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Fulltext Selection of the gridded temperature dataset for assessment of thermal bioclimatic environmental changes in Amu Darya River basin

Salehie O, Ismail TB, Shahid S, Sammen SS, Malik A, Wang X

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess, 2022 Jan 19.
PMID: 35075345 DOI: 10.1007/s00477-022-02172-8

Assessment of the thermal bioclimatic environmental changes is important to understand ongoing climate change implications on agriculture, ecology, and human health. This is particularly important for the climatologically diverse transboundary Amy Darya River basin, a major source of water and livelihood for millions in Central Asia. However, the absence of longer period observed temperature data is a major obstacle for such analysis. This study employed a novel approach by integrating compromise programming and multicriteria group decision-making methods to evaluate the efficiency of four global gridded temperature datasets based on observation data at 44 stations. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated by comparing the results obtained using symmetrical uncertainty, a machine learning similarity assessment method. The most reliable gridded data was used to assess the spatial distribution of global warming-induced unidirectional trends in thermal bioclimatic indicators (TBI) using a modified Mann-Kendall test. Ranking of the products revealed Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature as most efficient in reconstruction observed temperature, followed by TerraClimate and Climate Research Unit. The ranking of the product was consistent with that obtained using SU. Assessment of TBI trends using CPC data revealed an increase in the Tmin in the coldest month over the whole basin at a rate of 0.03-0.08 °C per decade, except in the east. Besides, an increase in diurnal temperature range and isothermally increased in the east up to 0.2 °C and 0.6% per decade, respectively. The results revealed negative implications of thermal bioclimatic change on water, ecology, and public health in the eastern mountainous region and positive impacts on vegetation in the west and northwest.
Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00477-022-02172-8.
Thermal bioclimatic indicators over Southeast Asia: present status and future projection using CMIP6

Hamed MM, Nashwan MS, Shahid S, Ismail TB, Dewan A, Asaduzzaman M

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int, 2022 Dec;29(60):91212-91231.
PMID: 35881284 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-22036-6

Mapping potential changes in bioclimatic characteristics are critical for planning mitigation goals and climate change adaptation. Assessment of such changes is particularly important for Southeast Asia (SEA) - home to global largest ecological diversity. Twenty-three global climate models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were used in this study to evaluate changes in 11 thermal bioclimatic indicators over SEA for two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), 2-4.5 and 5-8.5. Spatial changes in the ensemble mean, 5th, and 95th percentile of each indicator for near (2020-2059) and far (2060-2099) periods were examined in order to understand temporal changes and associated uncertainty. The results indicated large spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability in projected changes of bioclimatic indicators. A higher change was projected for mainland SEA in the far future and less in maritime region during the near future. At the same time, uncertainty in the projected bioclimatic indices was higher for mainland than maritime SEA. Analysis of mean multi-model ensemble revealed a change in mean temperature ranged from - 0.71 to 3.23 °C in near and from 0.00 to 4.07 °C in far futures. The diurnal temperature range was projected to reduce over most of SEA (ranging from - 1.1 to - 2.0 °C), while isothermality is likely to decrease from - 1.1 to - 4.6%. A decrease in isothermality along with narrowing of seasonality indicated a possible shift in climate, particularly in the north of mainland SEA. Maximum temperature in the warmest month/quarter was projected to increase a little more than the coldest month/quarter and the mean temperature in the driest month to increase more than the wettest month. This would cause an increase in the annual temperature range in the future.
Filling of the resultant cavity after curettage of benign bone tumours is still controversial

Ismail TB, Mahmoud MM, Ahmed OE, Bola AH, Bahaa ZH

Med J Malaysia, 2023 Mar;78(2):163-170.
PMID: 36988525

INTRODUCTION: Benign bone tumours occur most commonly during the first through third decades of life and often weaken the bones, which may predispose them to pathological fractures. Great diversity and debate in the management of primary bone tumours are based on the tumour extent. There has been an increasing trend toward the intra-operative filling of these lesions. We hypothesised that in some benign bone tumours, filling the resulting cavity after curettage was unnecessary. This study was carried out to determine whether it is necessary to fill the resultant cavity after the curettage of benign bone tumours and to represent various fillers.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective study of patients diagnosed as benign bone tumours according to the Enneking classification who underwent simple or extended curettage at Menoufia university-Orthopedic Oncology Division (with or without grafting or filling) during the surgical treatment (Jan 2015 to Feb 2020). A review of the medical records was done. Lesions' size (length, width and depth) was measured on plain radiographs using the image j program. When applicable, degrees of filling of the resultant cavity were classified into four categories, according to Modified Neer's classification. Functional evaluation using the musculoskeletal tumour society (MSTS) score was reviewed.
RESULTS: Overall, 88 patients diagnosed with a primary bone tumour and who received the surgical intervention were included in the study. The mean age of the patients was 22.61+13.497 (3-58) years. There were 48 males and 40 females (54 right and 34 left). The mean follow-up period was 28.09+16.13 months. The most common location was the distal femur in 15 patients, the proximal femur in 10 patients and the proximal tibia in 12 patients. The most common diagnosis was giant cell tumour in 20 patients, followed by UBC in 19 patients, ABC in 15 patients and enchondroma in 13 patients. Twenty-three patients had simple curettage, while 65 patients had extended curettage. Mean MSTS was 28.78±1.68. Fifty-five lesions were classified according to modified Neer's classification.Thirtty-two patients were classified as type 1 with complete healing,22 patient was classified as type 2 with partial healing, and only one was classified as a recurrent lesion. Seven patients (7.9%) developed local recurrences.
CONCLUSION: Filling the resulting cavity after the removal of the pathological tissues is usually necessary but not always required. This is determined by the type of lesion and the size of the resulting cavity following curettage. Individualised surgery is required; additional fixation should be considered.

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