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  1. Edre MA, Muhammad Adil ZA, Jamalludin AR
    MyJurnal
    Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a novel pandemic that affects every other country in the world. Various countries have adopted control measures involving restriction of movement. Several studies have used mathematical modelling to predict the dynamic of this pandemic. Forecasting techniques can be used to predict the incidence cases for the short term. The study aims to forecast the COVID-19 incidence using the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. MATERIALS AND METHODS:Using publicly available data, we performed a forecast of Malaysia COVID-19 new cases using Expert Modeler Method in SPSS and ARIMA model in R to predict COVID-19 cases in Malaysia. We compare 3 different time frames based on different Movement Control Order (MCO) period. We compare the model fit and prediction across models.RESULTS:All models show static cases for each MCO 7-day prediction. For prediction until 12 May, the third MCO time frame shows the best model fit for both techniques. Both software shows a stationary trend of cases of below 100. CONCLUSION:These MCO models have shown to stabilize the rate of new cases. Further sub analysis and quality of data is needed to improve the accuracy of the model.
  2. Muhammad Adil ZA, Nur Zawani J, Hazariah AH, Rao G, Zailiza S, Mohd Nasir H
    Med J Malaysia, 2019 Oct;74(5):413-417.
    PMID: 31649218
    INTRODUCTION: A methanol outbreak occurred in the district of Hulu Langat on 16 September 2018. The Hulu Langat District Health Office received 25 notifications of a suspected methanol poisoning from Kajang and Ampang Hospital. An outbreak investigation was done to determine the source followed by a preventive and control measure.

    METHOD: Active case detection was done on cases living quarters and workplaces. Patients were interviewed, and their blood and urine samples were sent for methanol analysis. Samples of suspected alcoholic beverages were also sent for analysis. A suspected case was defined as any person presented with clinical symptoms with a history of consuming alcoholic beverages within five days before symptoms and high anion gap metabolic acidosis. A confirmed case was defined as a suspected case with positive blood and urine methanol.

    RESULTS: In total, there were 25 suspected cases, of which 12 cases were confirmed. The calculated attack rate was 48%. There were six mortalities (50%) secondary to severe metabolic acidosis. The most common presenting symptom was vomiting (75%) and abdominal pain (41.7%). These cases were linked to consumption of illicitly produced alcohol. Samples of the alcoholic drinks were positive containing high level of methanol.

    CONCLUSION: The methanol outbreak in the Hulu Langat was successfully managed. Appropriate control and prevention measures were taken, including health promotion and joint enforcement activities. Steps were taken successfully through collaborations with multiple agencies and cooperation with Selangor Health Departments and the Ministry of Health. Continuous surveillance on the product of liquor, and health promotion are essential to prevent a similar outbreak from happening again in future.

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