Displaying publications 1 - 20 of 32 in total

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  1. Blasdell KR, Perera D, Firth C
    Am J Trop Med Hyg, 2019 03;100(3):506-509.
    PMID: 30526734 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.18-0616
    Rodents are the most prominent animal host of Bartonella spp., which are associated with an increasing number of human diseases worldwide. Many rodent species thrive in urban environments and live in close contact with people, which can lead to an increased human risk of infection from rodent-borne pathogens. In this study, we explored the prevalence and distribution of Bartonella spp. in rodents in urban, developing, and rural environments surrounding a growing city in Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo. We found that although Bartonella spp. infection was pervasive in most rodent species sampled, prevalence was highest in urban areas and infection was most commonly detected in the predominant indigenous rodent species sampled (Sundamys muelleri). Within the urban environment, parks and remnant green patches were significantly associated with the presence of both S. muelleri and Bartonella spp., indicating higher localized risk of infection for people using these environments for farming, foraging, or recreation.
  2. Chen Y, McConkey KR, Fan P
    Oecologia, 2023 Aug;202(4):715-727.
    PMID: 37553533 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-023-05430-w
    Mutualistic and antagonistic plant-animal interactions differentially contribute to the maintenance of species diversity in ecological communities. Although both seed dispersal and predation by fruit-eating animals are recognized as important drivers of plant population dynamics, the mechanisms underlying how seed dispersers and predators jointly affect plant diversity remain largely unexplored. Based on mediating roles of seed size and species abundance, we investigated the effects of seed dispersal and predation by two sympatric primates (Nomascus concolor and Trachypithecus crepusculus) on local plant recruitment in a subtropical forest of China. Over a 26 month period, we confirmed that these primates were functionally distinct: gibbons were legitimate seed dispersers who dispersed seeds of 44 plant species, while langurs were primarily seed predators who destroyed seeds of 48 plant species. Gibbons dispersed medium-seeded species more effectively than small- and large-seeded species, and dispersed more seeds of rare species than common and dominant species. Langurs showed a similar predation rate across different sizes of seeds, but destroyed a large number of seeds from common species. Due to gut passage effects, gibbons significantly shortened the duration of seed germination for 58% of the dispersed species; however, for 54% of species, seed germination rates were reduced significantly. Our study underlined the contrasting contributions of two primate species to local plant recruitment processes. By dispersing rare species and destroying the seeds of common species, both primates might jointly maintain plant species diversity. To maintain healthy ecosystems, the conservation of mammals that play critical functional roles needs to receive further attention.
  3. Tsuji Y, Campos-Arceiz A, Prasad S, Kitamura S, McConkey KR
    Sci Rep, 2020 01 30;10(1):1532.
    PMID: 32001788 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-58381-0
    We use individual-based information on the behavior of wild female Japanese macaques in two consecutive years with different food availability (nut-rich vs. nut-poor) to test effects of dominance rank and nut fruiting on seed dispersal parameters. We predicted that social rank would affect dispersal (1) quantity, (2) quality, (3) species richness, and (4) percentage of berries in the diet in the nut-poor year, while these differences would disappear in the nut-rich year. We found seeds of nine fleshy-fruited plant species in the feces of the monkeys. The frequency of seed occurrence for two plant species (Viburnum dilatatum and Rosa multiflora) showed an interaction between dominance ranks and years; in the nut-poor year V. dilatatum seeds were more abundant among dominant females and R. multiflora among subordinates, while such inter-rank differences disappeared in the nut-rich year. Similarly, the intact ratio of V. dilatatum seeds was lower for dominants in the nut-poor year, while inter-rank variations disappeared in the nut-rich year. Finally, percentage of berries in diet and seed richness showed no inter-annual nor inter-rank variations. Our study highlights that differences in individuals' social rank lead to within-group variation in seed dispersal services and that these differences are dependent on nut availability.
  4. Blasdell KR, Wynne JW, Perera D, Firth C
    Access Microbiol, 2021;3(4):000223.
    PMID: 34151174 DOI: 10.1099/acmi.0.000223
    Current phylogenetic analysis of the flavivirus genus has identified a group of mosquito-borne viruses for which the vertebrate hosts are currently unknown. Here we report the identification of a novel member of this group from a peridomestic rodent species (Sundamys muelleri) collected in Sarawak, Malaysia in 2016. We propose to name this novel flavivirus Batu Kawa virus after the location in which it was identified, with the abbreviation BKWV. Characterization of the BKWV genome allowed identification of putative mature peptides, potential enzyme motifs and conserved structural elements. Phylogenetic analysis found BKWV to be most closely related to Nhumirim virus (from Brazil) and Barkedji virus (from Senegal and Israel). Both of these viruses have been identified in Culex mosquitoes and belong to a group of viruses with unknown vertebrate hosts. This is the first known report of a member of this group of viruses from a potential mammalian host.
  5. Blasdell KR, Morand S, Perera D, Firth C
    PLoS Negl Trop Dis, 2019 02;13(2):e0007141.
    PMID: 30811387 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007141
    Although leptospirosis is traditionally considered a disease of rural, agricultural and flooded environments, Leptospira spp. are found in a range of habitats and infect numerous host species, with rodents among the most significant reservoirs and vectors. To explore the local ecology of Leptospira spp. in a city experiencing rapid urbanization, we assessed Leptospira prevalence in rodents from three locations in Malaysian Borneo with differing levels of anthropogenic influence: 1) high but stable influence (urban); 2) moderate yet increasing (developing); and 3) low (rural). A total of 116 urban, 122 developing and 78 rural rodents were sampled, with the majority of individuals assigned to either the Rattus rattus lineage R3 (n = 165) or Sundamys muelleri (n = 100). Leptospira spp. DNA was detected in 31.6% of all rodents, with more urban rodents positive (44.8%), than developing (32.0%) or rural rodents (28.1%), and these differences were statistically significant. The majority of positive samples were identified by sequence comparison to belong to known human pathogens L. interrogans (n = 57) and L. borgpetersenii (n = 38). Statistical analyses revealed that both Leptospira species occurred more commonly at sites with higher anthropogenic influence, particularly those with a combination of commercial and residential activity, while L. interrogans infection was also associated with low forest cover, and L. borgpetersenii was more likely to be identified at sites without natural bodies of water. This study suggests that some features associated with urbanization may promote the circulation of Leptospira spp., resulting in a potential public health risk in cities that may be substantially underestimated.
  6. Prathumratana L, Kim R, Kim KW
    Environ Geochem Health, 2020 Mar;42(3):1033-1044.
    PMID: 30206754 DOI: 10.1007/s10653-018-0186-9
    Lead contamination in topsoil of the mining and smelting area of Mitrovica, Kosovo, was investigated for total concentrations and chemical fractions by sequential extraction analysis, mineralogical fractions by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometer (SEM-EDX). The study revealed that all samples contained Pb exceeding USEPA standard of 400 mg kg-1. The highest total concentration of Pb (125,000 mg kg-1) was the soil from the former smelter. Sequential extraction results showed that the predominant form of Pb was associated with Fe-Mn oxide-bound fraction which ranged from 45.37 to 71.61% of total concentrations, while carbonate and silicate Pb-binding fractions were dominant when physical measurements (XRD and SEM-EDX) were applied. Application of Pb isotope ratios (206Pb/207Pb and 208Pb/206Pb), measured by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, identified that Pb contamination is originated from similar anthropogenic source. The results reflected that the Pb contamination in the soil of this area is serious. In order to provide proper approaches on remediation and prevention of health impacts to the people in this area, a continuous monitoring and health risk assessment are recommended.
  7. Aziz SA, Clements GR, Peng LY, Campos-Arceiz A, McConkey KR, Forget PM, et al.
    PeerJ, 2017;5:e3176.
    PMID: 28413729 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.3176
    There is an urgent need to identify and understand the ecosystem services of pollination and seed dispersal provided by threatened mammals such as flying foxes. The first step towards this is to obtain comprehensive data on their diet. However, the volant and nocturnal nature of bats presents a particularly challenging situation, and conventional microhistological approaches to studying their diet can be laborious and time-consuming, and provide incomplete information. We used Illumina Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS) as a novel, non-invasive method for analysing the diet of the island flying fox (Pteropus hypomelanus) on Tioman Island, Peninsular Malaysia. Through DNA metabarcoding of plants in flying fox droppings, using primers targeting the rbcL gene, we identified at least 29 Operationally Taxonomic Units (OTUs) comprising the diet of this giant pteropodid. OTU sequences matched at least four genera and 14 plant families from online reference databases based on a conservative Least Common Ancestor approach, and eight species from our site-specific plant reference collection. NGS was just as successful as conventional microhistological analysis in detecting plant taxa from droppings, but also uncovered six additional plant taxa. The island flying fox's diet appeared to be dominated by figs (Ficus sp.), which was the most abundant plant taxon detected in the droppings every single month. Our study has shown that NGS can add value to the conventional microhistological approach in identifying food plant species from flying fox droppings. At this point in time, more accurate genus- and species-level identification of OTUs not only requires support from databases with more representative sequences of relevant plant DNA, but probably necessitates in situ collection of plant specimens to create a reference collection. Although this method cannot be used to quantify true abundance or proportion of plant species, nor plant parts consumed, it ultimately provides a very important first step towards identifying plant taxa and spatio-temporal patterns in flying fox diets.
  8. McConkey KR, Nathalang A, Brockelman WY, Saralamba C, Santon J, Matmoon U, et al.
    PLoS One, 2018;13(7):e0198960.
    PMID: 30020929 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0198960
    The world's largest terrestrial animals (megafauna) can play profound roles in seed dispersal. Yet, the term 'megafauna' is often used to encompass a diverse range of body sizes and physiologies of, primarily, herbivorous animals. To determine the extent to which these animals varied in their seed dispersal effectiveness (SDE), we compared the contribution of different megafauna for the large-fruited Platymitra macrocarpa (Annonaceae), in a tropical evergreen forest in Thailand. We quantified 'seed dispersal effectiveness' by measuring the quantity and quality contributions of all consumers of P. macrocarpa fruit. Seed dispersal quantity was the proportion of the crop consumed by each species. Quality was defined as the proportion of seeds handled by each animal taxon that survived to produce a 2-month seedling. Megafauna (elephants, sambar deer, bears) dispersed 78% of seeds that produced seedlings, with 21% dispersed by gibbons (a medium-sized frugivore). The main megafaunal consumers displayed different dispersal strategies. Elephants were the most effective dispersers (37% of seedlings) and they achieved this by being high-quality and low-quantity dispersers. Bears displayed a similar strategy but were especially rare visitors to the trees (24% of the total seedlings produced). Sambar were high-quantity dispersers, but most seeds they handled did not survive and they were responsible for only 17% of seedlings. Gibbons displayed a high SDE relative to their body size, but they probably cannot match the role of elephants despite being more regular consumers of the fruit. The low density and poor regeneration of P. macrocarpa in the study site suggest that current dispersal rates by megafauna are insufficient, possibly reflecting reduced or missing megafauna populations. We show that different megafaunal species disperse seeds in different ways and may make unique contributions to the reproductive success of the plant species.
  9. Liu S, Dong Y, McConkey KR, Tran LP, Wang F, Liu H, et al.
    Ambio, 2023 Dec;52(12):1939-1951.
    PMID: 37392251 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-023-01898-1
    China prioritizes ecological civilization construction and embraces the concept of "lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets." Great achievements have been made in ecological protection and restoration through implementing a series of policies and projects. This paper reviews the history of ecological restoration in China and the current development of the "integrated protection and restoration project of mountains, rivers, forests, farmlands, lakes, grasslands, and deserts (IPRP)." Furthermore, the characteristics of IPRP were systematically elaborated from the perspectives of the ecological civilization thought, the policy management, and the key scientific issues. Also, the current achievements were summarized in the fields of national ecological space management, biodiversity conservation, and ecological protection and restoration. Existing challenges in management policy, scientific issues, and engineering practices were highlighted. Future perspectives include ecological space control, nature-based Solutions, biodiversity big data platform, modern techniques, and value realization mechanisms of ecological products.
  10. Alex Kim RJ, Chin ZH, Sharlyn P, Priscilla B, Josephine S
    Med J Malaysia, 2019 Oct;74(5):385-388.
    PMID: 31649213
    INTRODUCTION: Patient safety is defined as 'the prevention of harm caused by errors of commission and omission'. Patient safety culture is one of the important determining factor in safety and quality in healthcare. The purpose of this study is to assess the views and perceptions of health care professionals about patient safety culture in Sarawak General Hospital (SGH).

    METHODS: A cross-sectional study, using the 'Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture (HSOPSC)' questionnaire was carried out in 2018 in SGH. Random sampling was used to select a wide range of staff in SGH. A self-administered questionnaire was distributed to 500 hospital staff consisting of doctors, nurses, pharmacist and other clinical and non-clinical staff, conducted from March to April 2018. A total of 407 respondents successfully completed the questionnaire. Therefore, the final response rate for the survey was 81.4%. This study used SPSS 22.0 for Windows and Hospital Data Entry and Analysis Tool that works with Microsoft Excel developed by United States Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) to perform statistical analysis on the survey data.

    RESULTS: Majority of the respondents graded the overall patient safety as acceptable (63.1%) while only 3.4% graded as excellent. The overall patient safety score was 50.1% and most of the scores related to dimensions were lower than the benchmark scores (64.8%). Generally, the mean positive response rate for all the dimensions were lower than composite data of AHRQ, except for "Organizational Learning - Continuous Improvement", which is also the highest positive response rate (80%), higher than AHRQ data (73%). The result showed that SGH has a good opportunity to improve over time as it gains experience and accumulates knowledge. On the other hand, the lowest percentage of positive responses was "Non-punitive response to error" (18%), meaning that most of the staff perceived that they will be punished for medical error.

    CONCLUSIONS: The level of patient safety culture in SGH is acceptable and most of the scores related to dimensions were lower than benchmark score. SGH as a learning organisation should also address the issues of staffing, improving handoff and transition and develop a non-punitive culture in response to error.

  11. Walker PJ, Widen SG, Firth C, Blasdell KR, Wood TG, Travassos da Rosa AP, et al.
    Am J Trop Med Hyg, 2015 Nov;93(5):1041-51.
    PMID: 26324724 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.15-0344
    The genus Nairovirus of arthropod-borne bunyaviruses includes the important emerging human pathogen, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV), as well as Nairobi sheep disease virus and many other poorly described viruses isolated from mammals, birds, and ticks. Here, we report genome sequence analysis of six nairoviruses: Thiafora virus (TFAV) that was isolated from a shrew in Senegal; Yogue (YOGV), Kasokero (KKOV), and Gossas (GOSV) viruses isolated from bats in Senegal and Uganda; Issyk-Kul virus (IKV) isolated from bats in Kyrgyzstan; and Keterah virus (KTRV) isolated from ticks infesting a bat in Malaysia. The S, M, and L genome segments of each virus were found to encode proteins corresponding to the nucleoprotein, polyglycoprotein, and polymerase protein of CCHFV. However, as observed in Leopards Hill virus (LPHV) and Erve virus (ERVV), polyglycoproteins encoded in the M segment lack sequences encoding the double-membrane-spanning CCHFV NSm protein. Amino acid sequence identities, complement-fixation tests, and phylogenetic analysis indicated that these viruses cluster into three groups comprising KKOV, YOGV, and LPHV from bats of the suborder Yingochiroptera; KTRV, IKV, and GOSV from bats of the suborder Yangochiroptera; and TFAV and ERVV from shrews (Soricomorpha: Soricidae). This reflects clade-specific host and vector associations that extend across the genus.
  12. Jarić I, Heger T, Castro Monzon F, Jeschke JM, Kowarik I, McConkey KR, et al.
    Trends Ecol Evol, 2019 04;34(4):291-302.
    PMID: 30661709 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.12.008
    Ecological effects of alien species can be dramatic, but management and prevention of negative impacts are often hindered by crypticity of the species or their ecological functions. Ecological functions can change dramatically over time, or manifest after long periods of an innocuous presence. Such cryptic processes may lead to an underestimation of long-term impacts and constrain management effectiveness. Here, we present a conceptual framework of crypticity in biological invasions. We identify the underlying mechanisms, provide evidence of their importance, and illustrate this phenomenon with case studies. This framework has potential to improve the recognition of the full risks and impacts of invasive species.
  13. Aziz SA, Clements GR, McConkey KR, Sritongchuay T, Pathil S, Abu Yazid MNH, et al.
    Ecol Evol, 2017 Nov;7(21):8670-8684.
    PMID: 29152168 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.3213
    Fruit bats provide valuable pollination services to humans through a unique coevolutionary relationship with chiropterophilous plants. However, chiropterophily in the Old World and the pollination roles of large bats, such as flying foxes (Pteropus spp., Acerodon spp., Desmalopex spp.), are still poorly understood and require further elucidation. Efforts to protect these bats have been hampered by a lack of basic quantitative information on their role as ecosystem service providers. Here, we investigate the role of the locally endangered island flying fox Pteropus hypomelanus in the pollination ecology of durian (Durio zibethinus), an economically important crop in Southeast Asia. On Tioman Island, Peninsular Malaysia, we deployed 19 stations of paired infrared camera and video traps across varying heights at four individual flowering trees in a durian orchard. We detected at least nine species of animal visitors, but only bats had mutualistic interactions with durian flowers. There was a clear vertical stratification in the feeding niches of flying foxes and nectar bats, with flying foxes feeding at greater heights in the trees. Flying foxes had a positive effect on mature fruit set and therefore serve as important pollinators for durian trees. As such, semi-wild durian trees-particularly tall ones-may be dependent on flying foxes for enhancing reproductive success. Our study is the first to quantify the role of flying foxes in durian pollination, demonstrating that these giant fruit bats may have far more important ecological, evolutionary, and economic roles than previously thought. This has important implications and can aid efforts to promote flying fox conservation, especially in Southeast Asian countries.
  14. Shrestha R, Fisher C, Wickersham JA, Khati A, Kim R, Azwa I, et al.
    JMIR Form Res, 2021 Dec 16;5(12):e28311.
    PMID: 34924355 DOI: 10.2196/28311
    BACKGROUND: The use of mobile health (mHealth), including smartphone apps, can improve the HIV prevention cascade for key populations such as men who have sex with men (MSM). In Malaysia, where stigma and discrimination toward MSM are high, the mHealth platform has the potential to open new frontiers for HIV prevention efforts. However, little guidance is available to inform researchers about privacy and confidentiality concerns unique to the development and implementation of app-based HIV prevention programs.

    OBJECTIVE: Given the lack of empirical data in this area, we aim to understand the privacy and confidentiality concerns associated with participation in a hypothetical app-based research study for HIV prevention efforts.

    METHODS: A cross-sectional, web-based survey was conducted between June and July 2020 among 355 Malaysian MSM. The survey included demographic and sexual health questions and a series of short videos describing a hypothetical app-based HIV prevention program, followed by questions related to privacy and confidentiality concerns in each step of the app-based program (ie, recruitment, clinical interaction, risk assessment, and weekly reminder). Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify the correlates of willingness to use such an app-based program.

    RESULTS: Most of the participants (266/355, 74.9%) indicated their willingness to participate in a hypothetical mHealth app-based HIV prevention program. Participants expressed concerns about privacy, confidentiality, data security, and risks and benefits of participating in all stages of the app-based HIV research process. Multivariate analyses indicated that participants who had a higher degree of perceived participation benefits (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.873; 95% CI 1.274-2.755; P=.001) were more willing to participate. In contrast, participants who had increased concerns about app-based clinical interaction and e-prescription (aOR 0.610; 95% CI 0.445-0.838; P=.002) and those who had a higher degree of perceived risks of participating (aOR 0.731; 95% CI 0.594-0.899; P=.003) were less willing to participate.

    CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our results indicate that mHealth app-based HIV prevention programs are acceptable for future research on Malaysian MSM. The findings further highlighted the role of privacy and confidentiality, as well as the associated risks and benefits associated with participation in such a program. Given the ever-evolving nature of such technological platforms and the complex ethical-legal landscape, such platforms must be safe and secure to ensure widespread public trust and uptake.

  15. Brooks MA, Mukherjee T, Pillai V, Khoshnood K, Kim R, El-Bassel N
    PMID: 39601928 DOI: 10.1007/s10488-024-01427-6
    This paper examines the frequency of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and factors associated with mental health counseling utilization among adult refugees and asylum-seekers in Malaysia. Participants (n = 286) were recruited using venue-based random sampling from three health clinics in 2018. Framed by Andersen's model of health care utilization, we used a multilevel logistic regression and hypothesized that predisposing factors (female, older age, not married, higher education, lived longer in Malaysia, registered refugee), greater enabling factors (easy access to healthcare, larger household income, not needing interpreter, health literacy, larger household), and greater need factors (higher PTSD symptoms) would be associated with counseling attendance. We found one-third (34.3%) of participants screened positive for PTSD and most (71.9%) never attended counseling services. Our hypothesis was partially supported. Older age was associated with counseling attendance [OR:1.03 (95% CI:1.00,1.06)]. Enabling factors associated with counseling attendance include easy access to a health facility [OR:9.82 (95% CI:3.15,30.59)] and not needing interpreter services [OR:4.43 (95% CI:1.34,14.63)]. Greater need factor/PC-PTSD score [OR:0.69 (95% CI:0.52,0.91)]; however, was associated with lower counseling attendance. Other predisposing/enabling/need factors did not show significant associations. Understanding factors associated to care can benefit health clinics address gaps in counseling utilization for refugees and asylum-seekers in Malaysia.
  16. Blasdell KR, Davis SS, Voysey R, Bulach DM, Middleton D, Williams S, et al.
    Vet Res, 2020 Apr 29;51(1):58.
    PMID: 32349781 DOI: 10.1186/s13567-020-00781-1
    Bovine ephemeral fever is a vector-borne disease of ruminants that occurs in tropical and sub-tropical regions of Africa, Asia and Australia. The disease is caused by a rhabdovirus, bovine ephemeral fever virus (BEFV), which occurs as a single serotype globally. Although several other closely related ephemeroviruses have been isolated from cattle and/or arthropods, only kotonkan virus from Nigeria and (tentatively) Mavingoni virus from Mayotte Island in the Indian Ocean have been previously associated with febrile disease. Here, we report the isolation of a novel virus (Hayes Yard virus; HYV) from blood collected in February 2000 from a bull (Bos indicus) in the Northern Territory of Australia. The animal was suffering from a severe ephemeral fever-like illness with neurological involvement, including recumbency and paralysis, and was euthanised. Histological examination of spinal cord and lung tissue identified extensive haemorrhage in the dura mata with moderate perineuronal oedema and extensive emphysema. HYV displayed cone-shaped morphology, typical of rhabdoviruses, and was found to be most closely related antigenically to Puchong virus (PUCV), isolated in 1965 from mosquitoes in Malaysia. Analysis of complete genome sequences of HYV (15 025 nt) and PUCV (14 932 nt) indicated that each has a complex organisation (3' N-P-M-G-GNS-α1-α2-β-γ-L 5') and expression strategy, similar to that of BEFV. Based on an alignment of complete L protein sequences, HYV and PUCV cluster with other rhabdoviruses in the genus Ephemerovirus and appear to represent two new species. Neutralising antibody to HYV was also detected in a retrospective survey of cattle sera collected in the Northern Territory.
  17. Rodrigues IA, Sprinkhuizen SM, Barthelmes D, Blumenkranz M, Cheung G, Haller J, et al.
    Am J Ophthalmol, 2016 08;168:1-12.
    PMID: 27131774 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajo.2016.04.012
    PURPOSE: To define a minimum set of outcome measures for tracking, comparing, and improving macular degeneration care.

    DESIGN: Recommendations from a working group of international experts in macular degeneration outcomes registry development and patient advocates, facilitated by the International Consortium for Health Outcomes Measurement (ICHOM).

    METHODS: Modified Delphi technique, supported by structured teleconferences, followed by online surveys to drive consensus decisions. Potential outcomes were identified through literature review of outcomes collected in existing registries and reported in major clinical trials. Outcomes were refined by the working group and selected based on impact on patients, relationship to good clinical care, and feasibility of measurement in routine clinical practice.

    RESULTS: Standardized measurement of the following outcomes is recommended: visual functioning and quality of life (distance visual acuity, mobility and independence, emotional well-being, reading and accessing information); number of treatments; complications of treatment; and disease control. Proposed data collection sources include administrative data, clinical data during routine clinical visits, and patient-reported sources annually. Recording the following clinical characteristics is recommended to enable risk adjustment: age; sex; ethnicity; smoking status; baseline visual acuity in both eyes; type of macular degeneration; presence of geographic atrophy, subretinal fibrosis, or pigment epithelial detachment; previous macular degeneration treatment; ocular comorbidities.

    CONCLUSIONS: The recommended minimum outcomes and pragmatic reporting standards should enable standardized, meaningful assessments and comparisons of macular degeneration treatment outcomes. Adoption could accelerate global improvements in standardized data gathering and reporting of patient-centered outcomes. This can facilitate informed decisions by patients and health care providers, plus allow long-term monitoring of aggregate data, ultimately improving understanding of disease progression and treatment responses.

  18. Haw TJ, Starkey MR, Nair PM, Pavlidis S, Liu G, Nguyen DH, et al.
    Mucosal Immunol, 2016 Jul;9(4):859-72.
    PMID: 26555706 DOI: 10.1038/mi.2015.111
    Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a life-threatening inflammatory respiratory disorder, often induced by cigarette smoke (CS) exposure. The development of effective therapies is impaired by a lack of understanding of the underlining mechanisms. Tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) is a cytokine with inflammatory and apoptotic properties. We interrogated a mouse model of CS-induced experimental COPD and human tissues to identify a novel role for TRAIL in COPD pathogenesis. CS exposure of wild-type mice increased TRAIL and its receptor messenger RNA (mRNA) expression and protein levels, as well as the number of TRAIL(+)CD11b(+) monocytes in the lung. TRAIL and its receptor mRNA were also increased in human COPD. CS-exposed TRAIL-deficient mice had decreased pulmonary inflammation, pro-inflammatory mediators, emphysema-like alveolar enlargement, and improved lung function. TRAIL-deficient mice also developed spontaneous small airway changes with increased epithelial cell thickness and collagen deposition, independent of CS exposure. Importantly, therapeutic neutralization of TRAIL, after the establishment of early-stage experimental COPD, reduced pulmonary inflammation, emphysema-like alveolar enlargement, and small airway changes. These data provide further evidence for TRAIL being a pivotal inflammatory factor in respiratory diseases, and the first preclinical evidence to suggest that therapeutic agents that target TRAIL may be effective in COPD therapy.
  19. Romanello M, Napoli CD, Green C, Kennard H, Lampard P, Scamman D, et al.
    Lancet, 2023 Dec 16;402(10419):2346-2394.
    PMID: 37977174 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01859-7
    The Lancet Countdown is an international research collaboration that independently monitors the evolving impacts of climate change on health, and the emerging health opportunities of climate action. In its eighth iteration, this 2023 report draws on the expertise of 114 scientists and health practitioners from 52 research institutions and UN agencies worldwide to provide its most comprehensive assessment yet. In 2022, the Lancet Countdown warned that people’s health is at the mercy of fossil fuels and stressed the transformative opportunity of jointly tackling the concurrent climate change, energy, cost-of-living, and health crises for human health and wellbeing. This year’s report finds few signs of such progress. At the current 10-year mean heating of 1·14°C above pre-industrial levels, climate change is increasingly impacting the health and survival of people worldwide, and projections show these risks could worsen steeply with further inaction. However, with health matters gaining prominence in climate change negotiations, this report highlights new opportunities to deliver health-promoting climate change action and a safe and thriving future for all.

    THE RISING HEALTH TOLL OF A CHANGING CLIMATE: In 2023, the world saw the highest global temperatures in over 100 000 years, and heat records were broken in all continents through 2022. Adults older than 65 years and infants younger than 1 year, for whom extreme heat can be particularly life-threatening, are now exposed to twice as many heatwave days as they would have experienced in 1986–2005 (indicator 1.1.2). Harnessing the rapidly advancing science of detection and attribution, new analysis shows that over 60% of the days that reached health-threatening high temperatures in 2020 were made more than twice as likely to occur due to anthropogenic climate change (indicator 1.1.5); and heat-related deaths of people older than 65 years increased by 85% compared with 1990–2000, substantially higher than the 38% increase that would have been expected had temperatures not changed (indicator 1.1.5). Simultaneously, climate change is damaging the natural and human systems on which people rely for good health. The global land area affected by extreme drought increased from 18% in 1951–60 to 47% in 2013–22 (indicator 1.2.2), jeopardising water security, sanitation, and food production. A higher frequency of heatwaves and droughts in 2021 was associated with 127 million more people experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity compared with 1981–2010 (indicator 1.4), putting millions of people at risk of malnutrition and potentially irreversible health effects. The changing climatic conditions are also putting more populations at risk of life-threatening infectious diseases, such as dengue, malaria, vibriosis, and West Nile virus (indicator 1.3). Compounding these direct health impacts, the economic losses associated with global heating increasingly harm livelihoods, limit resilience, and restrict the funds available to tackle climate change. Economic losses from extreme weather events increased by 23% between 2010–14 and 2018–22, amounting to US$264 billion in 2022 alone (indicator 4.1.1), whereas heat exposure led to global potential income losses worth $863 billion (indicators 1.1.4 and 4.1.3). Labour capacity loss resulting from heat exposure affected low and medium Human Development Index (HDI) countries the most, exacerbating global inequities, with potential income losses equivalent to 6·1% and 3·8% of their gross domestic product (GDP), respectively (indicator 4.1.3). The multiple and simultaneously rising risks of climate change are amplifying global health inequities and threatening the very foundations of human health. Health systems are increasingly strained, and 27% of surveyed cities declared concerns over their health systems being overwhelmed by the impacts of climate change (indicator 2.1.3). Often due to scarce financial resources and low technical and human capacity, the countries most vulnerable to climate impacts also face the most challenges in achieving adaptation progress, reflecting the human risks of an unjust transition. Only 44% of low HDI countries and 54% of medium HDI countries reported high implementation of health emergency management capacities in 2022, compared with 85% of very high HDI countries (indicator 2.2.5). Additionally, low and medium HDI countries had the highest proportion of cities not intending to undertake a climate change risk assessment in 2021 (12%; indicator 2.1.3). These inequalities are aggravated by the persistent failure of the wealthiest countries to deliver the promised modest annual sum of $100 billion to support climate action in those countries defined as developing within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Consequently, those countries that have historically contributed the least to climate change are bearing the brunt of its health impacts—both a reflection and a direct consequence of the structural inequities that lie within the root causes of climate change.

    THE HUMAN COSTS OF PERSISTENT INACTION: The growing threats experienced to date are early signs and symptoms of what a rapidly changing climate could mean for the health of the world’s populations. With 1337 tonnes of CO2 emitted each second, each moment of delay worsens the risks to people’s health and survival. In this year’s report, new projections reveal the dangers of further delays in action, with every tracked health dimension worsening as the climate changes. If global mean temperature continues to rise to just under 2°C, annual heat-related deaths are projected to increase by 370% by midcentury, assuming no substantial progress on adaptation (indicator 1.1.5). Under such a scenario, heat-related labour loss is projected to increase by 50% (indicator 1.1.4), and heatwaves alone could lead to 524·9 million additional people experiencing moderate-to-severe food insecurity by 2041–60, aggravating the global risk of malnutrition. Life-threatening infectious diseases are also projected to spread further, with the length of coastline suitable for Vibrio pathogens expanding by 17–25%, and the transmission potential for dengue increasing by 36–37% by midcentury. As risks rise, so will the costs and challenges of adaptation. These estimates provide some indication of what the future could hold. However, poor accounting for non-linear responses, tipping points, and cascading and synergistic interactions could render these projections conservative, disproportionately increasing the threat to the health of populations worldwide.

    A WORLD ACCELERATING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION: The health risks of a 2°C hotter world underscore the health imperative of accelerating climate change action. With limits to adaptation drawing closer, ambitious mitigation is paramount to keep the magnitude of health hazards within the limits of the capacity of health systems to adapt. Yet years of scientific warnings of the threat to people’s lives have been met with grossly insufficient action, and policies to date have put the world on track to almost 3°C of heating. The 2022 Lancet Countdown report highlighted the opportunity to accelerate the transition away from health-harming fossil fuels in response to the global energy crisis. However, data this year show a world that is often moving in the wrong direction. Energy-related CO2 emissions increased by 0·9% to a record 36·8 Gt in 2022 (indicator 3.1.1), and still only 9·5% of global electricity comes from modern renewables (mainly solar and wind energy), despite their costs falling below that of fossil fuels. Concerningly, driven partly by record profits, oil and gas companies are further reducing their compliance with the Paris Agreement: the strategies of the world’s 20 largest oil and gas companies as of early 2023 will result in emissions surpassing levels consistent with the Paris Agreement goals by 173% in 2040—an increase of 61% from 2022 (indicator 4.2.6). Rather than pursuing accelerated development of renewable energy, fossil fuel companies allocated only 4% of their capital investment to renewables in 2022. Meanwhile, global fossil fuel investment increased by 10% in 2022, reaching over $1 trillion (indicator 4.2.1). The expansion of oil and gas extractive activities has been supported through both private and public financial flows. Across 2017–21, the 40 banks that lend most to the fossil fuel sector collectively invested $489 billion annually in fossil fuels (annual average), with 52% increasing their lending from 2010–16. Simultaneously, in 2020, 78% of the countries assessed, responsible for 93% of all global CO2 emissions, still provided net direct fossil fuels subsidies totalling $305 billion, further hindering fossil fuel phase-out (indicator 4.2.4). Without a rapid response to course correct, the persistent use and expansion of fossil fuels will ensure an increasingly inequitable future that threatens the lives of billions of people alive today.

    THE OPPORTUNITY TO DELIVER A HEALTHY FUTURE FOR ALL: Despite the challenges, data also expose the transformative health benefits that could come from the transition to a zero-carbon future, with health professionals playing a crucial role in ensuring these gains are maximised. Globally, 775 million people still live without electricity, and close to 1 billion people are still served by health-care facilities without reliable energy. With structural global inequities in the development of, access to, and use of clean energy, only 2·3% of electricity in low HDI countries comes from modern renewables (against 11% in very high HDI countries), and 92% of households in low HDI countries still rely on biomass fuels to meet their energy needs (against 7·5% in very high HDI countries; indicators 3.1.1 and 3.1.2). In this context, the transition to renewables can enable access to decentralised clean energy and, coupled with interventions to increase energy efficiency, can reduce energy poverty and power high quality health-supportive services. By reducing the burning of dirty fuels (including fossil fuels and biomass), such interventions could help avoid a large proportion of the 1·9 million deaths that occur annually from dirty-fuel-derived, outdoor, airborne, fine particulate matter pollution (PM2·5; indicator 3.2.1), and a large proportion of the 78 deaths per 100 000 people associated with exposure to indoor air pollution (indicator 3.2.2). Additionally, the just development of renewable energy markets can generate net employment opportunities with safer, more locally available jobs. Ensuring countries, particularly those facing high levels of energy poverty, are supported in the safe development, deployment, and adoption of renewable energy is key to maximising health gains and preventing unjust extractive industrial practices that can harm the health and livelihoods of local populations and widen health inequities. With fossil fuels accounting for 95% of road transport energy (indicator 3.1.3), interventions to enable and promote safe active travel and zero-emission public transport can further deliver emissions reduction, promote health through physical activity, and avert many of the 460 000 deaths caused annually by transport-derived PM2·5 pollution (indicator 3.2.1), and some of the 3·2 million annual deaths related to physical inactivity. People-centred, climate-resilient urban redesign to improve building energy efficiency, increase green and blue spaces, and promote sustainable cooling, can additionally prevent heat-related health harms, avoid air-conditioning-derived emissions (indicator 2.2.2), and provide direct physical and mental health benefits. Additionally, food systems are responsible for 30% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with 57% of agricultural emissions in 2020 being derived from the production of red meat and milk (indicator 3.3.1). Promoting and enabling equitable access to affordable, healthy, low-carbon diets that meet local nutritional and cultural requirements can contribute to mitigation, while preventing many of the 12·2 million deaths attributable to suboptimal diets (indicator 3.3.2). The health community could play a central role in securing these benefits, by delivering public health interventions to reduce air pollution, enabling and supporting active travel and healthier diets, and promoting improvements in the environmental conditions and commercial activities that define health outcomes. Importantly, the health sector can lead by example and transition to sustainable, resource-efficient, net-zero emission health systems, thereby preventing its 4·6% contribution to global GHG emissions, with cascading impacts ultimately affecting the broader economy (indicator 3.4). Some encouraging signs of progress offer a glimpse of the enormous human benefits that health-centred action could render. Deaths attributable to fossil-fuel-derived air pollution have decreased by 15·7% since 2005, with 80% of this reduction being the result of reduced coal-derived pollution. Meanwhile the renewable energy sector expanded to a historical high of 12·7 million employees in 2021 (indicator 4.2.2); and renewable energy accounted for 90% of the growth in electricity capacity in 2022 (indicator 3.1.1). Supporting this, global clean energy investment increased by 15% in 2022, to $1·6 trillion, exceeding fossil fuel investment by 61% (indicator 4.2.1); and lending to the green energy sector rose to $498 billion in 2021, approaching fossil fuel lending (indicator 4.2.7). Scientific understanding of the links between health and climate change is rapidly growing, and although coverage lags in some of the most affected regions, over 3000 scientific articles covered this topic in 2022 (indicators 5.3.1 and 5.3.2). Meanwhile, the health dimensions of climate change are increasingly acknowledged in the public discourse, with 24% of all climate change newspaper articles in 2022 referring to health, just short of the 26% in 2020 (indicator 5.1). Importantly, international organisations are increasingly engaging with the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation (indicator 5.4.2), and governments increasingly acknowledge this link, with 95% of updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement now referring to health—up from 73% in 2020 (indicator 5.4.1). These trends signal what could be the start of a life-saving transition.

    A PEOPLE-CENTRED TRANSFORMATION: PUTTING HEALTH AT THE HEART OF CLIMATE ACTION: With the world currently heading towards 3°C of heating, any further delays in climate change action will increasingly threaten the health and survival of billions of people alive today. If meaningful, the prioritisation of health in upcoming international climate change negotiations could offer an unprecedented opportunity to deliver health-promoting climate action and pave the way to a thriving future. However, delivering such an ambition will require confronting the economic interests of the fossil fuel and other health-harming industries, and delivering science-grounded, steadfast, meaningful, and sustained progress to shift away from fossil fuels, accelerate mitigation, and deliver adaptation for health. Unless such progress materialises, the growing emphasis on health within climate change negotiations risks being mere healthwashing; increasing the acceptability of initiatives that minimally advance action, and which ultimately undermine—rather than protect—the future of people alive today and generations to come. Safeguarding people’s health in climate policies will require the leadership, integrity, and commitment of the health community. With its science-driven approach, this community is uniquely positioned to ensure that decision makers are held accountable, and foster human-centred climate action that safeguards human health above all else. The ambitions of the Paris Agreement are still achievable, and a prosperous and healthy future still lies within reach. But the concerted efforts and commitments of health professionals, policy makers, corporations, and financial institutions will be needed to ensure the promise of health-centred climate action becomes a reality that delivers a thriving future for all.

  20. Romanello M, Di Napoli C, Drummond P, Green C, Kennard H, Lampard P, et al.
    Lancet, 2022 Nov 05;400(10363):1619-1654.
    PMID: 36306815 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01540-9
    The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown is published as the world confronts profound and concurrent systemic shocks. Countries and health systems continue to contend with the health, social, and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a persistent fossil fuel overdependence has pushed the world into global energy and cost-of-living crises. As these crises unfold, climate change escalates unabated. Its worsening impacts are increasingly affecting the foundations of human health and wellbeing, exacerbating the vulnerability of the world’s populations to concurrent health threats. During 2021 and 2022, extreme weather events caused devastation across every continent, adding further pressure to health services already grappling with the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Floods in Australia, Brazil, China, western Europe, Malaysia, Pakistan, South Africa, and South Sudan caused thousands of deaths, displaced hundreds of thousands of people, and caused billions of dollars in economic losses. Wildfires caused devastation in Canada, the USA, Greece, Algeria, Italy, Spain, and Türkiye, and record temperatures were recorded in many countries, including Australia, Canada, India, Italy, Oman, Türkiye, Pakistan, and the UK. With advancements in the science of detection and attribution studies, the influence of climate change over many events has now been quantified. Because of the rapidly increasing temperatures, vulnerable populations (adults older than 65 years, and children younger than one year of age) were exposed to 3·7 billion more heatwave days in 2021 than annually in 1986–2005 (indicator 1.1.2), and heat-related deaths increased by 68% between 2000–04 and 2017–21 (indicator 1.1.5), a death toll that was significantly exacerbated by the confluence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Simultaneously, the changing climate is affecting the spread of infectious diseases, putting populations at higher risk of emerging diseases and co-epidemics. Coastal waters are becoming more suitable for the transmission of Vibrio pathogens; the number of months suitable for malaria transmission increased by 31·3% in the highland areas of the Americas and 13·8% in the highland areas of Africa from 1951–60 to 2012–21, and the likelihood of dengue transmission rose by 12% in the same period (indicator 1.3.1). The coexistence of dengue outbreaks with the COVID-19 pandemic led to aggravated pressure on health systems, misdiagnosis, and difficulties in management of both diseases in many regions of South America, Asia, and Africa. The economic losses associated with climate change impacts are also increasing pressure on families and economies already challenged with the synergistic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the international cost-of-living and energy crises, further undermining the socioeconomic determinants that good health depends on. Heat exposure led to 470 billion potential labour hours lost globally in 2021 (indicator 1.1.4), with potential income losses equivalent to 0·72% of the global economic output, increasing to 5·6% of the GDP in low Human Development Index (HDI) countries, where workers are most vulnerable to the effects of financial fluctuations (indicator 4.1.3). Meanwhile, extreme weather events caused damage worth US$253 billion in 2021, particularly burdening people in low HDI countries in which almost none of the losses were insured (indicator 4.1.1). Through multiple and interconnected pathways, every dimension of food security is being affected by climate change, aggravating the impacts of other coexisting crises. The higher temperatures threaten crop yields directly, with the growth seasons of maize on average 9 days shorter in 2020, and the growth seasons of winter wheat and spring wheat 6 days shorter than for 1981–2010 globally (indicator 1.4). The threat to crop yields adds to the rising impact of extreme weather on supply chains, socioeconomic pressures, and the risk of infectious disease transmission, undermining food availability, access, stability, and utilisation. New analysis suggests that extreme heat was associated with 98 million more people reporting moderate to severe food insecurity in 2020 than annually in 1981–2010, in 103 countries analysed (indicator 1.4). The increasingly extreme weather worsens the stability of global food systems, acting in synergy with other concurrent crises to reverse progress towards hunger eradication. Indeed, the prevalence of undernourishment increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, and up to 161 million more people faced hunger during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 than in 2019. This situation is now worsened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the energy and cost-of-living crises, with impacts on international agricultural production and supply chains threatening to result in 13 million additional people facing undernutrition in 2022.

    A DEBILITATED FIRST LINE OF DEFENCE: With the worsening health impacts of climate change compounding other coexisting crises, populations worldwide increasingly rely on health systems as their first line of defence. However, just as the need for healthcare rises, health systems worldwide are debilitated by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy and cost-of-living crises. Urgent action is therefore needed to strengthen health-system resilience and to prevent a rapidly escalating loss of lives and to prevent suffering in a changing climate. However, only 48 (51%) of 95 countries reported having assessed their climate change adaptation needs (indicator 2.1.1) and, even after the profound impacts of COVID-19, only 60 (63%) countries reported a high to very high implementation status for health emergency management in 2021 (indicator 2.2.4). The scarcity of proactive adaptation is shown in the response to extreme heat. Despite the local cooling and overall health benefits of urban greenspaces, only 277 (27%) of 1038 global urban centres were at least moderately green in 2021 (indicator 2.2.3), and the number of households with air conditioning increased by 66% from 2000 to 2020, a maladaptive response that worsens the energy crisis and further increases urban heat, air pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. As converging crises further threaten the world’s life-supporting systems, rapid, decisive, and coherent intersectoral action is essential to protect human health from the hazards of the rapidly changing climate.

    HEALTH AT THE MERCY OF FOSSIL FUELS: The year 2022 marks the 30th anniversary of the signing of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, in which countries agreed to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change and its deleterious effects on human health and welfare. However, little meaningful action has since followed. The carbon intensity of the global energy system has decreased by less than 1% since the UNFCCC was established, and global electricity generation is still dominated by fossil fuels, with renewable energy contributing to only 8·2% of the global total (indicator 3.1). Simultaneously, the total energy demand has risen by 59%, increasing energy-related emissions to a historical high in 2021. Current policies put the world on track to a catastrophic 2·7°C increase by the end of the century. Even with the commitments that countries set in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) updated up until November 2021, global emissions could be 13·7% above 2010 levels by 2030—far from the 43% decrease from current levels required to meet Paris Agreement goals and keep temperatures within the limits of adaptation. Fossil fuel dependence is not only undermining global health through increased climate change impacts, but also affects human health and wellbeing directly, through volatile and unpredictable fossil fuel markets, frail supply chains, and geopolitical conflicts. As a result, millions of people do not have access to the energy needed to keep their homes at healthy temperatures, preserve food and medication, and meet the seventh Sustainable Development Goal (to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all). Without sufficient support, access to clean energy has been particularly slow in low HDI countries, and only 1·4% of their electricity came from modern renewables (mostly wind and solar power) in 2020 (indicator 3.1). An estimated 59% of healthcare facilities in low and middle-income countries still do not have access to the reliable electricity needed to provide basic care. Meanwhile, biomass accounts for as much as 31% of the energy consumed in the domestic sector globally, mostly from traditional sources—a proportion that increases to 96% in low HDI countries (indicator 3.2). The associated burden of disease is substantial, with the air in people’s homes exceeding WHO guidelines for safe concentrations of small particulate air pollution (PM2·5) in 2020 by 30-fold on average in the 62 countries assessed (indicator 3.2). After 6 years of improvement, the number of people without access to electricity increased in 2020 as a result of the socioeconomic pressures of the COVID-19 pandemic. The current energy and cost-of-living crises now threaten to reverse progress toward affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy, further undermining the socioeconomic determinants of health. Simultaneously, oil and gas companies are registering record profits, while their production strategies continue to undermine people’s lives and wellbeing. An analysis of the production strategies of 15 of the world’s largest oil and gas companies, as of February 2022, revealed they exceed their share of emissions consistent with 1·5°C of global heating (indicator 4.2.6) by 37% in 2030 and 103% in 2040, continuing to undermine efforts to deliver a low carbon, healthy, liveable future. Aggravating this situation even further, governments continue to incentivise fossil fuel production and consumption: 69 (80%) of 86 countries reviewed had net-negative carbon prices (ie, provided a net subsidy to fossil fuels) for a net total of US$400 billion in 2019, allocating amounts often comparable with or even exceeding their total health budgets (indicator 4.2.4). Simultaneously, wealthier countries failed to meet their commitment of mobilising the considerably lower sum of $100 billion annually by 2020 as agreed at the 2009 Copenhagen Accord to support climate action in “developing countries”, and climate efforts are being undercut by a profound scarcity of funding (indicator 2.1.1). The impacts of climate change on global economies, together with the recession triggered by COVID-19 and worsened by geopolitical instability, could paradoxically further reduce the willingness of countries to allocate the funds needed to enable a just climate transition.

    A HEALTH-CENTRED RESPONSE FOR A THRIVING FUTURE: The world is at a critical juncture. With countries facing concurrent crises, the implementation of long-term emissions-reduction policies risks being deflected or defeated by challenges wrongly perceived as more immediate. Addressing each of the concurrent crises in isolation risks alleviating one, while worsening another. Such a situation is emerging from the response to COVID-19, which has so far has not delivered the green recovery that the health community proposed, and, on the contrary, is aggravating climate change-related health risks. Less than one third of $3·11 trillion allocated to COVID-19 economic recovery is likely to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or air pollution, with the net effect likely to increase emissions. The COVID-19 pandemic affected climate action at the city level, and 239 (30%) of 798 cities reported that COVID-19 reduced financing available for climate action (indicator 2.1.3). As countries search for alternatives to Russian oil and gas, many continue to favour the burning of fossil fuels, with some even turning back to coal. Shifts in global energy supplies threaten to increase fossil fuel production. Even if implemented as a temporary transition, these responses could reverse progress on air quality improvement, irreversibly push the world off track from meeting the commitments set out in the Paris Agreement, and guarantee a future of accelerated climate change that threatens human survival. On the contrary, in this pivotal moment, a health-centred response to the current crises would still provide the opportunity for a low-carbon, resilient future, which not only avoids the health harms of accelerated climate change, but also delivers improved health and wellbeing through the associated co-benefits of climate action. Such response would see countries promptly shifting away from fossil fuels, reducing their dependence on fragile international oil and gas markets, and accelerating a just transition to clean energy sources. A health-centred response would reduce the likelihood of the most catastrophic climate change impacts, while improving energy security, creating an opportunity for economic recovery, and offering immediate health benefits. Improvements in air quality would help to prevent the 1·2 million deaths resulting from exposure to fossil fuel-derived ambient PM2·5 in 2020 alone (indicator 3.3), and a health-centred energy transition would enhance low-carbon travel and increase urban green spaces, promoting physical activity, and improving physical and mental health. In the food sector, an accelerated transition to balanced and more plant-based diets would not only help reduce the 55% of agricultural sector emissions coming from red meat and milk production (indicator 3.5.1), but also prevent up to 11·5 million diet-related deaths annually (indicator 3.5.2), and substantially reduce the risk of zoonotic diseases. These health-focused shifts would reduce the burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases, reducing the strain on overwhelmed health-care providers. Importantly, accelerating climate change adaptation would lead to more robust health systems, minimising the negative impacts of future infectious disease outbreaks and geopolitical conflicts, and restoring the first line of defence of global populations.

    EMERGING GLIMMERS OF HOPE: Despite decades of insufficient action, emerging, albeit few, signs of change provide some hope that a health-centred response might be starting to emerge. Individual engagement with the health dimensions of climate change, essential to drive and enable an accelerated response, increased from 2020 to 2021 (indicator 5.2), and coverage of health and climate change in the media reached a new record high in 2021, with a 27% increase from 2020 (indicator 5.1). This engagement is also reflected by country leaders, with a record 60% of 194 countries focusing their attention on the links between climate change and health in the 2021 UN General Debate, and with 86% of national updated or new NDCs making references to health (indicator 5.4). At the city level, local authorities are progressively identifying risks of climate change on the health of their populations (indicator 2.1.3), a first step to delivering a tailored response that strengthens local health systems. Although the health sector is responsible for 5·2% of all global emissions (indicator 3.6), it has shown impressive climate leadership, and 60 countries had committed to transitioning to climate-resilient and/or low-carbon or net-zero carbon health systems as part of the COP26 Health Programme, as of July, 2022. Signs of change are also emerging in the energy sector. Although total clean energy generation remains grossly insufficient, record high levels were reached in 2020 (indicator 3.1). Zero-carbon sources accounted for 80% of investment in electricity generation in 2021 (indicator 4.2.1), and renewable energies have reached cost parity with fossil fuel energies. As some of the highest emitting countries attempt to cut their dependence on oil and gas in response to the war in Ukraine and soaring energy prices, many are focusing on increasing renewable energy generation, raising hopes for a health-centred response. However, increased awareness and commitments should be urgently translated into action for hope to turn into reality.

    A CALL TO ACTION: After 30 years of UNFCCC negotiations, the Lancet Countdown indicators show that countries and companies continue to make choices that threaten the health and survival of people in every part of the world. As countries devise ways to recover from the coexisting crises, the evidence is unequivocal. At this critical juncture, an immediate, health-centred response can still secure a future in which world populations can not only survive, but thrive.

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