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The COVID-19 pandemic and speculation in energy, precious metals, and agricultural futures

Sifat I, Ghafoor A, Ah Mand A

J Behav Exp Finance, 2021 Jun;30:100498.
PMID: 36570102 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2021.100498

We report new evidence that speculation in energy and precious metal futures are more prevalent in crisis periods and even more so during the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, agricultural futures attract more hedging pressure. Post-GFC patterns mirror the 1980s' recessions. Using quantile regression on a long-horizon sample we also find that speculative pressure generally coincides with abnormal returns in normal circumstances but not in the current pandemic. Instead, volatility is strongly and often non-linearly associated with speculation across instruments.
Effectiveness of bedaquiline containing all oral longer regimens in treating multidrug/rifampicin resistant tuberculosis in Pakistan

Khan A, Khan AH, Ahmad N, Ghafoor A

J Infect Public Health, 2024 Aug 14;17(9):102522.
PMID: 39173557 DOI: 10.1016/j.jiph.2024.102522

BACKGROUND: Despite the introduction of bedaquiline (Bdq) containing all-oral regimens for treating patients with rifampicin resistant/multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR/RR-TB) in 2019, data on its effectiveness in Pakistan, which has the fifth highest MDR-TB burden, is lacking. This study evaluates treatment outcomes and identifies factors associated with unsuccessful outcomes among MDR/RR-TB patients treated with an all-oral longer treatment regimen (LTR).
METHODS: This retrospective record review included all microbiologically confirmed pulmonary MDR/RR-TB patients treated with an all-oral LTR between August 2019 and February 2021 across nine PMDT centres in Pakistan. Sociodemographic and clinical data were retrieved from the Electronic Nominal Recording and Reporting System. Treatment outcomes, defined by WHO criteria, were analysed using SPSS and multivariate binary logistic regression to identify factors associated with unsuccessful outcomes. A p-value 5 drugs (OR:3.12, 95 %CI:1.36-11.64, p = 0.013) were significantly associated with death and treatment failure. Whereas, lung cavitation had statistically significant association with LTFU (OR:2.66, 95 %CI:1.10-7.32, p = 0.045).
CONCLUSION: Treatment success rate (70.3 %) in this study fell below the WHO recommended target success rate (>90 %). Enhanced clinical management, coupled with special attention to patients exhibiting identified risk factors could improve treatment outcomes.
Fulltext Treatment Outcomes of Extensively Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Pakistan: A Countrywide Retrospective Record Review

Abubakar M, Ahmad N, Ghafoor A, Latif A, Ahmad I, Atif M, et al.

Front Pharmacol, 2021;12:640555.
PMID: 33867989 DOI: 10.3389/fphar.2021.640555

Background: The current study is conducted with the aim to the fill the gap of information regarding treatment outcomes and variables associated with unsuccessful outcome among XDR-TB patients from Pakistan. Methods: A total of 404 culture confirmed XDR-TB patients who received treatment between 1st May 2010 and June 30, 2017 at 27 treatment centers all over Pakistan were retrospectively followed until their treatment outcomes were reported. A p-value <0.05 reflected a statistical significant association. Results: The patients had a mean age 32.9 ± 14.1 years. The overall treatment success rate was 40.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]:35.80-45.60%). A total of 155 (38.4%) patients were declared cured, 9 (2.2%) completed treatment, 149 (36.9%) died, 60 (14.9%) failed treatment and 31 (7.7%) were lost to follow up (LTFU). The results of the multivariate binary logistic regression analysis revealed that the patients' age of >60 years (OR = 4.69, 95%CI:1.57-15.57) and receiving high dose isoniazid (OR = 2.36, 95%CI:1.14-4.85) had statistically significant positive association with death, whereas baseline body weight >40 kg (OR = 0.43, 95%CI:0.25-0.73) and sputum culture conversion in the initial two months of treatment (OR = 0.33, 95%CI:0.19-0.58) had statistically significant negative association with death. Moreover, male gender had statistically significant positive association (OR = 1.92, 95%CI:1.04-3.54) with LTFU. Conclusion: The treatment success rate (40.6%) of XDR-TB patients in Pakistan was poor. Providing special attention and enhanced clinical management to patients with identified risk factors for death and LTFU in the current cohort may improve the treatment outcomes.
Fulltext Multigene phylogeny and morphological descriptions of five species of Agaricus sect. Minores from subtropical climate zones of Pakistan

Bashir H, Asif M, Ghafoor A, Niazi AR, Khalid AN, Parveen G, et al.

PLoS One, 2024;19(7):e0302222.
PMID: 38990811 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0302222

The genus Agaricus includes more than 500 species mostly containing the edible and cultivated species worldwide. As part of the ongoing studies on the biodiversity of genus Agaricus in Pakistan, our objective was to focus on A. sect. Minores which is the largest section of the genus. In the first phylogenetic analyses based on the ITS region of the nuclear ribosomal DNA, our sample included specimens of 97 named species, 27 unnamed species, and 31 specimens (29 newly generated sequences in this study) from subtropical climate zones of Pakistan that likely belong to this section based on their morphology. The 31 specimens grouped into five distinct, well-supported clades corresponding to five species: A. glabriusculus already known from Pakistan and India, A. robustulus first recorded from Pakistan and briefly described here but already known from Bénin, Malaysia, China, and Thailand, and three possibly endemic new species described in detail A. badiosquamulosus sp. nov., A. dunensis sp. nov., and A. violaceopunctatus sp. nov. The sixth species currently known in Pakistan, including A. latiumbonatus also found in Thailand, were included in a multigene tree based on ITS, LSU, and Tef-1α sequence data. They all belong to a large pantropical paraphyletic group while most temperate species belong to a distinct clade, which includes about half of the species of the section. The current study aims to propose three novel species of genus Agaricus based on comprehensive morphological as well as molecular phylogenetic evidences from Pakistan.
Pattern of first- and second-line drug resistance among pulmonary tuberculosis retreatment cases in Pakistan

Javaid A, Hasan R, Zafar A, Chaudry MA, Qayyum S, Qadeer E, et al.

Int J Tuberc Lung Dis, 2017 03 01;21(3):303-308.
PMID: 28225340 DOI: 10.5588/ijtld.16.0444

BACKGROUND: Drug resistance in general, and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) in particular, threatens global tuberculosis (TB) control efforts. Population-based estimates of drug resistance are needed to develop strategies for controlling drug-resistant TB in Pakistan.
OBJECTIVE: To obtain population-based data on Mycobacterium tuberculosis drug resistance in Pakistan.
METHODS: To obtain drug resistance data, we conducted a population-based study of TB cases in all provinces of Pakistan. We performed culture and drug susceptibility testing on M. tuberculosis isolates from patients with a prior history of anti-tuberculosis treatment (retreatment cases) from all over the country.
RESULTS: Of 544 isolates from previously treated cases, 289 (53.1%) were susceptible to all first-line drugs, 255 (46.9%) were resistant to at least one anti-tuberculosis drug and 132 (24.3%) were MDR-TB. Among MDR-TB isolates, 47.0% were ofloxacin (OFX) resistant. Extensively drug-resistant TB was found in two (0.4%) isolates.
CONCLUSION: Prevalence of drug resistance in retreatment isolates was high. The alarmingly high prevalence of OFX resistance among MDR-TB isolates may threaten the success of efforts to control and treat MDR-TB.