MATERIAL AND METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study conducted in a tertiary referral hospital in Sydney, Australia. In all, 212 women with a low-risk pregnancy or with gestational diabetes were recruited including 158 nulliparous and 54 parous women. Maternal demographic, clinical and ultrasound characteristics were collected at 37 weeks of gestation. Semi-Bayesian logistic regression and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation were used to assess the relation between cervical length and cesarean section in labor.

RESULTS: Rates of cesarean section were 5% (2/55) for cervical length ≤20 mm, 17% (17/101) for cervical length 20-32 mm, and 27% (13/56) for cervical length >32 mm. These rates were 4, 22 and 33%, respectively, in nulliparous women. In the semi-Bayesian analysis, the odds ratio for cesarean section was 6.2 (95% confidence interval 2.2-43) for cervical length 20-32 mm and 10 (95% confidence interval 4.8-74) for cervical length >32 mm compared with the lowest quartile of cervical length, after adjusting for maternal age, parity, height, prepregnancy body mass index, gestational diabetes, induction of labor, neonatal sex and birthweight centile.