Agriculture, meteorological, and hydrological drought is a natural hazard which affects ecosystems in the central India of Maharashtra state. Due to limited historical data for drought monitoring and forecasting available in the central India of Maharashtra state, implementing machine learning (ML) algorithms could allow for the prediction of future drought events. In this paper, we have focused on the prediction accuracy of meteorological drought in the semi-arid region based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) using the random forest (RF), random tree (RT), and Gaussian process regression (GPR-PUK kernel) models. A different combination of machine learning models and variables has been performed for the forecasting of metrological drought based on the SPI-6 and 12 months. Models were developed using monthly rainfall data for the period of 2000-2019 at two meteorological stations, namely, Karanjali and Gangawdi, each representing a geographical region of Upper Godavari river basin area in the central India of Maharashtra state which frequently experiences droughts. Historical data from the SPI from 2000 to 2013 was processed to train the model into machine learning model, and the rest of the 2014 to 2019-year data were used for testing to forecast the SPI and metrological drought. The mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), adjusted R2, Mallows' (Cp), Akaike's (AIC), Schwarz's (SBC), and Amemiya's PC were used to identify the best combination input model and best subregression analysis for both stations of SPI-6 and 12. The correlation coefficient ([Formula: see text]), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), relative absolute error (RAE), and root relative squared error (RRSE) were used to perform evaluation for SPI-6 and 12 months of both stations with RF, RT, and GPR-PUK kernel models during the training and testing scenarios. The results during testing phase revealed that the RF was found as the best model in forecasting droughts with values of [Formula: see text], MAE, RMSE, RAE (%), and RRSE (%) being 0.856, 0.551, 0.718, 74.778, and 54.019, respectively, for SPI-6 while 0.961, 0.361, 0.538, 34.926, and 28.262, respectively, for SPI-12 scales at Gangawdi station. Further, the respective values of evaluators at Karanjali station were 0.913 and 0.966, 0.541 and 0.386, 0.604 and 0.589, 52.592 and 36.959, and 42.315 and 31.394 for PUK kernel and RT models, respectively, during SPI-6 and SPI-12. Machine learning models are potential drought warning techniques because they take less time, have fewer inputs, and are less sophisticated than dynamic or scientific models.
Liquefaction is a devastating consequence of earthquakes that occurs in loose, saturated soil deposits, resulting in catastrophic ground failure. Accurate prediction of such geotechnical parameter is crucial for mitigating hazards, assessing risks, and advancing geotechnical engineering. This study introduces a novel predictive model that combines Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) with Dingo Optimization Algorithm (DOA) to estimate strain energy-based liquefaction resistance. The hybrid model (ELM-DOA) is compared with the classical ELM, Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System with Fuzzy C-Means (ANFIS-FCM model), and Sub-clustering (ANFIS-Sub model). Also, two data pre-processing scenarios are employed, namely traditional linear and non-linear normalization. The results demonstrate that non-linear normalization significantly enhances the prediction performance of all models by approximately 25% compared to linear normalization. Furthermore, the ELM-DOA model achieves the most accurate predictions, exhibiting the lowest root mean square error (484.286 J/m3), mean absolute percentage error (24.900%), mean absolute error (404.416 J/m3), and the highest correlation of determination (0.935). Additionally, a Graphical User Interface (GUI) has been developed, specifically tailored for the ELM-DOA model, to assist engineers and researchers in maximizing the utilization of this predictive model. The GUI provides a user-friendly platform for easy input of data and accessing the model's predictions, enhancing its practical applicability. Overall, the results strongly support the proposed hybrid model with GUI serving as an effective tool for assessing soil liquefaction resistance in geotechnical engineering, aiding in predicting and mitigating liquefaction hazards.
The rapid advancement of global economic integration and urbanization has severely damaged the stability of the ecological environment and hindered the ecological carbon sink capacity. In this study, we evaluated the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of landscape ecological risk (LER) in the Loess Plateau from 2010 to 2020. This was examined under the driving mechanism of human and natural dual factors. We combined the random forest algorithm with the Markov chain to jointly simulate and predict the development trend of LER in 2030. From 2010 to 2020, LER on the Loess Plateau showed a distribution pattern with higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest. Under the interaction of human and natural factors, annual precipitation exerted the strongest constraint on LER. The driving of land use and natural factors significantly influenced the spatial differentiation of the LER, with a q-value >0.30. In all three projected scenarios for 2030, there was an increase in construction land area and a significant reduction in cultivated land area. The urban development scenario showed the greatest expansion of high-risk areas, with a 5.29 % increase. Conversely, the ecological protection scenario showed a 1.53 % increase in high-risk areas. The findings have provided a reference for ecological risk prevention and control, and sustainable development of the ecological environment in arid regions.