METHODS: The data was collected in training and matches of a professional adult male soccer team during three complete seasons (2020/21-2022/2023). The sample included 6 different HCs (48.8 ± 7.4 years of age; 11.2 ± 3.9 years as a HC). The 4 weeks and 4 games before and after the replacement of HCs were analysed. External load variables were collected with Global Positioning System (GPS) devices. A logistic regression (LR) model was developed to classify the HCs' retention or dismissal. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to determine the specific locomotive variables that could predict the likelihood of HC retention or dismissal.

RESULTS: In competition, locomotor performance was better under the dismissed HCs, whereas the new HC had better values during training. The LR model demonstrated a good prediction accuracy of 80% with a recall and precision of 85% and 78%, respectively, amongst other model performance indicators. Meters per minute in games was the only significant variable that could serve as a potential physical marker to signal performance decline and predict the potential dismissal of an HC with an odd ratio of 32.4%.