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Associations of fats and carbohydrate intake with cardiovascular disease and mortality in 18 countries from five continents (PURE): a prospective cohort study

Dehghan M, Mente A, Zhang X, Swaminathan S, Li W, Mohan V, et al.

Lancet, 2017 Nov 04;390(10107):2050-2062.
PMID: 28864332 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32252-3

BACKGROUND: The relationship between macronutrients and cardiovascular disease and mortality is controversial. Most available data are from European and North American populations where nutrition excess is more likely, so their applicability to other populations is unclear.
METHODS: The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large, epidemiological cohort study of individuals aged 35-70 years (enrolled between Jan 1, 2003, and March 31, 2013) in 18 countries with a median follow-up of 7·4 years (IQR 5·3-9·3). Dietary intake of 135 335 individuals was recorded using validated food frequency questionnaires. The primary outcomes were total mortality and major cardiovascular events (fatal cardiovascular disease, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure). Secondary outcomes were all myocardial infarctions, stroke, cardiovascular disease mortality, and non-cardiovascular disease mortality. Participants were categorised into quintiles of nutrient intake (carbohydrate, fats, and protein) based on percentage of energy provided by nutrients. We assessed the associations between consumption of carbohydrate, total fat, and each type of fat with cardiovascular disease and total mortality. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) using a multivariable Cox frailty model with random intercepts to account for centre clustering.
FINDINGS: During follow-up, we documented 5796 deaths and 4784 major cardiovascular disease events. Higher carbohydrate intake was associated with an increased risk of total mortality (highest [quintile 5] vs lowest quintile [quintile 1] category, HR 1·28 [95% CI 1·12-1·46], ptrend=0·0001) but not with the risk of cardiovascular disease or cardiovascular disease mortality. Intake of total fat and each type of fat was associated with lower risk of total mortality (quintile 5 vs quintile 1, total fat: HR 0·77 [95% CI 0·67-0·87], ptrend<0·0001; saturated fat, HR 0·86 [0·76-0·99], ptrend=0·0088; monounsaturated fat: HR 0·81 [0·71-0·92], ptrend<0·0001; and polyunsaturated fat: HR 0·80 [0·71-0·89], ptrend<0·0001). Higher saturated fat intake was associated with lower risk of stroke (quintile 5 vs quintile 1, HR 0·79 [95% CI 0·64-0·98], ptrend=0·0498). Total fat and saturated and unsaturated fats were not significantly associated with risk of myocardial infarction or cardiovascular disease mortality.
INTERPRETATION: High carbohydrate intake was associated with higher risk of total mortality, whereas total fat and individual types of fat were related to lower total mortality. Total fat and types of fat were not associated with cardiovascular disease, myocardial infarction, or cardiovascular disease mortality, whereas saturated fat had an inverse association with stroke. Global dietary guidelines should be reconsidered in light of these findings.
FUNDING: Full funding sources listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).
Fulltext Fruit, vegetable, and legume intake, and cardiovascular disease and deaths in 18 countries (PURE): a prospective cohort study

Miller V, Mente A, Dehghan M, Rangarajan S, Zhang X, Swaminathan S, et al.

Lancet, 2017 Nov 04;390(10107):2037-2049.
PMID: 28864331 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32253-5

BACKGROUND: The association between intake of fruits, vegetables, and legumes with cardiovascular disease and deaths has been investigated extensively in Europe, the USA, Japan, and China, but little or no data are available from the Middle East, South America, Africa, or south Asia.
METHODS: We did a prospective cohort study (Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology [PURE] in 135 335 individuals aged 35 to 70 years without cardiovascular disease from 613 communities in 18 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries in seven geographical regions: North America and Europe, South America, the Middle East, south Asia, China, southeast Asia, and Africa. We documented their diet using country-specific food frequency questionnaires at baseline. Standardised questionnaires were used to collect information about demographic factors, socioeconomic status (education, income, and employment), lifestyle (smoking, physical activity, and alcohol intake), health history and medication use, and family history of cardiovascular disease. The follow-up period varied based on the date when recruitment began at each site or country. The main clinical outcomes were major cardiovascular disease (defined as death from cardiovascular causes and non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure), fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, fatal and non-fatal strokes, cardiovascular mortality, non-cardiovascular mortality, and total mortality. Cox frailty models with random effects were used to assess associations between fruit, vegetable, and legume consumption with risk of cardiovascular disease events and mortality.
FINDINGS: Participants were enrolled into the study between Jan 1, 2003, and March 31, 2013. For the current analysis, we included all unrefuted outcome events in the PURE study database through March 31, 2017. Overall, combined mean fruit, vegetable and legume intake was 3·91 (SD 2·77) servings per day. During a median 7·4 years (5·5-9·3) of follow-up, 4784 major cardiovascular disease events, 1649 cardiovascular deaths, and 5796 total deaths were documented. Higher total fruit, vegetable, and legume intake was inversely associated with major cardiovascular disease, myocardial infarction, cardiovascular mortality, non-cardiovascular mortality, and total mortality in the models adjusted for age, sex, and centre (random effect). The estimates were substantially attenuated in the multivariable adjusted models for major cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio [HR] 0·90, 95% CI 0·74-1·10, ptrend=0·1301), myocardial infarction (0·99, 0·74-1·31; ptrend=0·2033), stroke (0·92, 0·67-1·25; ptrend=0·7092), cardiovascular mortality (0·73, 0·53-1·02; ptrend=0·0568), non-cardiovascular mortality (0·84, 0·68-1·04; ptrend =0·0038), and total mortality (0·81, 0·68-0·96; ptrend<0·0001). The HR for total mortality was lowest for three to four servings per day (0·78, 95% CI 0·69-0·88) compared with the reference group, with no further apparent decrease in HR with higher consumption. When examined separately, fruit intake was associated with lower risk of cardiovascular, non-cardiovascular, and total mortality, while legume intake was inversely associated with non-cardiovascular death and total mortality (in fully adjusted models). For vegetables, raw vegetable intake was strongly associated with a lower risk of total mortality, whereas cooked vegetable intake showed a modest benefit against mortality.
INTERPRETATION: Higher fruit, vegetable, and legume consumption was associated with a lower risk of non-cardiovascular, and total mortality. Benefits appear to be maximum for both non-cardiovascular mortality and total mortality at three to four servings per day (equivalent to 375-500 g/day).
FUNDING: Full funding sources listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).
Ethnic cleansing in Myanmar: the Rohingya crisis and human rights

Beyrer C, Kamarulzaman A

Lancet, 2017 Sep 30;390(10102):1570-1573.
PMID: 28943266 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32519-9
Fulltext Universal health coverage and intersectoral action for health: key messages from Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition

Jamison DT, Alwan A, Mock CN, Nugent R, Watkins D, Adeyi O, et al.

Lancet, 2018 03 17;391(10125):1108-1120.
PMID: 29179954 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32906-9

The World Bank is publishing nine volumes of Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition (DCP3) between 2015 and 2018. Volume 9, Improving Health and Reducing Poverty, summarises the main messages from all the volumes and contains cross-cutting analyses. This Review draws on all nine volumes to convey conclusions. The analysis in DCP3 is built around 21 essential packages that were developed in the nine volumes. Each essential package addresses the concerns of a major professional community (eg, child health or surgery) and contains a mix of intersectoral policies and health-sector interventions. 71 intersectoral prevention policies were identified in total, 29 of which are priorities for early introduction. Interventions within the health sector were grouped onto five platforms (population based, community level, health centre, first-level hospital, and referral hospital). DCP3 defines a model concept of essential universal health coverage (EUHC) with 218 interventions that provides a starting point for country-specific analysis of priorities. Assuming steady-state implementation by 2030, EUHC in lower-middle-income countries would reduce premature deaths by an estimated 4·2 million per year. Estimated total costs prove substantial: about 9·1% of (current) gross national income (GNI) in low-income countries and 5·2% of GNI in lower-middle-income countries. Financing provision of continuing intervention against chronic conditions accounts for about half of estimated incremental costs. For lower-middle-income countries, the mortality reduction from implementing the EUHC can only reach about half the mortality reduction in non-communicable diseases called for by the Sustainable Development Goals. Full achievement will require increased investment or sustained intersectoral action, and actions by finance ministries to tax smoking and polluting emissions and to reduce or eliminate (often large) subsidies on fossil fuels appear of central importance. DCP3 is intended to be a model starting point for analyses at the country level, but country-specific cost structures, epidemiological needs, and national priorities will generally lead to definitions of EUHC that differ from country to country and from the model in this Review. DCP3 is particularly relevant as achievement of EUHC relies increasingly on greater domestic finance, with global developmental assistance in health focusing more on global public goods. In addition to assessing effects on mortality, DCP3 looked at outcomes of EUHC not encompassed by the disability-adjusted life-year metric and related cost-effectiveness analyses. The other objectives included financial protection (potentially better provided upstream by keeping people out of the hospital rather than downstream by paying their hospital bills for them), stillbirths averted, palliative care, contraception, and child physical and intellectual growth. The first 1000 days after conception are highly important for child development, but the next 7000 days are likewise important and often neglected.
Rivaroxaban with or without aspirin in patients with stable coronary artery disease: an international, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Connolly SJ, Eikelboom JW, Bosch J, Dagenais G, Dyal L, Lanas F, et al.

Lancet, 2018 01 20;391(10117):205-218.
PMID: 29132879 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32458-3

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery disease is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and is a consequence of acute thrombotic events involving activation of platelets and coagulation proteins. Factor Xa inhibitors and aspirin each reduce thrombotic events but have not yet been tested in combination or against each other in patients with stable coronary artery disease.

METHODS: In this multicentre, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, outpatient trial, patients with stable coronary artery disease or peripheral artery disease were recruited at 602 hospitals, clinics, or community centres in 33 countries. This paper reports on patients with coronary artery disease. Eligible patients with coronary artery disease had to have had a myocardial infarction in the past 20 years, multi-vessel coronary artery disease, history of stable or unstable angina, previous multi-vessel percutaneous coronary intervention, or previous multi-vessel coronary artery bypass graft surgery. After a 30-day run in period, patients were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to receive rivaroxaban (2·5 mg orally twice a day) plus aspirin (100 mg once a day), rivaroxaban alone (5 mg orally twice a day), or aspirin alone (100 mg orally once a day). Randomisation was computer generated. Each treatment group was double dummy, and the patients, investigators, and central study staff were masked to treatment allocation. The primary outcome of the COMPASS trial was the occurrence of myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01776424, and is closed to new participants.

FINDINGS: Between March 12, 2013, and May 10, 2016, 27 395 patients were enrolled to the COMPASS trial, of whom 24 824 patients had stable coronary artery disease from 558 centres. The combination of rivaroxaban plus aspirin reduced the primary outcome more than aspirin alone (347 [4%] of 8313 vs 460 [6%] of 8261; hazard ratio [HR] 0·74, 95% CI 0·65-0·86, p<0·0001). By comparison, treatment with rivaroxaban alone did not significantly improve the primary outcome when compared with treatment with aspirin alone (411 [5%] of 8250 vs 460 [6%] of 8261; HR 0·89, 95% CI 0·78-1·02, p=0·094). Combined rivaroxaban plus aspirin treatment resulted in more major bleeds than treatment with aspirin alone (263 [3%] of 8313 vs 158 [2%] of 8261; HR 1·66, 95% CI 1·37-2·03, p<0·0001), and similarly, more bleeds were seen in the rivaroxaban alone group than in the aspirin alone group (236 [3%] of 8250 vs 158 [2%] of 8261; HR 1·51, 95% CI 1·23-1·84, p<0·0001). The most common site of major bleeding was gastrointestinal, occurring in 130 [2%] patients who received combined rivaroxaban plus aspirin, in 84 [1%] patients who received rivaroxaban alone, and in 61 [1%] patients who received aspirin alone. Rivaroxaban plus aspirin reduced mortality when compared with aspirin alone (262 [3%] of 8313 vs 339 [4%] of 8261; HR 0·77, 95% CI 0·65-0·90, p=0·0012).

INTERPRETATION: In patients with stable coronary artery disease, addition of rivaroxaban to aspirin lowered major vascular events, but increased major bleeding. There was no significant increase in intracranial bleeding or other critical organ bleeding. There was also a significant net benefit in favour of rivaroxaban plus aspirin and deaths were reduced by 23%. Thus, addition of rivaroxaban to aspirin has the potential to substantially reduce morbidity and mortality from coronary artery disease worldwide.

FUNDING: Bayer AG.
Fulltext The global burden of viral hepatitis from 1990 to 2013: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Stanaway JD, Flaxman AD, Naghavi M, Fitzmaurice C, Vos T, Abubakar I, et al.

Lancet, 2016 Sep 10;388(10049):1081-1088.
PMID: 27394647 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30579-7

BACKGROUND: With recent improvements in vaccines and treatments against viral hepatitis, an improved understanding of the burden of viral hepatitis is needed to inform global intervention strategies. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study to estimate morbidity and mortality for acute viral hepatitis, and for cirrhosis and liver cancer caused by viral hepatitis, by age, sex, and country from 1990 to 2013.
METHODS: We estimated mortality using natural history models for acute hepatitis infections and GBD's cause-of-death ensemble model for cirrhosis and liver cancer. We used meta-regression to estimate total cirrhosis and total liver cancer prevalence, as well as the proportion of cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to each cause. We then estimated cause-specific prevalence as the product of the total prevalence and the proportion attributable to a specific cause. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs).
FINDINGS: Between 1990 and 2013, global viral hepatitis deaths increased from 0·89 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·86-0·94) to 1·45 million (1·38-1·54); YLLs from 31·0 million (29·6-32·6) to 41·6 million (39·1-44·7); YLDs from 0·65 million (0·45-0·89) to 0·87 million (0·61-1·18); and DALYs from 31·7 million (30·2-33·3) to 42·5 million (39·9-45·6). In 2013, viral hepatitis was the seventh (95% UI seventh to eighth) leading cause of death worldwide, compared with tenth (tenth to 12th) in 1990.
INTERPRETATION: Viral hepatitis is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Unlike most communicable diseases, the absolute burden and relative rank of viral hepatitis increased between 1990 and 2013. The enormous health loss attributable to viral hepatitis, and the availability of effective vaccines and treatments, suggests an important opportunity to improve public health.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Malaysia: a refugee conundrum

Bemma A

Lancet, 2018 01 13;391(10116):107-108.
PMID: 29353607 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)30052-7
Delivering modern, high-quality, affordable pathology and laboratory medicine to low-income and middle-income countries: a call to action

Horton S, Sullivan R, Flanigan J, Fleming KA, Kuti MA, Looi LM, et al.

Lancet, 2018 05 12;391(10133):1953-1964.
PMID: 29550030 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)30460-4

Modern, affordable pathology and laboratory medicine (PALM) systems are essential to achieve the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals for health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this last in a Series of three papers about PALM in LMICs, we discuss the policy environment and emphasise three crucial high-level actions that are needed to deliver universal health coverage. First, nations need national strategic laboratory plans; second, these plans require adequate financing for implementation; and last, pathologists themselves need to take on leadership roles to advocate for the centrality of PALM to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals for health. The national strategic laboratory plan should deliver a tiered, networked laboratory system as a central element. Appropriate financing should be provided, at a level of at least 4% of health expenditure. Financing of new technologies such as molecular diagnostics is challenging for LMICs, even though many of these tests are cost-effective. Point-of-care testing can substantially reduce test-reporting time, but this benefit must be balanced with higher costs. Our research analysis highlights a considerable deficiency in advocacy for PALM; pathologists have been invisible in national and international health discourse and leadership. Embedding PALM in LMICs can only be achieved if pathologists advocate for these services, and undertake leadership roles, both nationally and internationally. We articulate eight key recommendations to address the current barriers identified in this Series and issue a call to action for all stakeholders to come together in a global alliance to ensure the effective provision of PALM services in resource-limited settings.
Access to pathology and laboratory medicine services: a crucial gap

Wilson ML, Fleming KA, Kuti MA, Looi LM, Lago N, Ru K

Lancet, 2018 05 12;391(10133):1927-1938.
PMID: 29550029 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)30458-6

As global efforts accelerate to implement the Sustainable Development Goals and, in particular, universal health coverage, access to high-quality and timely pathology and laboratory medicine (PALM) services will be needed to support health-care systems that are tasked with achieving these goals. This access will be most challenging to achieve in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), which have a disproportionately large share of the global burden of disease but a disproportionately low share of global health-care resources, particularly PALM services. In this first in a Series of three papers on PALM in LMICs, we describe the crucial and central roles of PALM services in the accurate diagnosis and detection of disease, informing prognosis and guiding treatment, contributing to disease screening, public health surveillance and disease registries, and supporting medical-legal systems. We also describe how, even though data are sparse, these services are of both insufficient scope and inadequate quality to play their key role in health-care systems in LMICs. Lastly, we identify four key barriers to the provision of optimal PALM services in resource-limited settings: insufficient human resources or workforce capacity, inadequate education and training, inadequate infrastructure, and insufficient quality, standards, and accreditation.
Improving pathology and laboratory medicine in low-income and middle-income countries: roadmap to solutions

Sayed S, Cherniak W, Lawler M, Tan SY, El Sadr W, Wolf N, et al.

Lancet, 2018 05 12;391(10133):1939-1952.
PMID: 29550027 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)30459-8

Insufficient awareness of the centrality of pathology and laboratory medicine (PALM) to a functioning health-care system at policy and governmental level, with the resultant inadequate investment, has meant that efforts to enhance PALM in low-income and middle-income countries have been local, fragmented, and mostly unsustainable. Responding to the four major barriers in PALM service delivery that were identified in the first paper of this Series (workforce, infrastructure, education and training, and quality assurance), this second paper identifies potential solutions that can be applied in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Increasing and retaining a quality PALM workforce requires access to mentorship and continuing professional development, task sharing, and the development of short-term visitor programmes. Opportunities to enhance the training of pathologists and allied PALM personnel by increasing and improving education provision must be explored and implemented. PALM infrastructure must be strengthened by addressing supply chain barriers, and ensuring laboratory information systems are in place. New technologies, including telepathology and point-of-care testing, can have a substantial role in PALM service delivery, if used appropriately. We emphasise the crucial importance of maintaining PALM quality and posit that all laboratories in LMICs should participate in quality assurance and accreditation programmes. A potential role for public-private partnerships in filling PALM services gaps should also be investigated. Finally, to deliver these solutions and ensure equitable access to essential services in LMICs, we propose a PALM package focused on these countries, integrated within a nationally tiered laboratory system, as part of an overarching national laboratory strategic plan.
Fulltext COVID-19: the turning point for gender equality

Fisseha S, Sen G, Ghebreyesus TA, Byanyima W, Diniz D, Fore HH, et al.

Lancet, 2021 Aug 07;398(10299):471-474.
PMID: 34280381 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01651-2
Fulltext Sex-disaggregated data in COVID-19 vaccine trials

Vijayasingham L, Bischof E, Wolfe J, Gender and COVID-19 Research Agenda-setting Initiative

Lancet, 2021 Mar 13;397(10278):966-967.
PMID: 33684351 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00384-6
The need for metrics to measure progress on racial equity in global public health and medicine

Khan MS, Guinto RR, Boro E, Rahman-Shepherd A, Erondu NA

Lancet, 2022 Dec 10;400(10368):2019-2021.
PMID: 36502829 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)02464-3
Fulltext Shifting gender barriers in immunisation in the COVID-19 pandemic response and beyond

Nassiri-Ansari T, Atuhebwe P, Ayisi AS, Goulding S, Johri M, Allotey P, et al.

Lancet, 2022 Jul 02;400(10345):24.
PMID: 35780789 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01189-8
Fulltext Financing the future of WHO

Gostin LO, Klock KA, Clark H, Diop FZ, Jayasuriya D, Mahmood J, et al.

Lancet, 2022 Apr 16;399(10334):1445-1447.
PMID: 35338858 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00533-5
Fulltext Science, not speculation, is essential to determine how SARS-CoV-2 reached humans

Calisher CH, Carroll D, Colwell R, Corley RB, Daszak P, Drosten C, et al.

Lancet, 2021 Jul 17;398(10296):209-211.
PMID: 34237296 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01419-7
Fulltext Pandemic response requires early and robust verification

Lehtimaki S, Allotey P, Schwalbe N

Lancet, 2021 Jul 10;398(10295):115.
PMID: 34181879 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01223-X
Fulltext An appeal for an objective, open, and transparent scientific debate about the origin of SARS-CoV-2 - Authors' reply

Keusch GT, Lam SK, Mackenzie JS, Saif L, Turner M

Lancet, 2021 Oct 16;398(10309):1404-1405.
PMID: 34543607 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02013-4
Fulltext The Lancet Commission on diagnostics: transforming access to diagnostics

Fleming KA, Horton S, Wilson ML, Atun R, DeStigter K, Flanigan J, et al.

Lancet, 2021 Nov 27;398(10315):1997-2050.
PMID: 34626542 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00673-5
Fulltext Breastfeeding: crucially important, but increasingly challenged in a market-driven world

Pérez-Escamilla R, Tomori C, Hernández-Cordero S, Baker P, Barros AJD, Bégin F, et al.

Lancet, 2023 Feb 11;401(10375):472-485.
PMID: 36764313 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01932-8

In this Series paper, we examine how mother and baby attributes at the individual level interact with breastfeeding determinants at other levels, how these interactions drive breastfeeding outcomes, and what policies and interventions are necessary to achieve optimal breastfeeding. About one in three neonates in low-income and middle-income countries receive prelacteal feeds, and only one in two neonates are put to the breast within the first hour of life. Prelacteal feeds are strongly associated with delayed initiation of breastfeeding. Self-reported insufficient milk continues to be one of the most common reasons for introducing commercial milk formula (CMF) and stopping breastfeeding. Parents and health professionals frequently misinterpret typical, unsettled baby behaviours as signs of milk insufficiency or inadequacy. In our market-driven world and in violation of the WHO International Code for Marketing of Breast-milk Substitutes, the CMF industry exploits concerns of parents about these behaviours with unfounded product claims and advertising messages. A synthesis of reviews between 2016 and 2021 and country-based case studies indicate that breastfeeding practices at a population level can be improved rapidly through multilevel and multicomponent interventions across the socioecological model and settings. Breastfeeding is not the sole responsibility of women and requires collective societal approaches that take gender inequities into consideration.

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