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Fulltext Unravelling the myths of R0 in controlling the dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak: A modelling perspective

Mohd MH, Sulayman F

Chaos Solitons Fractals, 2020 Sep;138:109943.
PMID: 32834577 DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109943

COVID-19 is an emerging and rapidly evolving pandemic around the world, which causes severe acute respiratory syndrome and results in substantial morbidity and mortality. To examine the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, we investigate the spread of this pandemic using Malaysia as a case study and scrutinise its interactions with some exogenous factors such as limited medical resources and false detection problems. To do this, we employ a simple epidemiological model and analyse this system using modelling and dynamical systems techniques. We discover some contrasting findings with respect to the observations of basic reproduction number: while it is observed that R0 seems to provide a good description of transmission dynamics in simple outbreak scenarios, this quantity might mislead the assessment on the severity of pandemic when certain complexities such as limited medical resources and false detection problems are incorporated into the model. In particular, we observe the possibility of a COVID-19 outbreak through bistable behaviour, even when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. Based on these findings, we caution policy makers not to make their decisions solely based on the guidance of the basic reproduction number only, which clearly could cause trouble.
Dynamical systems analysis of a reaction-diffusion SIRS model with optimal control for the COVID-19 spread

Salman AM, Mohd MH

Comput Methods Biomech Biomed Engin, 2024 Nov 13.
PMID: 39534924 DOI: 10.1080/10255842.2024.2423879

We examine an SIRS reaction-diffusion model with local dispersal and spatial heterogeneity to study COVID-19 dynamics. Using the operator semigroup approach, we establish the existence of disease-free equilibrium (DFE) and endemic equilibrium (EE), and derive the basic reproduction number, R0. Simulations show that without dispersal, reinfection and limited medical resources problems can cause a plateau in cases. Dispersal and spatial heterogeneity intensify localised outbreaks, while integrated control strategies (vaccination and treatment) effectively reduce infection numbers and epidemic duration. The possibility of reinfection demonstrates the need for adaptable health measures. These insights can guide optimised control strategies for enhanced public health preparedness.
Identification, pathogenicity and histopathology of Colletotrichum sansevieriae causing anthracnose of Sansevieria trifasciata in Malaysia

Kee YJ, Zakaria L, Mohd MH

J Appl Microbiol, 2020 Sep;129(3):626-636.
PMID: 32167647 DOI: 10.1111/jam.14640

AIMS: To characterize causal pathogen of Sansevieria trifasciata anthracnose through morphology and molecular analysis; to evaluate the host range of the pathogen; and to explicate the infection process by the pathogen histopathologically.
METHODS AND RESULTS: Symptomatic leaves of S. trifasciata were collected from five states in Malaysia. The causal pathogen was isolated and identified for the first time in Malaysia as C. sansevieriae based on morphological and multi-gene phylogenetic analyses using ITS, TUB2 and GAPDH sequences. Pathogenicity tests were conducted on different hosts. Colletotrichum sansevieriae was not pathogenic towards S. cylindrica, S. masoniana, Furcraea foetida, Chlorophytum comosum, Aloe vera and Gasteria carinata, confirming the exceptionally high host specificity for a species of Colletotrichum. Histopathology was performed using light microscope and scanning electron microscopy to study the infection process of C. sansevieriae on S. trifasciata. Colonization of host leaves by the pathogen was observed 2 days after inoculation.
CONCLUSIONS: Colletotrichum sansevieriae caused anthracnose of S. trifasciata in Malaysia. It is a host-specific pathogen and colonized the host intracellularly.
SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: This is the first report of C. sansevieriae causing anthracnose of S. trifasciata in Malaysia. The host range test and understanding of the infection process will provide better understanding of the host-pathogen relationship and beneficial for effective disease management.
Identification of Botryosphaeriaceae associated with stem-end rot of mango (Mangifera indica L.) in Malaysia

Li L, Mohd MH, Mohamed Nor NMI, Subramaniam S, Latiffah Z

J Appl Microbiol, 2021 Apr;130(4):1273-1284.
PMID: 32813902 DOI: 10.1111/jam.14828

AIMS: To identify Botryosphaeriaceae fungal species that are associated with stem-end rot of mango, and to study their pathogenicity on mango fruit.
METHODS AND RESULTS: Based on the sequences of internal transcribed spacer (ITS), TEF1-α and β-tubulin, as well as on the phylogenetic analysis of combined sequences, four species of Lasiodiplodia (L. theobromae,L. pseudotheobromae, L. iranensis, L. mahajangana) and two species of Neofusicoccum (N. ribis, N. parvum) were identified. Pseudofusicoccum violaceum, Neoscytalidium dimidiatum and three species of Botryosphaeria (B. scharifii, B. dothidea, B. ramosa) were identified based on sequences of ITS and TEF1-α. Pathogenicity test of selected isolates were tested on Chok Anan, Waterlily and Falan mango cultivars. Generally, all species were observed to be pathogenic on the three tested mango cultivars on wounded fruits, except for N. ribis and N. parvum, which were pathogenic on both wounded and unwounded fruits. However, N. ribis was only pathogenic on cultivar Falan, whereas B. ramosa were pathogenic on cultivars Waterlily and Falan.
CONCLUSIONS: Eleven species of Botryosphaeriaceae were associated with mango stem-end rot in Malaysia. To the best of our knowledge, four species, namely L. mahajangana, B. ramosa, N. ribis and P. violaceum are the first recorded Botryosphaeriaceae fungi associated with stem end rot of mango.
SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: The identification of Botryosphaeriaceae fungi is important to establish suitable control measures and quarantine requirements. Many species have a wide host range, which means that there is a possibility of cross infection from other infected plants.
Internal phosphorus recycling promotes rich and complex dynamics in an algae-phosphorus model: Implications for eutrophication management

Tay CJ, Mohd MH, Teh SY, Koh HL

J Theor Biol, 2022 01 07;532:110913.
PMID: 34562459 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110913

Internal phosphorus recycling in lakes is an important nutrient source that promotes algal growth. Its persistence impedes the effort to improve water quality and thus poses a challenge to the management of eutrophication in lakes, especially in shallow lakes where the occurrence of internal phosphorus recycling is reportedly more common. This paper aims to provide crucial insights on the effects of internal phosphorus recycling on eutrophication dynamics for effective management of lake eutrophication. For this purpose, a mathematical model for lake eutrophication, comprising two compartments of algae and phosphorus, is first formulated for application to a eutrophic tropical lake named Tasik Harapan in Universiti Sains Malaysia. Numerical bifurcation analysis of the model is then performed to assess the combined influences of internal phosphorus recycling, algal mortality and external phosphorus loading on Tasik Harapan eutrophication dynamics. Specifically, co-dimension one bifurcation analysis of algal mortality rate is carried out by means of XPPAUT for various external phosphorus loading rates. The emergence of limit cycle for a certain range of algal mortality rate could be related to the hydra effect (i.e., algal concentration increases in response to greater algal mortality) and the paradox of enrichment (i.e., destabilization of algae in nutrient rich environment). To trace the locus of co-dimension one bifurcation, co-dimension two bifurcation analysis is performed by means of MatCont. The analysis demonstrated that the inclusion of the internal phosphorus recycling term induces rich and complex dynamics of the model. These dynamics include saddle-node bifurcation, cusp, Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation, Generalized Hopf bifurcation and limit point bifurcation of cycles. The results suggest that high internal phosphorus recycling rate promotes bistability and catastrophic shift in a shallow and tropical lake like Tasik Harapan. Hence, the key to effective management of eutrophication in shallow and tropical lakes is the control of internal phosphorus recycling.
Characterization of white rot fungi from wood decayed for lignin degradation

Nurul-Aliyaa YA, Awang NA, Mohd MH

Lett Appl Microbiol, 2023 Oct 04;76(10).
PMID: 37777838 DOI: 10.1093/lambio/ovad118

The present study was conducted to isolate and identify white rot fungi (WRF) from wood decayed and to determine their ability to produce lignin-modifying enzymes (LMEs), specifically laccase (Lac), lignin peroxidase (LiP), and manganese peroxidase (MnP), on solid and liquid media supplemented with synthetic dyes namely 2,2'-Azino-bis(3-ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sulfonic acid) (ABTS), azure B, and phenol red. A total of 23 isolates of WRF were isolated from decayed wood and identified as eight different species namely Phanerochaete australis, Perenniporia tephropora, Lentinus squarrosulus, Ganoderma australe, Trametes polyzona, Lentinus sajor-caju, Gymnopilus dilepis, and Fomitopsis palustris based on morphological characteristics, DNA sequences of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region, and phylogenetic inference. The fungal isolates can be divided into four groups based on the type of LMEs produced, namely A (Lac-LiP-MnP) with 16 isolates, B (Lac-MnP) (three isolates), C (Lac) (three isolates), and D (MnP) (one isolate). This study highlights P. australis (BJ38) as the best producer of Lac and LiP, while L. squarrosulus (IPS72) is the best producer of MnP. The present study is the first reported P. australis as an efficient lignin degrader by demonstrating the highest activity of two important LMEs.
Fulltext Fusarium Species in Mangrove Soil in Northern Peninsular Malaysia and the Soil Physico-Chemical Properties

Mohamed Zubi WS, Mohd MH, Mohamed Nor NMI, Zakaria L

Microorganisms, 2021 Feb 26;9(3).
PMID: 33652900 DOI: 10.3390/microorganisms9030497

Fusarium genus comprises important saprophytic and phytopathogenic fungi and is widespread in nature. The present study reports the occurrence of Fusarium spp. in soils from two mangrove forests in northern Peninsular Malaysia and analyzed physico-chemical properties of the mangrove soil. Based on TEF-1α sequences, nine Fusarium species were identified: Fusarium solani species complex (FSSC) (n = 77), Fusarium verticillioides (n = 20), Fusarium incarnatum (n = 10), Fusarium proliferatum (n = 7), Fusarium lateritium (n = 4), Fusarium oxysporum (n = 3), Fusarium rigidiuscula (n = 2), Fusarium chlamydosporum (n = 1), and Fusarium camptoceras (n = 1); FSSC isolates were the most prevalent. Phylogenetic analysis of the combined TEF-1α and ITS sequences revealed diverse phylogenetic affinities among the FSSC isolates and potentially new phylogenetic clades of FSSC. Soil analysis showed varied carbon content, pH, soil moisture, and salinity, but not nitrogen content, between sampling locations. Regardless of the physico-chemical properties, various Fusarium species were recovered from the mangrove soils. These were likely saprophytes; however, some were well-known plant pathogens and opportunistic human pathogens. Thus, mangrove soils might serve as inoculum sources for plant and human pathogenic Fusarium species. The present study demonstrates the occurrence of various Fusarium species in the extreme environment of mangrove soil, thereby contributing to the knowledge on species diversity in Fusarium.
Fulltext Stability analysis and optimal control of covid-19 with convex incidence rate in Khyber Pakhtunkhawa (Pakistan)

Khan A, Zarin R, Hussain G, Ahmad NA, Mohd MH, Yusuf A

Results Phys, 2021 Jan;20:103703.
PMID: 33520623 DOI: 10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103703

The dynamic of covid-19 epidemic model with a convex incidence rate is studied in this article. First, we formulate the model without control and study all the basic properties and results including local and global stability. We show the global stability of disease free equilibrium using the method of Lyapunov function theory while for disease endemic, we use the method of geometrical approach. Furthermore, we develop a model with suitable optimal control strategies. Our aim is to minimize the infection in the host population. In order to do this, we use two control variables. Moreover, sensitivity analysis complemented by simulations are performed to determine how changes in parameters affect the dynamical behavior of the system. Taking into account the central manifold theory the bifurcation analysis is also incorporated. The numerical simulations are performed in order to show the feasibility of the control strategy and effectiveness of the theoretical results.
Fulltext Risk Assessment of Fishing Trawl Activities to Subsea Pipelines of Sabah and Labuan Waters

Ahmad Fuad AF, Said MH, Samo K, Rahman MAA, Mohd MH, Zainol I

ScientificWorldJournal, 2020;2020:6957171.
PMID: 33414690 DOI: 10.1155/2020/6957171

Introduction. Trawling is a method of catching fish in a large volume where fish nets are pulled through water using one or two boats. Bottom trawling is where the nets are pulled over on the seabed. The gear of the bottom trawling would impact the exposed subsea pipeline, on the seabed. Subsea pipelines transport crude oil and gas from the offshore platform to shore facility. This study assesses the risk of fish trawling activities to the subsea pipelines at Sabah and Labuan offshore. The specification of trawl equipment used by local trawlers in Sabah was determined by the on-site survey. The frequency of a fish trawler crossing over the pipelines was calculated based interview on operation and site survey. The calculation of the pull-over load of the otter board was calculated using the DNVGL algorithm. The severity and frequency index of the risk matrix was developed based on literature review. Results showed that the pull-over load of the otter board would not damage the pipelines. The risk posed by the fish trawler activity to the pipelines is low and moderate.
Fulltext Identification and Characterization of Macrophomina phaseolina Causing Leaf Blight on White Spider Lilies (Crinum asiaticum and Hymenocallis littoralis) in Malaysia

Huda-Shakirah AR, Kee YJ, Hafifi ABM, Mohamad Azni NN, Zakaria L, Mohd MH

Mycobiology, 2019;47(4):408-414.
PMID: 32010462 DOI: 10.1080/12298093.2019.1682448

Crinum asiaticum and Hymenocallis littoralis, commonly known as spider lilies are bulbous perennial and herbaceous plants that widely planted in Malaysia as ornamental. During 2015-2016, symptom of leaf blight was noticed on the hosts from several locations in Penang. The symptom appeared as irregular brown to reddish lesions surrounded by yellow halos. As the disease progressed, the infected leaves became blighted, dried, and fell off with the presence of black microsclerotia and pycnidia on the lesions parts. The present study was conducted to investigate the causal pathogen of leaf blight on C. asiaticum and H. littoralis. Based on morphological characteristics and DNA sequences of internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region and translation elongation factor 1-alpha (TEF1-α) gene, the causal pathogen was identified as Macrophomina phaseolina. Phylogenetic analysis of combined dataset of ITS and TEF1-α grouped the isolates studied with other isolates of M. phaseolina from GenBank. The grouping of the isolates was supported by 96% bootstrap value. Pathogenicity test proved the role of the fungus in causing leaf blight on both hosts.
Fulltext Molecular Phylogeny of Endophytic Fungi from Rattan (Calamus castaneus Griff.) Spines and Their Antagonistic Activities against Plant Pathogenic Fungi

Azuddin NF, Mohd MH, Rosely NFN, Mansor A, Zakaria L

J Fungi (Basel), 2021 Apr 15;7(4).
PMID: 33920922 DOI: 10.3390/jof7040301

Calamus castaneus is a common rattan palm species in the tropical forests of Peninsular Malaysia and is noticeable by the yellow-based spines that cover the stems. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of fungal endophytes within C. castaneus spines and whether they inhibit the growth of fungal pathogens. Twenty-one genera with 40 species of fungal endophytes were isolated and identified from rattan palm spines. Based on molecular identification, the most common isolates recovered from the spines were Colletotrichum (n = 19) and Diaporthe spp. (n = 18), followed by Phyllosticta spp., Xylaria sp., Trichoderma spp., Helminthosporium spp., Penicillium spp., Fusarium spp., Neopestalotiopsis spp., Arthrinium sp., Cyphellophora sp., Cladosporium spp., Curvularia sp., Bionectria sp., and Acremonium spp. Non-sporulating fungi were also identified, namely Nemania primolutea, Pidoplitchkoviella terricola, Muyocopron laterale, Acrocalymma fici, Acrocalymma medicaginis, and Endomelanconiopsis endophytica. The isolation of these endophytes showed that the spines harbor endophytic fungi. Most of the fungal endophytes inhibited the growth of several plant pathogenic fungi, with 68% of the interactions resulting in mutual inhibition, producing a clear inhibition zone of <2 mm. Our findings demonstrate the potential of the fungal endophytes from C. castaneus spines as biocontrol agents.
Fulltext Corrigendum to "Risk Assessment of Fishing Trawl Activities to Subsea Pipelines of Sabah and Labuan Waters"

Fuad AFA, Said MH, Samo K, Rahman MAA, Mohd MH, Zainol I

ScientificWorldJournal, 2020;2020:7014928.
PMID: 33522519 DOI: 10.1155/2020/7014928

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1155/2020/6957171.].
Fulltext Diaporthe species causing stem gray blight of red-fleshed dragon fruit (Hylocereus polyrhizus) in Malaysia

Huda-Shakirah AR, Kee YJ, Wong KL, Zakaria L, Mohd MH

Sci Rep, 2021 02 16;11(1):3907.
PMID: 33594187 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-83551-z

This study aimed to characterize the new fungal disease on the stem of red-fleshed dragon fruit (Hylocereus polyrhizus) in Malaysia, which is known as gray blight through morphological, molecular and pathogenicity analyses. Nine fungal isolates were isolated from nine blighted stems of H. polyrhizus. Based on morphological characteristics, DNA sequences and phylogeny (ITS, TEF1-α, and β-tubulin), the fungal isolates were identified as Diaporthe arecae, D. eugeniae, D. hongkongensis, D. phaseolorum, and D. tectonendophytica. Six isolates recovered from the Cameron Highlands, Pahang belonged to D. eugeniae (DF1 and DF3), D. hongkongensis (DF9), D. phaseolorum (DF2 and DF12), and D. tectonendophytica (DF7), whereas three isolates from Bukit Kor, Terengganu were recognized as D. arecae (DFP3), D. eugeniae (DFP4), and D. tectonendophytica (DFP2). Diaporthe eugeniae and D. tectonendophytica were found in both Pahang and Terengganu, D. phaseolorum and D. hongkongensis in Pahang, whereas D. arecae only in Terengganu. The role of the Diaporthe isolates in causing stem gray blight of H. polyrhizus was confirmed. To date, only D. phaseolorum has been previously reported on Hylocereus undatus. This is the first report on D. arecae, D. eugeniae, D. hongkongensis, D. phaseolorum, and D. tectonendophytica causing stem gray blight of H. polyrhizus worldwide.
Fulltext Scenario analysis of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Malaysia with the possibility of reinfection and limited medical resources scenarios

Salman AM, Ahmed I, Mohd MH, Jamiluddin MS, Dheyab MA

Comput Biol Med, 2021 Jun;133:104372.
PMID: 33864970 DOI: 10.1016/j.compbiomed.2021.104372

COVID-19 is a major health threat across the globe, which causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), and it is highly contagious with significant mortality. In this study, we conduct a scenario analysis for COVID-19 in Malaysia using a simple universality class of the SIR system and extensions thereof (i.e., the inclusion of temporary immunity through the reinfection problems and limited medical resources scenarios leads to the SIRS-type model). This system has been employed in order to provide further insights on the long-term outcomes of COVID-19 pandemic. As a case study, the COVID-19 transmission dynamics are investigated using daily confirmed cases in Malaysia, where some of the epidemiological parameters of this system are estimated based on the fitting of the model to real COVID-19 data released by the Ministry of Health Malaysia (MOH). We observe that this model is able to mimic the trend of infection trajectories of COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia and it is possible for transmission dynamics to be influenced by the reinfection force and limited medical resources problems. A rebound effect in transmission could occur after several years and this situation depends on the intensity of reinfection force. Our analysis also depicts the existence of a critical value in reinfection threshold beyond which the infection dynamics persist and the COVID-19 outbreaks are rather hard to eradicate. Therefore, understanding the interplay between distinct epidemiological factors using mathematical modelling approaches could help to support authorities in making informed decisions so as to control the spread of this pandemic effectively.
Modelling COVID-19 Scenarios for the States and Federal Territories of Malaysia

Ahmad NA, Mohd MH, Musa KI, Abdullah JM, Othman NA

Malays J Med Sci, 2021 Oct;28(5):1-9.
PMID: 35115883 DOI: 10.21315/mjms2021.28.5.1

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes COVID-19 disease, which has become pandemic since December 2019. In the recent months, among five countries in the Southeast Asia, Malaysia has the highest per-capita daily new cases and daily new deaths. A mathematical modelling approach using a Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) technique was used to generate data-driven 30-days ahead forecasts for the number of daily cases in the states and federal territories in Malaysia at four consecutive time points between 27 July 2021 and 26 August 2021. Each forecast was produced using SSA prediction model of the current major trend at each time point. The objective is to understand the transition dynamics of COVID-19 in each state by analysing the direction of change of the major trends during the period of study. The states and federal territories in Malaysia were grouped in four categories based on the nature of the transition. Overall, it was found that the COVID-19 spread has progressed unevenly across states and federal territories. Major regions like Selangor, Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya and Negeri Sembilan were in Group 3 (fast decrease in infectivity) and Labuan was in Group 4 (possible eradication of infectivity). Other states e.g. Pulau Pinang, Sabah, Sarawak, Kelantan and Johor were categorised in Group 1 (very high infectivity levels) with Perak, Kedah, Pahang, Terengganu and Melaka were classified in Group 2 (high infectivity levels). It is also cautioned that SSA provides a promising avenue for forecasting the transition dynamics of COVID-19; however, the reliability of this technique depends on the availability of good quality data.
Fulltext Measuring Time-Varying Effective Reproduction Numbers for COVID-19 and Their Relationship with Movement Control Order in Malaysia

Musa KI, Arifin WN, Mohd MH, Jamiluddin MS, Ahmad NA, Chen XW, et al.

Int J Environ Res Public Health, 2021 03 22;18(6).
PMID: 33809958 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18063273

To curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19) in Malaysia, the government imposed a nationwide movement control order (MCO) from 18 March 2020 to 3 May 2020. It was enforced in four phases (i.e., MCO 1, MCO 2, MCO 3 and MCO 4). In this paper, we propose an initiative to assess the impact of MCO by using time-varying reproduction number (Rt). We used data from the Johns Hopkins University Centre for Systems Science and Engineering Coronavirus repository. Day 1 was taken from the first assumed local transmission of COVID-19. We estimated Rt by using the EpiEstim package and plotted the epidemic curve and Rt. Then, we extracted the mean Rt at day 1, day 5 and day 10 for all MCO phases and compared the differences. The Rt values peaked around day 43, which was shortly before the start of MCO 1. The means for Rt at day 1, day 5, and day 10 for all MCOs ranged between 0.665 and 1.147. The average Rt gradually decreased in MCO 1 and MCO 2. Although spikes in the number of confirmed cases were observed when restrictions were gradually relaxed in the later MCO phases, the situation remained under control with Rt values being stabilised to below unity level (Rt value less than one).
Fulltext Reefing Viability Index for Rigs-to-Reefs (R2R) in Malaysia

Mohd MH, Rahman MAA, Nazri MN, Tan CH, Mohamad Y, Lim CS, et al.

ScientificWorldJournal, 2020;2020:4695894.
PMID: 33223970 DOI: 10.1155/2020/4695894

Decommissioning of the offshore platform as an artificial reef, known as Rigs-to-Reefs (R2R), has become a sustainable approach for oil companies. The platform was reused to serve the underwater ecosystem as an artificial reef for a new marine ecosystem which helps to tackle food security issue. This paper presents the findings of the formulation of the reefing viability index to recognize an offshore region that can be used for R2R projects within the South China Sea. The combined effects of spatial data, numerical modelling, and geographic system (GIS) are proposed to study the relationship of spawning ground coral reefs, diversity, and planula larvae in the process of colonization to establish a map of the reef potential environment. Coral connectivity and spawning behaviour were studied to determine the possible source of coral seedling released during the spawning season, twice a year. A geographic reef viability index was established consisting of seven parameters which are coral larval density, pelagic larval length, sea currents, temperature, chlorophyll-a, depth, and substrate availability. The ocean hydrodynamic model was designed to resemble the pattern of larval scattering. By using the simulations and rankings, there were 95 (21%) sites which could probably be used for in situ reefing, whereas 358 (79%) sites were likely ideal for ex situ reefing. Validation of the viability index was carried out using media footage assessment of remotely operated vehicle (ROV).

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