The increasing trend in the number new cases of influenza every year as reported by WHO is concerning, especially in Malaysia. To date, there is no local research under healthcare sector that implements the time series forecasting methods to predict future disease outbreak in Malaysia, specifically influenza. Addressing the problem could increase awareness of the disease and could help healthcare workers to be more prepared in preventing the widespread of the disease. This paper intends to perform a hybrid ARIMA-SVR approach in forecasting monthly influenza cases in Malaysia. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model (using Box-Jenkins method) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) model were used to capture the linear and nonlinear components in the monthly influenza cases, respectively. It was forecasted that the performance of the hybrid model would improve. The data from World Health Organization (WHO) websites consisting of weekly Influenza Serology A cases in Malaysia from the year 2006 until 2019 have been used for this study. The data were recategorized into monthly data. The findings of the study showed that the monthly influenza cases could be efficiently forecasted using three comparator models as all models outperformed the benchmark model (Naïve model). However, SVR with linear kernel produced the lowest values of RMSE and MAE for the test dataset suggesting the best performance out of the other comparators. This suggested that SVR has the potential to produce more consistent results in forecasting future values when compared with ARIMA and the ARIMA-SVR hybrid model.
A significant portion of the world's population relies on rice as a primary source of nutrition. In Malaysia, rice production began in the early 1960s, which led to the cultivation of the country's most significant food crop up till the present day. Research on various aspects of the price and production of rice has been done by various methods in the past. In this study, we have adopted novel multivariate fuzzy time series models (MFTS) i.e. fuzzy vector autoregressive models (FVAR) alongside conventional vector autoregressive model (VAR) for assessing rice price and production using a dataset from the Malaysian Agricultural Research and Development Institute (MERDI). The proposed method(s) especially with the usage of Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers (TrFNs) have commendable accuracy with great future forecasts over the VAR model. The model selection was made by the least MAPE with the corresponding highest Relative Efficiency as criteria. The study fills the gap in applying advanced fuzzy models for rice forecasting, aiming to improve accuracy using fuzzy vector autoregressive (FVAR) models with Triangular Fuzzy Numbers (TFNs) and Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers (TrFNs) over traditional VAR models. The study's findings imply that the enhanced forecasting accuracy of FVAR models with Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers (TrFNs) can significantly assist local farmers and stakeholders in making informed decisions about production and pricing. This improved forecasting capability is expected to promote business growth within the Malaysian market and facilitate increased rice exports, ultimately contributing to the country's economic prosperity.