Early detection of a dengue outbreak is an important first step towards implementing effective dengue interventions resulting in reduced mortality and morbidity. A dengue mathematical model would be useful for the prediction of an outbreak and evaluation of control measures. However, such a model must be carefully parameterized and validated with epidemiological, ecological and entomological data. A field study was conducted to collect and analyse various parameters to model dengue transmission and outbreak. Dengue prone areas in Kuala Lumpur, Pahang, Kedah and Johor were chosen for this study. Ovitraps were placed outdoor and used to determine the effects of meteorological parameters on vector breeding. Vector population in each area was monitored weekly for 87 weeks. Weather stations, consisting of a temperature and relative humidity data logger and an automated rain gauge, were installed at key locations in each study site. Correlation and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) model were used to study the relationship among the variables. Previous week rainfall plays a significant role in increasing the mosquito population, followed by maximum humidity and temperature. The secondary data of rainfall, temperature and humidity provided by the meteorological department showed an insignificant relationship with the mosquito population compared to the primary data recorded by the researchers. A well fit model was obtained for each locality to be used as a predictive model to foretell possible outbreak.
Since 2000, human malaria cases in Malaysia were rapidly reduced with the use of insecticides in Indoor Residual Spray (IRS) and Long-Lasting Insecticide Net (LLIN). Unfortunately, monkey malaria in humans has shown an increase especially in Sabah and Sarawak. The insecticide currently used in IRS is deltamethrin K-Othrine® WG 250 wettable granule, targeting mosquitoes that rest and feed indoor. In Sabah, the primary vector for knowlesi malaria is An. balabacensis a species known to bite outdoor. This study evaluates an alternative method, the Outdoor Residual Spray (ORS) using a novel formulation of deltamethrin K-Othrine® (PolyZone) to examine it suitability to control knowlesi malaria vector in Sabah, compared to the current method. The study was performed at seven villages in Sabah having similar type of houses (wood, bamboo and concrete). Houses were sprayed with deltamethrin K-Othrine® (PolyZone) at two different dosages, 25 mg/m2 and 30 mg/m2 and deltamethrin K-Othrine® WG 250 wettable granule at 25 mg/m2, sprayed indoor and outdoor. Residual activity on different walls was assessed using standard cone bioassay techniques. For larval surveillances, potential breeding sites were surveyed. Larvae were collected and identified, pre and post spraying. Adult survey was done using Human Landing Catch (HLC) performed outdoor and indoor. Detection of malaria parasite in adults was conducted via microscopy and molecular methods. Deltamethrin K-Othrine® (PolyZone) showed higher efficacy when sprayed outdoor. The efficacy was found varied when sprayed on different types of wall surfaces. Deltamethrin K-Othrine® (PolyZone) at 25 mg/m2 was the most effective with regards to ability to high mortality and effective knock down (KD). The vector population was reduced significantly post-spraying and reduction in breeding sites as well. The number of simian malaria infected vector, human and simian malaria transmission were also greatly reduced.