In this study a GIS model was developed and spatial analytical techniques performed to identify and select a suitable location for a waste transfer station in the sprawling suburban town of Petaling Jaya. The lack of a transfer station in urban centres of Malaysia has caused many problems and affects the efficiency of waste collection and disposal. With diminishing space for landfills and the increasing cost of solid waste management, the need for urban solid-waste recycling has become very important. However, finding a place for waste to be efficiently sorted before unwanted waste can be carried to disposal landfills has social and physical constraints. This study applies GIS techniques and analysis for site selection and identifies an acceptable area. In the model, environmental, physical and social constraints were taken into account, resulting in the selection of a potential area that is acceptable to the residents of the area because it is out of range of causing public nuisance and within minimum travelling distance for collection vehicles. The results show that the potential location for the transfer station should be in proximity of the industrial area of Petaling Jaya, allowing for the possible sale of recyclable materials to local industries. The location is also sited near a major highway to allow quick transportation of the rest of the unwanted waste to the landfill.
In this paper, optimum routing was developed based on the travel salesman method and integrated in ArcInfo GIS using linear programming. The results of the optimized travel distances and times for residential waste collection and routing to disposal site were used to calculate the number and type of required track collection, labour requirement, costing of waste collection and to determine the overall solid waste management efficiency through waste management operation research methods. The objective of the study was to optimize residential collection and hauling to disposal site through operation cost minimization for Petaling Jaya Municipality in the state of Selangor, Malaysia. The study determined that with optimized routes and recycling possibilities, the total cost of waste collections could be reduced from RM90,372 to RM20,967, with a reduction of 76.8%. It was also revealed that optimum routes might not necessarily be the shortest distance from point A to point B as travel time maybe high on short distances due to traffic congestion and the presence of many traffic lights. Techniques and methods developed using general GIS have proven effective in route optimization and allowed management of data to suit local conditions and limitations of waste management for the studied area. Thus, scenarios of travel distances, time and waste quantity value generated from the GIS enabled appropriate determination of the number of waste trucks and labour requirements for the operation and the overall calculation of costs of waste management based on the operation research methods used in the study.
This study proposes a neural network (NN) model to predict and simulate the propagation of vehicular traffic noise in a dense residential area at the New Klang Valley Expressway (NKVE) in Shah Alam, Malaysia. The proposed model comprises of two main simulation steps: that is, the prediction of vehicular traffic noise using NN and the simulation of the propagation of traffic noise emission using a mathematical model. First, the NN model was developed with the following selected noise predictors: the number of motorbikes, the sum of vehicles, car ratio, heavy vehicle ratio (e.g. truck, lorry and bus), highway density and a light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-derived digital surface model (DSM). Subsequently, NN and its hyperparameters were optimised by a systematic optimisation procedure based on a grid search approach. The noise propagation model was then developed in a geographic information system (GIS) using five variables, namely road geometry, barriers, distance, interaction of air particles and weather parameters. The noise measurement was conducted continuously at 15-min intervals and the data were analysed by taking the minimum, maximum and average values recorded during the day. The measurement was performed four times a day (i.e. morning, afternoon, evening, and midnight) over two days of the week (i.e. Sunday and Monday). An optimal radial basis function NN was used with 17 hidden layers. The learning rate and momentum values were 0.05 and 0.9, respectively. Finally, the accuracy of the proposed method achieved 78.4% with less than 4.02 dB (A) error in noise prediction. Overall, the proposed models were found to be promising tools for traffic noise assessment in dense urban areas.
Accurate prediction of any type of natural hazard is a challenging task. Of all the various hazards, drought prediction is challenging as it lacks a universal definition and is getting adverse with climate change impacting drought events both spatially and temporally. The problem becomes more complex as drought occurrence is dependent on a multitude of factors ranging from hydro-meteorological to climatic variables. A paradigm shift happened in this field when it was found that the inclusion of climatic variables in the data-driven prediction model improves the accuracy. However, this understanding has been primarily using statistical metrics used to measure the model accuracy. The present work tries to explore this finding using an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) model. The explainable deep learning model development and comparative analysis were performed using known understandings drawn from physical-based models. The work also tries to explore how the model achieves specific results at different spatio-temporal intervals, enabling us to understand the local interactions among the predictors for different drought conditions and drought periods. The drought index used in the study is Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) at 12 month scales applied for five different regions in New South Wales, Australia, with the explainable algorithm being SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). The conclusions drawn from SHAP plots depict the importance of climatic variables at a monthly scale and varying ranges of annual scale. We observe that the results obtained from SHAP align with the physical model interpretations, thus suggesting the need to add climatic variables as predictors in the prediction model.
Soil erosion hazard is one of the prominent climate hazards that negatively impact countries' economies and livelihood. According to the global climate index, Sri Lanka is ranked among the first ten countries most threatened by climate change during the last three years (2018-2020). However, limited studies were conducted to simulate the impact of the soil erosion vulnerability based on climate scenarios. This study aims to assess and predict soil erosion susceptibility using climate change projected scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) in the Central Highlands of Sri Lanka. The potential of soil erosion susceptibility was predicted to 2040, depending on climate change scenarios, RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. Five models: revised universal soil loss (RUSLE), frequency ratio (FR), artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machine (SVM) and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) were selected as widely applied for hazards assessments. Eight geo-environmental factors were selected as inputs to model the soil erosion susceptibility. Results of the five models demonstrate that soil erosion vulnerability (soil erosion rates) will increase 4%-22% compared to the current soil erosion rate (2020). The predictions indicate average soil erosion will increase to 10.50 t/ha/yr and 12.4 t/ha/yr under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 climate scenario in 2040, respectively. The ANFIS and SVM model predictions showed the highest accuracy (89%) on soil erosion susceptibility for this study area. The soil erosion susceptibility maps provide a good understanding of future soil erosion vulnerability (spatial distribution) and can be utilized to develop climate resilience.
One of the worst environmental catastrophes that endanger the Australian community is wildfire. To lessen potential fire threats, it is helpful to recognize fire occurrence patterns and identify fire susceptibility in wildfire-prone regions. The use of machine learning (ML) algorithms is acknowledged as one of the most well-known methods for addressing non-linear issues like wildfire hazards. It has always been difficult to analyze these multivariate environmental disasters because modeling can be influenced by a variety of sources of uncertainty, including the quantity and quality of training procedures and input variables. Moreover, although ML techniques show promise in this field, they are unstable for a number of reasons, including the usage of irrelevant descriptor characteristics when developing the models. Explainable AI (XAI) can assist us in acquiring insights into these constraints and, consequently, modifying the modeling approach and training data necessary. In this research, we describe how a Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) model can be utilized to interpret the results of a deep learning (DL) model that is developed for wildfire susceptibility prediction. Different contributing factors such as topographical, landcover/vegetation, and meteorological factors are fed into the model and various SHAP plots are used to identify which parameters are impacting the prediction model, their relative importance, and the reasoning behind specific decisions. The findings drawn from SHAP plots show the significant contributions made by factors such as humidity, wind speed, rainfall, elevation, slope, and normalized difference moisture index (NDMI) to the suggested model's output for wildfire susceptibility mapping. We infer that developing an explainable model would aid in comprehending the model's decision to map wildfire susceptibility, pinpoint high-contributing components in the prediction model, and consequently control fire hazards effectively.
Building-damage mapping using remote sensing images plays a critical role in providing quick and accurate information for the first responders after major earthquakes. In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in generating post-earthquake building-damage maps automatically using different artificial intelligence (AI)-based frameworks. These frameworks in this domain are promising, yet not reliable for several reasons, including but not limited to the site-specific design of the methods, the lack of transparency in the AI-model, the lack of quality in the labelled image, and the use of irrelevant descriptor features in building the AI-model. Using explainable AI (XAI) can lead us to gain insight into identifying these limitations and therefore, to modify the training dataset and the model accordingly. This paper proposes the use of SHAP (Shapley additive explanation) to interpret the outputs of a multilayer perceptron (MLP)-a machine learning model-and analyse the impact of each feature descriptor included in the model for building-damage assessment to examine the reliability of the model. In this study, a post-event satellite image from the 2018 Palu earthquake was used. The results show that MLP can classify the collapsed and non-collapsed buildings with an overall accuracy of 84% after removing the redundant features. Further, spectral features are found to be more important than texture features in distinguishing the collapsed and non-collapsed buildings. Finally, we argue that constructing an explainable model would help to understand the model's decision to classify the buildings as collapsed and non-collapsed and open avenues to build a transferable AI model.
Urban vegetation mapping is critical in many applications, i.e., preserving biodiversity, maintaining ecological balance, and minimizing the urban heat island effect. It is still challenging to extract accurate vegetation covers from aerial imagery using traditional classification approaches, because urban vegetation categories have complex spatial structures and similar spectral properties. Deep neural networks (DNNs) have shown a significant improvement in remote sensing image classification outcomes during the last few years. These methods are promising in this domain, yet unreliable for various reasons, such as the use of irrelevant descriptor features in the building of the models and lack of quality in the labeled image. Explainable AI (XAI) can help us gain insight into these limits and, as a result, adjust the training dataset and model as needed. Thus, in this work, we explain how an explanation model called Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) can be utilized for interpreting the output of the DNN model that is designed for classifying vegetation covers. We want to not only produce high-quality vegetation maps, but also rank the input parameters and select appropriate features for classification. Therefore, we test our method on vegetation mapping from aerial imagery based on spectral and textural features. Texture features can help overcome the limitations of poor spectral resolution in aerial imagery for vegetation mapping. The model was capable of obtaining an overall accuracy (OA) of 94.44% for vegetation cover mapping. The conclusions derived from SHAP plots demonstrate the high contribution of features, such as Hue, Brightness, GLCM_Dissimilarity, GLCM_Homogeneity, and GLCM_Mean to the output of the proposed model for vegetation mapping. Therefore, the study indicates that existing vegetation mapping strategies based only on spectral characteristics are insufficient to appropriately classify vegetation covers.
Droughts are slow-moving natural hazards that gradually spread over large areas and capable of extending to continental scales, leading to severe socio-economic damage. A key challenge is developing accurate drought forecast model and understanding a models' capability to examine different drought characteristics. Traditionally, forecasting techniques have used various time-series approaches and machine learning models. However, the use of deep learning methods have not been tested extensively despite its potential to improve our understanding of drought characteristics. The present study uses a deep learning approach, specifically the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to predict a commonly used drought measure, the Standard Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) at two different time scales (SPEI 1, SPEI 3). The model was compared with other common machine learning method, Random Forests, Artificial Neural Networks and applied over the New South Wales (NSW) region of Australia, using hydro-meteorological variables as predictors. The drought index and predictor data were collected from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) dataset spanning from 1901 to 2018. We analysed the LSTM forecasted results in terms of several drought characteristics (drought intensity, drought category, or spatial variation) to better understand how drought forecasting was improved. Evaluation of the drought intensity forecasting capabilities of the model were based on three different statistical metrics, Coefficient of Determination (R2), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The model achieved R2 value of more than 0.99 for both SPEI 1 and SPEI 3 cases. The variation in drought category forecasted results were studied using a multi-class Receiver Operating Characteristic based Area under Curves (ROC-AUC) approach. The analysis revealed an AUC value of 0.83 and 0.82 for SPEI 1 and SPEI 3 respectively. The spatial variation between observed and forecasted values were analysed for the summer months of 2016-2018. The findings from the study show an improvement relative to machine learning models for a lead time of 1 month in terms of different drought characteristics. The results from this work can be used for drought mitigation purposes and different models need to be tested to further enhance our capabilities.
In this paper, an attempt has been made to assess, prognosis and observe dynamism of soil erosion by universal soil loss equation (USLE) method at Penang Island, Malaysia. Multi-source (map-, space- and ground-based) datasets were used to obtain both static and dynamic factors of USLE, and an integrated analysis was carried out in raster format of GIS. A landslide location map was generated on the basis of image elements interpretation from aerial photos, satellite data and field observations and was used to validate soil erosion intensity in the study area. Further, a statistical-based frequency ratio analysis was carried out in the study area for correlation purposes. The results of the statistical correlation showed a satisfactory agreement between the prepared USLE-based soil erosion map and landslide events/locations, and are directly proportional to each other. Prognosis analysis on soil erosion helps the user agencies/decision makers to design proper conservation planning program to reduce soil erosion. Temporal statistics on soil erosion in these dynamic and rapid developments in Penang Island indicate the co-existence and balance of ecosystem.
Drought forecasting with a long lead time is essential for early warning systems and risk management strategies. The use of machine learning algorithms has been proven to be beneficial in forecasting droughts. However, forecasting at long lead times remains a challenge due to the effects of climate change and the complexities involved in drought assessment. The rise of deep learning techniques can solve this issue, and the present work aims to use a stacked long short-term memory (LSTM) architecture to forecast a commonly used drought measure, namely, the Standard Precipitation Evaporation Index. The model was then applied to the New South Wales region of Australia, with hydrometeorological and climatic variables as predictors. The multivariate interpolated grid of the Climatic Research Unit was used to compute the index at monthly scales, with meteorological variables as predictors. The architecture was trained using data from the period of 1901-2000 and tested on data from the period of 2001-2018. The results were then forecasted at lead times ranging from 1 month to 12 months. The forecasted results were analysed in terms of drought characteristics, such as drought intensity, drought onset, spatial extent and number of drought months, to elucidate how these characteristics improve the understanding of drought forecasting. The drought intensity forecasting capability of the model used two statistical metrics, namely, the coefficient of determination (R2) and root-mean-square error. The variation in the number of drought months was examined using the threat score technique. The results of this study showed that the stacked LSTM model can forecast effectively at short-term and long-term lead times. Such findings will be essential for government agencies and can be further tested to understand the forecasting capability of the presented architecture at shorter temporal scales, which can range from days to weeks.
Healthy farming systems play a vital role in improving agricultural productivity and sustainable food production. The present study aimed to propose an efficient framework to evaluate ecologically viable and economically sound farming systems using a matrix-based analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and weighted linear combination method with geo-informatics tools. The proposed framework has been developed and tested in the Central Highlands of Sri Lanka. Results reveal that more than 50% of farming systems demonstrated moderate status in terms of ecological and economic aspects. However, two vulnerable farming systems on the western slopes of the Central Highlands, named WL1a and WM1a, were identified as very poor status. These farming systems should be a top priority for restoration planning and soil conservation to prevent further deterioration. Findings indicate that a combination of ecologically viable (nine indicators) and economical sound (four indicators) criteria are a practical method to scrutinize farming systems and decision making on soil conservation and sustainable land management. In addition, this research introduces a novel approach to delineate the farming systems based on agro-ecological regions and cropping areas using geo-informatics technology. This framework and methodology can be employed to evaluate the farming systems of other parts of the country and elsewhere to identify ecologically viable and economically sound farming systems concerning soil erosion hazards. The proposed approach addresses a new dimension of the decision-making process by evaluating the farming systems relating to soil erosion hazards and suggests introducing policies on priority-based planning for conservation with low-cost strategies for sustainable land management.
The objective of this study is to delineate groundwater flowing well zone potential in An-Najif Province of Iraq in a data-driven evidential belief function model developed in a geographical information system (GIS) environment. An inventory map of 68 groundwater flowing wells was prepared through field survey. Seventy percent or 43 wells were used for training the evidential belief functions model and the reset 30 % or 19 wells were used for validation of the model. Seven groundwater conditioning factors mostly derived from RS were used, namely elevation, slope angle, curvature, topographic wetness index, stream power index, lithological units, and distance to the Euphrates River in this study. The relationship between training flowing well locations and the conditioning factors were investigated using evidential belief functions technique in a GIS environment. The integrated belief values were classified into five categories using natural break classification scheme to predict spatial zoning of groundwater flowing well, namely very low (0.17-0.34), low (0.34-0.46), moderate (0.46-0.58), high (0.58-0.80), and very high (0.80-0.99). The results show that very low and low zones cover 72 % (19,282 km(2)) of the study area mostly clustered in the central part, the moderate zone concentrated in the west part covers 13 % (3481 km(2)), and the high and very high zones extended over the northern part cover 15 % (3977 km(2)) of the study area. The vast spatial extension of very low and low zones indicates that groundwater flowing wells potential in the study area is low. The performance of the evidential belief functions spatial model was validated using the receiver operating characteristic curve. A success rate of 0.95 and a prediction rate of 0.94 were estimated from the area under relative operating characteristics curves, which indicate that the developed model has excellent capability to predict groundwater flowing well zones. The produced map of groundwater flowing well zones could be used to identify new wells and manage groundwater storage in a sustainable manner.
In Australia, droughts are recurring events that tremendously affect environmental, agricultural and socio-economic activities. Southern Queensland is one of the most drought-prone regions in Australia. Consequently, a comprehensive drought vulnerability mapping is essential to generate a drought vulnerability map that can help develop and implement drought mitigation strategies. The study aimed to prepare a comprehensive drought vulnerability map that combines drought categories using geospatial techniques and to assess the spatial extent of the vulnerability of droughts in southern Queensland. A total of 14 drought-influencing criteria were selected for three drought categories, specifically, meteorological, hydrological and agricultural. The specific criteria spatial layers were prepared and weighted using the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. Individual categories of drought vulnerability maps were prepared from their specific indices. Finally, the overall drought vulnerability map was generated by combining the indices using spatial analysis. Results revealed that approximately 79.60% of the southern Queensland region is moderately to extremely vulnerable to drought. The findings of this study were validated successfully through the receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) and the area under the curve (AUC) approach using previous historical drought records. Results can be helpful for decision makers to develop and apply proactive drought mitigation strategies.
The COVID-19 pandemic has spread obstreperously in India. The increase in daily confirmed cases accelerated significantly from ~ 5 additional new cases (ANC)/day during early March up to ~ 249 ANC/day during early June. An abrupt change in this temporal pattern was noticed during mid-April, from which can be inferred a much reduced impact of the nationwide lockdown in India. Daily maximum (T Max), minimum (T Min), mean (T Mean) and dew point temperature (T Dew), wind speed (WS), relative humidity, and diurnal range in temperature and relative humidity during March 01 to June 04, 2020 over 9 major affected cities are analyzed to look into the impact of daily weather on COVID-19 infections on that day and 7, 10, 12, 14, 16 days before those cases were detected (i.e., on the likely transmission days). Spearman's correlation exhibits significantly lower association with WS, T Max, T Min, T Mean, T Dew, but is comparatively better with a lag of 14 days. Support Vector regression successfully estimated the count of confirmed cases (R 2 > 0.8) at a lag of 12-16 days, thus reflecting a probable incubation period of 14 ± 02 days in India. Approximately 75% of total cases were registered when T Max, T Mean, T Min, T Dew, and WS at 12-16 days previously were varying within the range of 33.6-41.3 °C, 29.8-36.5 °C, 24.8-30.4 °C, 18.7-23.6 °C, and 4.2-5.75 m/s, respectively. Thus, we conclude that coronavirus transmission is not well correlated (linearly) with any individual weather parameter; rather, transmission is susceptible to a certain weather pattern. Hence multivariate non-linear approach must be employed instead.
The spatial variation of soil erosion is essential for farming system management and resilience development, specifically in the high climate hazard vulnerable tropical countries like Sri Lanka. This study aimed to investigate climate and human-induced soil erosion through spatial modeling. Remote sensing was used for spatial modeling to detect soil erosion, crop diversity, and rainfall variation. The study employed a time-series analysis of several variables such as rainfall, land-use land-cover (LULC) and crop diversity to detect the spatial variability of soil erosion in farming systems. Rain-use efficiency (RUE) and residual trend analysis (RESTREND) combined with a regression approach were applied to partition the soil erosion due to human and climate-induced land degradation. Results showed that soil erosion has increased from 9.08 Mg/ha/yr to 11.08 Mg/ha/yr from 2000 to 2019 in the Central Highlands of Sri Lanka. The average annual rainfall has increased in the western part of the Central Highlands, and soil erosion hazards such as landslides incidence also increased during this period. However, crop diversity has been decreasing in farming systems, namely wet zone low country (WL1a) and wet zone mid-country (WM1a), in the western part of the Central Highlands. The RUE and RESTREND analyses reveal climate-induced soil erosion is responsible for land degradation in these farming systems and is a threat to sustainable food production in the farming systems of the Central Highlands.
The intelligent transportation system, especially autonomous vehicles, has seen a lot of interest among researchers owing to the tremendous work in modern artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, especially deep neural learning. As a result of increased road accidents over the last few decades, significant industries are moving to design and develop autonomous vehicles. Understanding the surrounding environment is essential for understanding the behavior of nearby vehicles to enable the safe navigation of autonomous vehicles in crowded traffic environments. Several datasets are available for autonomous vehicles focusing only on structured driving environments. To develop an intelligent vehicle that drives in real-world traffic environments, which are unstructured by nature, there should be an availability of a dataset for an autonomous vehicle that focuses on unstructured traffic environments. Indian Driving Lite dataset (IDD-Lite), focused on an unstructured driving environment, was released as an online competition in NCPPRIPG 2019. This study proposed an explainable inception-based U-Net model with Grad-CAM visualization for semantic segmentation that combines an inception-based module as an encoder for automatic extraction of features and passes to a decoder for the reconstruction of the segmentation feature map. The black-box nature of deep neural networks failed to build trust within consumers. Grad-CAM is used to interpret the deep-learning-based inception U-Net model to increase consumer trust. The proposed inception U-net with Grad-CAM model achieves 0.622 intersection over union (IoU) on the Indian Driving Dataset (IDD-Lite), outperforming the state-of-the-art (SOTA) deep neural-network-based segmentation models.
Acid mine drainage (AMD) is recognized as a major environmental challenge in the Western United States, particularly in Colorado, leading to extreme subsurface contamination issue. Given Colorado's arid climate and dependence on groundwater, an accurate assessment of AMD-induced contamination is deemed crucial. While in past, machine learning (ML)-based inversion algorithms were used to reconstruct ground electrical properties (GEP) such as relative dielectric permittivity (RDP) from ground penetrating radar (GPR) data for contamination assessment, their inherent non-linear nature can introduce significant uncertainty and non-uniqueness into the reconstructed models. This is a challenge that traditional ML methods are not explicitly designed to address. In this study, a probabilistic hybrid technique has been introduced that combines the DeepLabv3+ architecture-based deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) with an ensemble prediction-based Monte Carlo (MC) dropout method. Different MC dropout rates (1%, 5%, and 10%) were initially evaluated using 1D and 2D synthetic GPR data for accurate and reliable RDP model prediction. The optimal rate was chosen based on minimal prediction uncertainty and the closest alignment of the mean or median model with the true RDP model. Notably, with the optimal MC dropout rate, prediction accuracy of over 95% for the 1D and 2D cases was achieved. Motivated by these results, the hybrid technique was applied to field GPR data collected over an AMD-impacted wetland near Silverton, Colorado. The field results underscored the hybrid technique's ability to predict an accurate subsurface RDP distribution for estimating the spatial extent of AMD-induced contamination. Notably, this technique not only provides a precise assessment of subsurface contamination but also ensures consistent interpretations of subsurface condition by different environmentalists examining the same GPR data. In conclusion, the hybrid technique presents a promising avenue for future environmental studies in regions affected by AMD or other contaminants that alter the natural distribution of GEP.
The process of land use change and urban sprawl has been considered as a prominent characteristic of urban development. This study aims to investigate urban growth process in Bandar Abbas city, Iran, focusing on urban sprawl and land use change during 1956-2012. To calculate urban sprawl and land use changes, aerial photos and satellite images are utilized in different time spans. The results demonstrate that urban region area has changed from 403.77 to 4959.59 hectares between 1956 and 2012. Moreover, the population has increased more than 30 times in last six decades. The major part of population growth is related to migration from other parts the country to Bandar Abbas city. Considering the speed of urban sprawl growth rate, the scale and the role of the city have changed from medium and regional to large scale and transregional. Due to natural and structural limitations, more than 80% of barren lands, stone cliffs, beach zone, and agricultural lands are occupied by built-up areas. Our results revealed that the irregular expansion of Bandar Abbas city must be controlled so that sustainable development could be achieved.