OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to identify predictors of A4 amplitude and high AVS.

METHODS: We analyzed 64 patients enrolled in MARVEL 2 who had visible P waves on electrocardiogram for assessing A4 amplitude and 40 patients with third-degree AV block for assessing AVS at rest. High AVS was defined as >90% correct atrial-triggered ventricular pacing. The association between clinical factors and echocardiographic parameters with A4 amplitude was investigated using a multivariable model with lasso variable selection. Variables associated with A4 amplitude together with premature ventricular contraction burden, sinus rate, and sinus rate variability (standard deviation of successive differences of P-P intervals [SDSD]) were assessed for association with AVS.

RESULTS: In univariate analysis, low A4 amplitude was inversely related to atrial function assessed by E/A ratio and e'/a' ratio, and was directly related to atrial contraction excursion (ACE) and atrial strain (Ɛa) on echocardiography (all P ≤.05). The multivariable lasso regression model found coronary artery bypass graft history, E/A ratio, ACE, and Ɛa were associated with low A4 amplitude. E/A ratio and SDSD were multivariable predictors of high AVS, with >90% probability if E/A <0.94 and SDSD <5 bpm.