and LR. We combine the regression models based upon the error metrics such as Mean Square Error, Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error. It was found that proposed ensemble method performed better in terms of forecast measures. The finding demonstrates that the proposed model outperforms as compared to already available applied models on the basis of forecast accuracy.
BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.
METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).
FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.
INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Malaysian collaborators: Southern University College, Skudai, Malaysia (Y J Kim PhD); School of Medical Sciences, University of Science Malaysia, Kubang Kerian, Malaysia (K I Musa MD); Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Medical Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (R Sahathevan PhD); Department of Community Medicine, International Medical University, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (C T Sreeramareddy MD); WorldFish, Penang, Malaysia (A L Thorne-Lyman ScD)
Globally, the burden of diabetes is increasing very rapidly as is the diabetic related complications. Infections in diabetes mellitus are relatively more common and serious. Diabetic patients run the risk of acute metabolic decompensation during infections, and conversely patients with metabolic decompensation are at higher risk of certain invasive infections. Infections in diabetic patients result in extended hospital stays and additional financial burden.1 Medicine in modern world has seen tremendous advancements like newer generation of anti-diabetic drugs, modern insulin therapy, better intensive care facilities and more potent antibiotics. Despite all these advancements, infection still remains one of the major cause for increasing morbidity and mortality in diabetic patients2 . This article focuses on the common diabetes related infections in the Head and Neck region of the body. Some of the life threatening infections like malignant otitis externa and rhino-cerebral mucormycosis affect this region of body.
Data on comprehensive population-based surveillance of antimicrobial resistance is lacking. In low- and middle-income countries, the challenges are high due to weak laboratory capacity, poor health systems governance, lack of health information systems, and limited resources. Developing countries struggle with political and social dilemma, and bear a high health and economic burden of communicable diseases. Available data are fragmented and lack representativeness which limits their use to advice health policy makers and orientate the efficient allocation of funding and financial resources on programs to mitigate resistance. Low-quality data means soaring rates of antimicrobial resistance and the inability to track and map the spread of resistance, detect early outbreaks, and set national health policy to tackle resistance. Here, we review the barriers and limitations of conducting effective antimicrobial resistance surveillance, and we highlight multiple incremental approaches that may offer opportunities to strengthen population-based surveillance if tailored to the context of each country.
Adult immunization is a neglected and underpublicised issue in Southeast Asia. Vaccine-preventable diseases cause unnecessary morbidity and mortality among adults in the region, while inadequate immunization results in unnecessary costs, including those associated with hospitalization, treatment, and loss of income. Childhood vaccination coverage is high for the EPI diseases of diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis; however, unvaccinated, undervaccinated, and aging adults with waning immunity remain at risk from infection and may benefit from vaccination. Catch-up immunization is advisable for adults seronegative for hepatitis B virus, while immunization against the hepatitis A and varicella viruses may benefit those who remain susceptible. Among older adults, immunization against influenza and pneumococcal infections is likely to be beneficial in reducing morbidity and mortality. Certain vaccinations are also recommended for specific groups, such as rubella for women of child-bearing age, typhoid for those travelling to high-endemicity areas, and several vaccines for high-risk occupational groups such as health care workers. This paper presents an overview of a number of vaccine-preventable diseases which occur in adults, and highlights the importance of immunization to protect those at risk of infection.
The potential applications of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones, have generated intense interest across many fields. UAVs offer the potential to collect detailed spatial information in real time at relatively low cost and are being used increasingly in conservation and ecological research. Within infectious disease epidemiology and public health research, UAVs can provide spatially and temporally accurate data critical to understanding the linkages between disease transmission and environmental factors. Using UAVs avoids many of the limitations associated with satellite data (e.g., long repeat times, cloud contamination, low spatial resolution). However, the practicalities of using UAVs for field research limit their use to specific applications and settings. UAVs fill a niche but do not replace existing remote-sensing methods.
In 2012, the number of international tourist arrivals worldwide was projected to reach a new high of 1 billion arrivals, a 48% increase from 674 million arrivals in 2000. International travel also is increasing among U.S. residents. In 2009, U.S. residents made approximately 61 million trips outside the country, a 5% increase from 1999. Travel-related morbidity can occur during or after travel. Worldwide, 8% of travelers from industrialized to developing countries report becoming ill enough to seek health care during or after travel. Travelers have contributed to the global spread of infectious diseases, including novel and emerging pathogens. Therefore, surveillance of travel-related morbidity is an essential component of global public health surveillance and will be of greater importance as international travel increases worldwide.
Natural disasters may lead to infectious disease outbreaks when they result in substantial population displacement and exacerbate synergic risk factors (change in the environment, in human conditions and in the vulnerability to existing pathogens) for disease transmission. We reviewed risk factors and potential infectious diseases resulting from prolonged secondary effects of major natural disasters that occurred from 2000 to 2011. Natural disasters including floods, tsunamis, earthquakes, tropical cyclones (e.g., hurricanes and typhoons) and tornadoes have been secondarily described with the following infectious diseases including diarrheal diseases, acute respiratory infections, malaria, leptospirosis, measles, dengue fever, viral hepatitis, typhoid fever, meningitis, as well as tetanus and cutaneous mucormycosis. Risk assessment is essential in post-disaster situations and the rapid implementation of control measures through re-establishment and improvement of primary healthcare delivery should be given high priority, especially in the absence of pre-disaster surveillance data.
Malaysia's global, regional and bilateral international health relations are surveyed against the historical backdrop of the country's foreign policy. Malaysia has always participated in multilateral agencies, most notably the World Health Organization, as such agencies are part of the longstanding fabric of "good international citizenship". The threats of infectious diseases to human health and economic activity have caused an intensification and an organizational formalization of Malaysian health diplomacy, both regionally and bilaterally. Such diplomacy has also established a basis for developing a wider set of cooperative relationships that go beyond responding to the threat of pandemics. As Malaysia approaches "developed" status, its health sector is becoming increasingly integrated into the global economy through joint research and development ventures and transnational investment. At the same time, it will have the technological, financial and human resources to play an expanded altruistic role in global and regional health.
Men's health concerns have evolved from the traditional andrology and male sexual health to a more holistic approach that encompasses male psychological, social and physical health. The poor state of health in men compared to their female counterparts is well documented. A review of the epidemiological data from Malaysia noted a similar trend in which men die at higher rates in under 1 and above 15 years old groups and most disease categories compared to women. In Malaysia, the main causes of death in men are non-communicable diseases and injuries. Risk factors, such as risk-taking behaviour, smoking and hypertension, are prevalent and amenable to early interventions. Erectile dysfunction, premature ejaculation and prostate disorders are also prevalent. However, many of these morbidities go unreported and are not diagnosed early; therefore, opportunities for early intervention are missed. This reflects poor health knowledge and inadequate health-care utilisation among Malaysian men. Their health-seeking behaviour has been shown to be strongly influenced by family members and friends. However, more research is needed to identify men's unmet health-care needs and to develop optimal strategies for addressing them. Because the Malaysian population is aging and there is an increase in sedentary lifestyles, optimizing men's health will remain a challenge unless effective measures are implemented. The existing male-unfriendly health-care system and the negative influence of masculinity on men's health behaviour must be addressed. A national men's health policy based on a male-friendly approach to health-care delivery is urgently needed to provide a framework for addressing these challenges.
The health of a population and the development of health services in a country at a particular time in history are directly linked to the socioeconomic system. This paper discusses health and health services in Malay Peninsula during the time that it was a British colony. Economic production under British colonialism, which is basically a capitalist system, is organized primarily for the purpose of realizing profits. The health of the population is in direct conflict with and generally subordinated to this main objective. The pattern of health that emerges reflects this general framework. Moreover, health services under the colonialist system are developed primarily to serve the economic interests of the colonialists. Hence, the structure of health services is biased toward curative medicine and centered mainly in the urban areas.
The microbes that cause infectious diseases are complex, dynamic, and constantly evolving. They reproduce rapidly, mutate frequently, breach species barriers, adapt with relative ease to new hosts and new environments, and develop resistance to the drugs used to treat them. In their article "Meeting the challenge of epidemic infectious diseases outbreaks: an agenda for research", Kai-Lit Phua and Lai Kah Lee clearly demonstrate how social, behavioural and environmental factors, linked to a host of human activities, have accelerated and amplified these natural phenomena. By reviewing published and non-published information about outbreaks of Nipah virus in Malaysia, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and avian influenza in Asia, and the HIV pandemic, they provide a series of examples that demonstrate the various social, behavioural and environmental factors of these recent infectious disease outbreaks. They then analyse some of these same determinants in important historical epidemics and pandemics such as plague in medieval Europe, and conclude that it is important to better understand the social conditions that facilitate the appearance of diseases outbreaks in order to determine why and how societies react to outbreaks and their impact on different population groups.
Objectives: Healthcare facilities internationally have grown outpatient parenteral antibiotic administration services for the last few decades. The literature contains publications from dozens of countries describing systematized processes with specialist oversight and their levels of service provision and outcomes. Such descriptions are absent in the majority of Asian countries. We sought to elucidate the extent and nature of outpatient parenteral antibiotic therapy (OPAT) in Asia and to consider the ramifications and opportunities for improvement.
Methods: Utilizing colleagues and their personal networks, we surveyed healthcare facilities across 17 countries in Asia to ascertain the current means (if any) of providing OPAT. In that survey we also sought to explore the capacity and interest of these facilities in developing systematized OPAT services.
Results: Responses were received from 171 different healthcare facilities from 17 countries. Most (97/171, 57%) stated that they administer outpatient parenteral antibiotics, but only 5 of 162 facilities (3%) outside of Singapore described comprehensive services with specialist oversight.
Conclusions: There is very likely a large unrecognized problem of unchecked outpatient parenteral antibiotic administration in Asia. Developing comprehensive and systematized OPAT in Asia is needed as a priority in an environment in which the infectious diseases community is demanding broad stewardship approaches. There are nonetheless challenges in establishing and sustaining OPAT programmes. Local champions and leverage off identified local incentives and needs are key to regional advancement.
Study site: unclear (convenient sample from contacts of investigators)
Note: Questionnaire available here:
https://academic.oup.com/jac/article/72/4/1221/2888431#supplementary-data