The coronavirus COVID-19 has recently started to spread rapidly in Malaysia. The number of total infected cases has increased to 3662 on 05 April 2020, leading to the country being placed under lockdown. As the main public concern is whether the current situation will continue for the next few months, this study aims to predict the epidemic peak using the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model, with incorporation of the mortality cases. The infection rate was estimated using the Genetic Algorithm (GA), while the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model was used to provide short-time forecasting of the number of infected cases. The results show that the estimated infection rate is 0.228 ± 0.013, while the basic reproductive number is 2.28 ± 0.13. The epidemic peak of COVID-19 in Malaysia could be reached on 26 July 2020, with an uncertain period of 30 days (12 July-11 August). Possible interventions by the government to reduce the infection rate by 25% over two or three months would delay the epidemic peak by 30 and 46 days, respectively. The forecasting results using the ANFIS model show a low Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) of 0.041; a low Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 2.45%; and a high coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.9964. The results also show that an intervention has a great effect on delaying the epidemic peak and a longer intervention period would reduce the epidemic size at the peak. The study provides important information for public health providers and the government to control the COVID-19 epidemic.
Anaesthesia is a multivariable problem where a combination of drugs are used to induce desired hypnotic, analgesia and immobility states. The automation of anaesthesia may improve the safety and cost-effectiveness of anaesthesia. However, the realization of a safe and reliable multivariable closed-loop control of anaesthesia is yet to be achieved due to a manifold of challenges. In this paper, several significant challenges in automation of anaesthesia are discussed, namely model uncertainty, controlled variables, closed-loop application and dependability. The increasingly reliable measurement device, robust and adaptive controller, and better fault tolerance strategy are paving the way for automation of anaesthesia.
Tissue recovery is important in preventing tissue deterioration, which is induced by pressure and may lead to pressure ulcers (PU). Reactive hyperaemia (RH) is an indicator used to identify people at risk of PU. In this study, the effect of different recovery times on RH trend is investigated during repetitive loading. Twenty-one male Sprague-Dawley rats (seven per group), with body weight of 385-485 g, were categorised into three groups and subjected to different recovery times with three repetitive loading cycles. The first, second, and third groups were subjected to short (3 min), moderate (10 min), and prolonged (40 min) recovery, respectively, while fixed loading time and pressure (10 min and 50 mmHg, respectively). Peak hyperaemia was measured in the three cycles to determine trends associated with different recovery times. Three RH trends (increasing, decreasing, and inconsistent) were observed. As the recovery time is increased (3 min vs. 10 min vs. 40 min), the number of samples with increasing RH trend decreases (57% vs. 29% vs. 14%) and the number of samples with inconsistent RH trend increases (29% vs. 57% vs. 72%). All groups consists of one sample with decreasing RH trend (14%). Results confirm that different recovery times affect the RH trend during repetitive loading. The RH trend may be used to determine the sufficient recovery time of an individual to avoid PU development.
Prenatal stress may evoke considerable physiological consequences on the developing poultry embryos and neonates. The present study aimed to determine prenatal auditory stimulation effects on serum levels of ceruloplasmin (CPN), alpha-1-acid glycoprotein (AGP), corticosterone (CORT), and heat shock protein 70 (Hsp70) regulations in developing chicken embryos and newly hatched chicks. Hatching eggs were subjected to the following auditory treatments; 1) control (no additional sound treatment other than the background sound of the incubator's compressors at 40 dB), 2) noise exposure (eggs were exposed to pre-recorded traffic noise at 90 dB) (NOISE), and 3) music exposure (eggs were exposed to Mozart's Sonata for Two Pianos in D Major, K 488 at 90 dB) (MUSIC). The NOISE and MUSIC treatments were for 20 min/h for 24 h (a total of 8 h/d), starting from embryonic days (ED) 12 to hatching. The MUSIC (1.37 ± 0.1 ng/mL) and NOISE (1.49 ± 0.2 ng/mL) treatments significantly elevated CPN at ED 15 compared to the Control (0.82 ± 0.04 ng/mL) group and post-hatch day 1 (Control, 1.86 ± 0.2 ng/mL; MUSIC, 2.84 ± 0.4 ng/mL; NOISE, 3.04 ± 0.3 ng/mL), AGP at ED 15 (Control, 39.1 ± 7.1 mg/mL; MUSIC, 85.5 ± 12.9 mg/mL; NOISE, 85.4 ± 15.1 mg/mL) and post-hatch day 1 (Control, 20.4 ± 2.2 mg/mL; MUSIC, 30.5 ± 4.7 mg/mL; NOISE, 30.3 ± 1.4 mg/mL). CORT significantly increased at ED 15 in both MUSIC (9.024 ± 1.4 ng/mL) and NOISE (12.15 ± 1.6 ng/mL) compared to the Control (4.39 ± 0.7 ng/mL) group. On the other hand, MUSIC exposed embryos had significantly higher Hsp70 expression than their Control and NOISE counterparts at ED 18 (Control, 12.9 ± 1.2 ng/mL; MUSIC, 129.6 ± 26.4 ng/mL; NOISE, 13.3 ± 2.3 ng/mL) and post-hatch day 1 (Control, 15.2 ± 1.7 ng/mL; MUSIC, 195.5 ± 68.5 ng/mL; NOISE, 13.2 ± 2.7 ng/mL). In conclusion, developing chicken embryos respond to auditory stimulation by altering CPN, AGP, CORT, and Hsp70. The alterations of these analytes could be important in developing embryos and newly hatched chicks to cope with stress attributed to auditory stimulation.
Feed restriction could induce physiological stress in broiler chickens, leading to welfare issues. Prenatal stimulation could improve stress-coping mechanisms in poultry. The present study aimed to elucidate the effects of subjecting developing embryos to auditory stimulation on physiological stress response to feed restriction in broiler chickens at market age. A total of 423 hatching eggs of Cobb 500 (Gallus domesticus) were subjected to the following auditory treatments: 1) no additional sound treatment other than the background sound of the incubator's compressors at 40 dB (CONTROL), 2) exposure to pre-recorded traffic noise at 90 dB (NOISE), and 3) exposure to Mozart's Sonata for Two Pianos in D Major, K 488 at 90 dB) (MUSIC). The NOISE and MUSIC treatments were for 20 min/h for 24 h (a total of 8 h/d), starting from embryonic days (ED) 12 to hatching. On d 42, an equal number of birds from each prenatal auditory stimulation (PAS) group were subjected to either ad libitum feeding (AL) or 30-h of feed restriction (FR) in a completely randomised design. The FR chickens exhibited significantly higher serum levels of corticosterone (CORT), and heat shock protein (HSP) 70 compared to those of AL. Prenatal auditory stimulation, particularly NOISE, led to lower serum levels of CORT and alpha-1-acid glycoprotein (AGP) levels compared to the CONTROL group. Additionally, NOISE significantly increased brain mRNA glucocorticoid receptor and HSP70 gene expression. The cecal population of E. coli and Lactobacillus spp. was not significantly affected by prenatal auditory stimulation. In conclusion, our findings suggest that prenatal auditory stimulation, particularly NOISE, positively impacts broiler chickens' ability to cope with feed restriction.