METHODS: The Prospective Urban-Rural Epidemiology study is a large, longitudinal population study done in 21 countries of varying incomes and sociocultural settings. We enrolled an unbiased sample of households, which were eligible if at least one household member was aged 35-70 years. Height was measured in a standardized manner, without shoes, to the nearest 0.1 cm. During a median follow-up of 10.1 years (interquartile range 8.3-12.0), we assessed the risk of all-cause mortality, major cardiovascular events and cancer.
RESULTS: A total of 154 610 participants, enrolled since January 2003, with known height and vital status, were included in this analysis. Follow-up event data until March 2021 were used; 11 487 (7.4%) participants died, whereas 9291 (6.0%) participants had a major cardiovascular event and 5873 (3.8%) participants had a new diagnosis of cancer. After adjustment, taller individuals had lower hazards of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) per 10-cm increase in height 0.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.90-0.96] and major cardiovascular events (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.94-1.00), whereas the hazard of cancer was higher in taller participants (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.18-1.28). The interaction p-values between height and country-income level for all three outcomes were <0.001, suggesting that the association with height varied by country-income level for these outcomes. In low-income countries, height was inversely associated with all-cause mortality (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.84-0.92) and major cardiovascular events (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.82-0.93). There was no association of height with these outcomes in middle- and high-income countries. The respective HRs for cancer in low-, middle- and high-income countries were 1.14 (95% CI 0.99-1.32), 1.12 (95% CI 1.04-1.22) and 1.20 (95% CI 1.14-1.26).
CONCLUSIONS: Unlike high- and middle-income countries, tall stature has a strong inverse association with all-cause mortality and major cardiovascular events in low-income countries. Improved childhood physical development and advances in population-wide cardiovascular treatments in high- and middle-income countries may contribute to this gap. From a life-course perspective, we hypothesize that optimizing maternal and child health in low-income countries may improve rates of premature mortality and cardiovascular events in these countries, at a population level.
METHODS: EMPOWER-Lung 1 was a multicentre, open-label, randomised, phase 3 trial. We enrolled patients (aged ≥18 years) with histologically confirmed squamous or non-squamous advanced non-small-cell lung cancer with PD-L1 tumour expression of 50% or more. We randomly assigned (1:1) patients to intravenous cemiplimab 350 mg every 3 weeks for up to 108 weeks, or until disease progression, or investigator's choice of chemotherapy. Central randomisation scheme generated by an interactive web response system governed the randomisation process that was stratified by histology and geographical region. Primary endpoints were overall survival and progression free survival, as assessed by a blinded independent central review (BICR) per Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours version 1.1. Patients with disease progression on cemiplimab could continue cemiplimab with the addition of up to four cycles of chemotherapy. We assessed response in these patients by BICR against a new baseline, defined as the last scan before chemotherapy initiation. The primary endpoints were assessed in all randomly assigned participants (ie, intention-to-treat population) and in those with a PD-L1 expression of at least 50%. We assessed adverse events in all patients who received at least one dose of their assigned treatment. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03088540.
FINDINGS: Between May 29, 2017, and March 4, 2020, we recruited 712 patients (607 [85%] were male and 105 [15%] were female). We randomly assigned 357 (50%) to cemiplimab and 355 (50%) to chemotherapy. 284 (50%) patients assigned to cemiplimab and 281 (50%) assigned to chemotherapy had verified PD-L1 expression of at least 50%. At 35 months' follow-up, among those with a verified PD-L1 expression of at least 50% median overall survival in the cemiplimab group was 26·1 months (95% CI 22·1-31·8; 149 [52%] of 284 died) versus 13·3 months (10·5-16·2; 188 [67%] of 281 died) in the chemotherapy group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·57, 95% CI 0·46-0·71; p<0·0001), median progression-free survival was 8·1 months (95% CI 6·2-8·8; 214 events occurred) in the cemiplimab group versus 5·3 months (4·3-6·1; 236 events occurred) in the chemotherapy group (HR 0·51, 95% CI 0·42-0·62; p<0·0001). Continued cemiplimab plus chemotherapy as second-line therapy (n=64) resulted in a median progression-free survival of 6·6 months (6·1-9·3) and overall survival of 15·1 months (11·3-18·7). The most common grade 3-4 treatment-emergent adverse events were anaemia (15 [4%] of 356 patients in the cemiplimab group vs 60 [17%] of 343 in the control group), neutropenia (three [1%] vs 35 [10%]), and pneumonia (18 [5%] vs 13 [4%]). Treatment-related deaths occurred in ten (3%) of 356 patients treated with cemiplimab (due to autoimmune myocarditis, cardiac failure, cardio-respiratory arrest, cardiopulmonary failure, septic shock, tumour hyperprogression, nephritis, respiratory failure, [n=1 each] and general disorders or unknown [n=2]) and in seven (2%) of 343 patients treated with chemotherapy (due to pneumonia and pulmonary embolism [n=2 each], and cardiac arrest, lung abscess, and myocardial infarction [n=1 each]). The safety profile of cemiplimab at 35 months, and of continued cemiplimab plus chemotherapy, was generally consistent with that previously observed for these treatments, with no new safety signals INTERPRETATION: At 35 months' follow-up, the survival benefit of cemiplimab for patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer was at least as pronounced as at 1 year, affirming its use as first-line monotherapy for this population. Adding chemotherapy to cemiplimab at progression might provide a new second-line treatment for patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer.
FUNDING: Regeneron Pharmaceuticals and Sanofi.
OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the association between consumption of UPFs and risk of mortality and major CVD in a cohort from multiple world regions.
DESIGN: This analysis includes 138,076 participants without a history of CVD between the ages of 35 and 70 y living on 5 continents, with a median follow-up of 10.2 y. We used country-specific validated food-frequency questionnaires to determine individuals' food intake. We classified foods and beverages based on the NOVA classification into UPFs. The primary outcome was total mortality (CV and non-CV mortality) and secondary outcomes were incident major cardiovascular events. We calculated hazard ratios using multivariable Cox frailty models and evaluated the association of UPFs with total mortality, CV mortality, non-CV mortality, and major CVD events.
RESULTS: In this study, 9227 deaths and 7934 major cardiovascular events were recorded during the follow-up period. We found a diet high in UPFs (≥2 servings/d compared with 0 intake) was associated with higher risk of mortality (HR: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.15, 1.42; P-trend < 0.001), CV mortality (HR: 1.17; 95% CI: 0.98, 1.41; P-trend = 0.04), and non-CV mortality (HR: 1.32; 95% CI 1.17, 1.50; P-trend < 0.001). We did not find a significant association between UPF intake and risk of major CVD.
CONCLUSIONS: A diet with a high intake of UPFs was associated with a higher risk of mortality in a diverse multinational study. Globally, limiting the consumption of UPFs should be encouraged.
METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The measurement challenge has been established as an international resource to offer a common set of anonymised mammogram images for measurement and analysis. To date, full field digital mammogram images and core data from 1650 cases and 1929 controls from five countries have been collated. The measurement challenge is an ongoing collaboration and we are continuing to expand the resource to include additional image sets across different populations (from contributors) and to compare additional measurement methods (by challengers). The intended use of the measurement challenge resource is for refinement and validation of new and existing mammographic measurement methods. The measurement challenge resource provides a standardised dataset of mammographic images and core data that enables investigators to directly compare methods of measuring mammographic density or other mammographic features in case/control sets of both raw and processed images, for the purposes of the comparing their predictions of breast cancer risk.
ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Challengers and contributors are required to enter a Research Collaboration Agreement with the University of Melbourne prior to participation in the measurement challenge. The Challenge database of collated data and images are stored in a secure data repository at the University of Melbourne. Ethics approval for the measurement challenge is held at University of Melbourne (HREC ID 0931343.3).
OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of sitting time with mortality and major CVD in countries at different economic levels using data from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology study.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This population-based cohort study included participants aged 35 to 70 years recruited from January 1, 2003, and followed up until August 31, 2021, in 21 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries with a median follow-up of 11.1 years.
EXPOSURES: Daily sitting time measured using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire.
MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The composite of all-cause mortality and major CVD (defined as cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure).
RESULTS: Of 105 677 participants, 61 925 (58.6%) were women, and the mean (SD) age was 50.4 (9.6) years. During a median follow-up of 11.1 (IQR, 8.6-12.2) years, 6233 deaths and 5696 major cardiovascular events (2349 myocardial infarctions, 2966 strokes, 671 heart failure, and 1792 cardiovascular deaths) were documented. Compared with the reference group (<4 hours per day of sitting), higher sitting time (≥8 hours per day) was associated with an increased risk of the composite outcome (hazard ratio [HR], 1.19; 95% CI, 1.11-1.28; Pfor trend < .001), all-cause mortality (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.10-1.31; Pfor trend < .001), and major CVD (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.10-1.34; Pfor trend < .001). When stratified by country income levels, the association of sitting time with the composite outcome was stronger in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (≥8 hours per day: HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.16-1.44) compared with high-income and upper-middle-income countries (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.98-1.19; P for interaction = .02). Compared with those who reported sitting time less than 4 hours per day and high physical activity level, participants who sat for 8 or more hours per day experienced a 17% to 50% higher associated risk of the composite outcome across physical activity levels; and the risk was attenuated along with increased physical activity levels.
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: High amounts of sitting time were associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality and CVD in economically diverse settings, especially in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Reducing sedentary time along with increasing physical activity might be an important strategy for easing the global burden of premature deaths and CVD.
METHODS: In two phase 3 trials, we assessed iptacopan monotherapy over a 24-week period in patients with hemoglobin levels of less than 10 g per deciliter. In the first, anti-C5-treated patients were randomly assigned to switch to iptacopan or to continue anti-C5 therapy. In the second, single-group trial, patients who had not received complement inhibitors and who had lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels more than 1.5 times the upper limit of the normal range received iptacopan. The two primary end points in the first trial were an increase in the hemoglobin level of at least 2 g per deciliter from baseline and a hemoglobin level of at least 12 g per deciliter, each without red-cell transfusion; the primary end point for the second trial was an increase in hemoglobin level of at least 2 g per deciliter from baseline without red-cell transfusion.
RESULTS: In the first trial, 51 of the 60 patients who received iptacopan had an increase in the hemoglobin level of at least 2 g per deciliter from baseline, and 42 had a hemoglobin level of at least 12 g per deciliter, each without transfusion; none of the 35 anti-C5-treated patients attained the end-point levels. In the second trial, 31 of 33 patients had an increase in the hemoglobin level of at least 2 g per deciliter from baseline without red-cell transfusion. In the first trial, 59 of the 62 patients who received iptacopan and 14 of the 35 anti-C5-treated patients did not require or receive transfusion; in the second trial, no patients required or received transfusion. Treatment with iptacopan increased hemoglobin levels, reduced fatigue, reduced reticulocyte and bilirubin levels, and resulted in mean LDH levels that were less than 1.5 times the upper limit of the normal range. Headache was the most frequent adverse event with iptacopan.
CONCLUSIONS: Iptacopan treatment improved hematologic and clinical outcomes in anti-C5-treated patients with persistent anemia - in whom iptacopan showed superiority to anti-C5 therapy - and in patients who had not received complement inhibitors. (Funded by Novartis; APPLY-PNH ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04558918; APPOINT-PNH ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04820530.).
DESIGN: Multi-national, multi-center collaborative network.
METHODS: The Research Standing Committee of the Asia-Pacific Academy of Ophthalmology and the Asia-Pacific Society of Eye Genetics fostered this research collaboration, which brings together renowned institutions and experts for inherited eye diseases in the Asia-Pacific region. The immediate priority of the network will be inherited retinal diseases (IRDs), where there is a lack of detailed characterization of these conditions and in the number of established registries.
RESULTS: The network comprises 55 members from 35 centers, spanning 12 countries and regions, including Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Nepal, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. The steering committee comprises ophthalmologists with experience in consortia for eye diseases in the Asia-Pacific region, leading ophthalmologists and vision scientists in the field of IRDs internationally, and ophthalmic geneticists.
CONCLUSIONS: The Asia Pacific Inherited Eye Disease (APIED) network aims to (1) improve genotyping capabilities and expertise to increase early and accurate genetic diagnosis of IRDs, (2) harmonise deep phenotyping practices and utilization of ontological terms, and (3) establish high-quality, multi-user, federated disease registries that will facilitate patient care, genetic counseling, and research of IRDs regionally and internationally.
METHODS: We used data from 3,184 BRCA1 and 2,157 BRCA2 families in the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2 to estimate age-specific relative (RR) and absolute risks for 22 first primary cancer types adjusting for family ascertainment.
RESULTS: BRCA1 PVs were associated with risks of male breast (RR = 4.30; 95% CI, 1.09 to 16.96), pancreatic (RR = 2.36; 95% CI, 1.51 to 3.68), and stomach (RR = 2.17; 95% CI, 1.25 to 3.77) cancers. Associations with colorectal and gallbladder cancers were also suggested. BRCA2 PVs were associated with risks of male breast (RR = 44.0; 95% CI, 21.3 to 90.9), stomach (RR = 3.69; 95% CI, 2.40 to 5.67), pancreatic (RR = 3.34; 95% CI, 2.21 to 5.06), and prostate (RR = 2.22; 95% CI, 1.63 to 3.03) cancers. The stomach cancer RR was higher for females than males (6.89 v 2.76; P = .04). The absolute risks to age 80 years ranged from 0.4% for male breast cancer to approximately 2.5% for pancreatic cancer for BRCA1 carriers and from approximately 2.5% for pancreatic cancer to 27% for prostate cancer for BRCA2 carriers.
CONCLUSION: In addition to female breast and ovarian cancers, BRCA1 and BRCA2 PVs are associated with increased risks of male breast, pancreatic, stomach, and prostate (only BRCA2 PVs) cancers, but not with the risks of other previously suggested cancers. The estimated age-specific risks will refine cancer risk management in men and women with BRCA1/2 PVs.
METHODS: In this international, prospective cohort study of 15,065 patients aged 45 yr or older who underwent in-patient noncardiac surgery, troponin T was measured during the first 3 postoperative days. Patients with a troponin T level of 0.04 ng/ml or greater (elevated "abnormal" laboratory threshold) were assessed for ischemic features (i.e., ischemic symptoms and electrocardiography findings). Patients adjudicated as having a nonischemic troponin elevation (e.g., sepsis) were excluded. To establish diagnostic criteria for MINS, the authors used Cox regression analyses in which the dependent variable was 30-day mortality (260 deaths) and independent variables included preoperative variables, perioperative complications, and potential MINS diagnostic criteria.
RESULTS: An elevated troponin after noncardiac surgery, irrespective of the presence of an ischemic feature, independently predicted 30-day mortality. Therefore, the authors' diagnostic criterion for MINS was a peak troponin T level of 0.03 ng/ml or greater judged due to myocardial ischemia. MINS was an independent predictor of 30-day mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.87; 95% CI, 2.96-5.08) and had the highest population-attributable risk (34.0%, 95% CI, 26.6-41.5) of the perioperative complications. Twelve hundred patients (8.0%) suffered MINS, and 58.2% of these patients would not have fulfilled the universal definition of myocardial infarction. Only 15.8% of patients with MINS experienced an ischemic symptom.
CONCLUSION: Among adults undergoing noncardiac surgery, MINS is common and associated with substantial mortality.
METHODS: Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate.
RESULTS: For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced.
CONCLUSIONS: The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.
METHODS: We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units.
RESULTS: We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group.
CONCLUSIONS: As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.
METHODS: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced.
RESULTS: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes.
CONCLUSIONS: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.