DESIGN: A collaboration of 12 prospective cohort studies from Europe and the United States (the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration) that includes 62 760 HIV-infected, therapy-naive individuals followed for an average of 3.3 years. Inverse probability weighting of marginal structural models was used to adjust for measured confounding by indication.
RESULTS: Two thousand and thirty-nine individuals died during the follow-up. The mortality hazard ratio was 0.48 (95% confidence interval 0.41-0.57) for cART initiation versus no initiation. In analyses stratified by CD4 cell count at baseline, the corresponding hazard ratios were 0.29 (0.22-0.37) for less than 100 cells/microl, 0.33 (0.25-0.44) for 100 to less than 200 cells/microl, 0.38 (0.28-0.52) for 200 to less than 350 cells/microl, 0.55 (0.41-0.74) for 350 to less than 500 cells/microl, and 0.77 (0.58-1.01) for 500 cells/microl or more. The estimated hazard ratio varied with years since initiation of cART from 0.57 (0.49-0.67) for less than 1 year since initiation to 0.21 (0.14-0.31) for 5 years or more (P value for trend <0.001).
CONCLUSION: We estimated that cART halved the average mortality rate in HIV-infected individuals. The mortality reduction was greater in those with worse prognosis at the start of follow-up.
METHODS: We investigated overall obesity and abdominal adiposity in relation to SIC in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), a large prospective cohort of approximately half a million men and women from ten European countries. Overall obesity and abdominal obesity were assessed by body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), hip circumference (HC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression modeling was performed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs). Stratified analyses were conducted by sex, BMI, and smoking status.
RESULTS: During an average of 13.9 years of follow-up, 131 incident cases of SIC (including 41 adenocarcinomas, 44 malignant carcinoid tumors, 15 sarcomas and 10 lymphomas, and 21 unknown histology) were identified. WC was positively associated with SIC in a crude model that also included BMI (HR per 5-cm increase = 1.20, 95 % CI 1.04, 1.39), but this association attenuated in the multivariable model (HR 1.18, 95 % CI 0.98, 1.42). However, the association between WC and SIC was strengthened when the analysis was restricted to adenocarcinoma of the small intestine (multivariable HR adjusted for BMI = 1.56, 95 % CI 1.11, 2.17). There were no other significant associations.
CONCLUSION: WC, rather than BMI, may be positively associated with adenocarcinomas but not carcinoid tumors of the small intestine.
IMPACT: Abdominal obesity is a potential risk factor for adenocarcinoma in the small intestine.
DESIGN: Individual participant meta-analysis using data from 25 cohorts participating in the CHANCES consortium. Data were harmonised, analysed separately employing Cox proportional hazard regression models, and combined by meta-analysis.
RESULTS: Overall, 503,905 participants aged 60 and older were included in this study, of whom 37,952 died from cardiovascular disease. Random effects meta-analysis of the association of smoking status with cardiovascular mortality yielded a summary hazard ratio of 2.07 (95% CI 1.82 to 2.36) for current smokers and 1.37 (1.25 to 1.49) for former smokers compared with never smokers. Corresponding summary estimates for risk advancement periods were 5.50 years (4.25 to 6.75) for current smokers and 2.16 years (1.38 to 2.39) for former smokers. The excess risk in smokers increased with cigarette consumption in a dose-response manner, and decreased continuously with time since smoking cessation in former smokers. Relative risk estimates for acute coronary events and for stroke events were somewhat lower than for cardiovascular mortality, but patterns were similar.
CONCLUSIONS: Our study corroborates and expands evidence from previous studies in showing that smoking is a strong independent risk factor of cardiovascular events and mortality even at older age, advancing cardiovascular mortality by more than five years, and demonstrating that smoking cessation in these age groups is still beneficial in reducing the excess risk.
METHODS AND FINDINGS: The web-based Joint Asia Diabetes Evaluation (JADE) platform provides a protocol to guide data collection for issuing a personalized JADE report including risk categories (1-4, low-high), 5-year probabilities of cardiovascular-renal events, and trends and targets of 4 risk factors with tailored decision support. The JADE program is a prospective cohort study implemented in a naturalistic environment where patients underwent nurse-led structured evaluation (blood/urine/eye/feet) in public and private outpatient clinics and diabetes centers in Hong Kong. We retrospectively analyzed the data of 16,624 Han Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes who were enrolled in 2007-2015. In the public setting, the non-JADE group (n = 3,587) underwent structured evaluation for risk factors and complications only, while the JADE (n = 9,601) group received a JADE report with group empowerment by nurses. In a community-based, nurse-led, university-affiliated diabetes center (UDC), the JADE-Personalized (JADE-P) group (n = 3,436) received a JADE report, personalized empowerment, and annual telephone reminder for reevaluation and engagement. The primary composite outcome was time to the first occurrence of cardiovascular-renal diseases, all-site cancer, and/or death, based on hospitalization data censored on 30 June 2017. During 94,311 person-years of follow-up in 2007-2017, 7,779 primary events occurred. Compared with the JADE group (136.22 cases per 1,000 patient-years [95% CI 132.35-140.18]), the non-JADE group had higher (145.32 [95% CI 138.68-152.20]; P = 0.020) while the JADE-P group had lower event rates (70.94 [95% CI 67.12-74.91]; P < 0.001). The adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for the primary composite outcome were 1.22 (95% CI 1.15-1.30) and 0.70 (95% CI 0.66-0.75), respectively, independent of risk profiles, education levels, drug usage, self-care, and comorbidities at baseline. We reported consistent results in propensity-score-matched analyses and after accounting for loss to follow-up. Potential limitations include its nonrandomized design that precludes causal inference, residual confounding, and participation bias.
CONCLUSIONS: ICT-assisted integrated care was associated with a reduction in clinical events, including death in type 2 diabetes in public and private healthcare settings.
METHODS: All 5616 patients, diagnosed with breast cancer in University Malaya Medical Centre from 1999 to 2013 were included. In 945 elderly patients (aged 65 years and above), multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with treatment, following adjustment for age, ethnicity, tumor, and other treatment characteristics. The impact of lack of treatment on survival of the elderly was assessed while accounting for comorbidities.
RESULTS: One in five elderly patients had comorbidities. Compared to younger patients, the elderly had more favorable tumor characteristics, and received less loco-regional treatment and chemotherapy. Within stage I-IIIa elderly breast cancer patients, 10 % did not receive any surgery. These patients were older, more likely to be Malays, have comorbidities, and bigger tumors. In elderlies with indications for adjuvant radiotherapy, no irradiation (30 %) was associated with increasing age, comorbidity, and the absence of systemic therapy. Hormone therapy was optimal, but only 35 % of elderly women with ER negative tumors received chemotherapy. Compared to elderly women who received adequate treatment, those not receiving surgery (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.30, 95 %CI: 1.10-4.79), or radiotherapy (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.56, 95 %CI: 1.10-2.19), were associated with higher mortality. Less than 25 % of the survival discrepancy between elderly women receiving loco-regional treatment and no treatment were attributed to excess comorbidities in untreated patients.
CONCLUSION: While the presence of comorbidities significantly influenced loco-regional treatment decisions in the elderly, it was only able to explain the lower survival rates in untreated patients up to a certain extent, suggesting missed opportunities for treatment.
METHODS: Venous blood samples from 46 pathologically confirmed PDAC patients were collected prospectively before surgery and immunoassayed using a specially designed TU-chip™. Captured CTCs were differentiated into epithelial (E), mesenchymal and hybrid (H) phenotypes. A further 45 non-neoplastic healthy donors provided blood for cell line validation study and CTC false positive quantification.
FINDINGS: A validated multivariable model consisting of disjunctively combined CTC phenotypes: "H-CTC≥15.0 CTCs/2ml OR E-CTC≥11.0 CTCs/2ml" generated an optimal prediction of metastasis with a sensitivity of 1.000 (95% CI 0.889-1.000) and specificity of 0.886 (95% CI 0.765-0.972). The adjusted Kaplan-Meier median OS constructed using Cox proportional-hazard models and stratified for E-CTC
METHODS: We conducted a multicentre prospective longitudinal cohort study in 11 Malaysian hospitals including medical/surgical patients (n = 259) who were sedated and ventilated ≥24 h. Patients were followed from ICU admission up to 28 days in ICU with 4-hourly sedation and daily delirium assessments and 180-day mortality. Deep sedation was defined as Richmond Agitation Sedation Score (RASS) ≤-3.
RESULTS: The cohort had a mean (SD) age of 53.1 (15.9) years and APACHE II score of 21.3 (8.2) with hospital and 180-day mortality of 82 (31.7%) and 110/237 (46.4%). Patients were followed for 2,657 ICU days and underwent 13,836 RASS assessments. Midazolam prescription was predominant compared to propofol, given to 241 (93%) versus 72 (28%) patients (P < 0.0001) for 966 (39.6%) versus 183 (7.5%) study days respectively. Deep sedation occurred in (182/257) 71% patients at first assessment and in 159 (61%) patients and 1,658 (59%) of all RASS assessments at 48 h. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analysis adjusting for a priori assigned covariates including sedative agents, diagnosis, age, APACHE II score, operative, elective, vasopressors and dialysis showed that early deep sedation was independently associated with longer time to extubation [hazard ratio (HR) 0.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89-0.97, P = 0.003], hospital death (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.05-1.18, P < 0.001) and 180-day mortality (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.04-1.15, P = 0.002), but not time to delirium (HR 0.98, P = 0.23). Delirium occurred in 114 (44%) of patients.
CONCLUSION: Irrespective of sedative choice, early deep sedation was independently associated with delayed extubation and higher mortality, and thus was a potentially modifiable risk in interventional trials.
DESIGN: Prospective cohort study.
SETTING: PURE study in 21 countries.
PARTICIPANTS: 148 858 participants with median follow-up of 9.5 years.
EXPOSURES: Country specific validated food frequency questionnaires were used to assess intakes of refined grains, whole grains, and white rice.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Composite of mortality or major cardiovascular events (defined as death from cardiovascular causes, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure). Hazard ratios were estimated for associations of grain intakes with mortality, major cardiovascular events, and their composite by using multivariable Cox frailty models with random intercepts to account for clustering by centre.
RESULTS: Analyses were based on 137 130 participants after exclusion of those with baseline cardiovascular disease. During follow-up, 9.2% (n=12 668) of these participants had a composite outcome event. The highest category of intake of refined grains (≥350 g/day or about 7 servings/day) was associated with higher risk of total mortality (hazard ratio 1.27, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 1.46; P for trend=0.004), major cardiovascular disease events (1.33, 1.16 to 1.52; P for trend<0.001), and their composite (1.28, 1.15 to 1.42; P for trend<0.001) compared with the lowest category of intake (<50 g/day). Higher intakes of refined grains were associated with higher systolic blood pressure. No significant associations were found between intakes of whole grains or white rice and health outcomes.
CONCLUSION: High intake of refined grains was associated with higher risk of mortality and major cardiovascular disease events. Globally, lower consumption of refined grains should be considered.
BACKGROUND: MINS has been independently associated with 30-day mortality after noncardiac surgery. The characteristics and prognostic importance of MINS in vascular surgery patients are poorly described.
METHODS: This was an international prospective cohort study of 15,102 noncardiac surgery patients 45 years or older, of whom 502 patients underwent vascular surgery. All patients had fourth-generation plasma troponin T (TnT) concentrations measured during the first 3 postoperative days. MINS was defined as a TnT of 0.03 ng/mL of higher secondary to ischemia. The objectives of the present study were to determine (i) if MINS is prognostically important in vascular surgical patients, (ii) the clinical characteristics of vascular surgery patients with and without MINS, (iii) the 30-day outcomes for vascular surgery patients with and without MINS, and (iv) the proportion of MINS that probably would have gone undetected without routine troponin monitoring.
RESULTS: The incidence of MINS in the vascular surgery patients was 19.1% (95% confidence interval (CI), 15.7%-22.6%). 30-day all-cause mortality in the vascular cohort was 12.5% (95% CI 7.3%-20.6%) in patients with MINS compared with 1.5% (95% CI 0.7%-3.2%) in patients without MINS (P < 0.001). MINS was independently associated with 30-day mortality in vascular patients (odds ratio, 9.48; 95% CI, 3.46-25.96). The 30-day mortality was similar in MINS patients with (15.0%; 95% CI, 7.1-29.1) and without an ischemic feature (12.2%; 95% CI, 5.3-25.5, P = 0.76). The proportion of vascular surgery patients who suffered MINS without overt evidence of myocardial ischemia was 74.1% (95% CI, 63.6-82.4).
CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 1 in 5 patients experienced MINS after vascular surgery. MINS was independently associated with 30-day mortality. The majority of patients with MINS were asymptomatic and would have gone undetected without routine postoperative troponin measurement.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data on 132,373 individuals aged 35-70 years from 21 countries were analyzed. White rice consumption (cooked) was categorized as <150, ≥150 to <300, ≥300 to <450, and ≥450 g/day, based on one cup of cooked rice = 150 g. The primary outcome was incident diabetes. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using a multivariable Cox frailty model.
RESULTS: During a mean follow-up period of 9.5 years, 6,129 individuals without baseline diabetes developed incident diabetes. In the overall cohort, higher intake of white rice (≥450 g/day compared with <150 g/day) was associated with increased risk of diabetes (HR 1.20; 95% CI 1.02-1.40; P for trend = 0.003). However, the highest risk was seen in South Asia (HR 1.61; 95% CI 1.13-2.30; P for trend = 0.02), followed by other regions of the world (which included South East Asia, Middle East, South America, North America, Europe, and Africa) (HR 1.41; 95% CI 1.08-1.86; P for trend = 0.01), while in China there was no significant association (HR 1.04; 95% CI 0.77-1.40; P for trend = 0.38).
CONCLUSIONS: Higher consumption of white rice is associated with an increased risk of incident diabetes with the strongest association being observed in South Asia, while in other regions, a modest, nonsignificant association was seen.
OBJECTIVES: In this individual patient data meta-analysis of critically ill patients with severe sepsis, we aimed to compare clinical outcomes of those treated with continuous versus intermittent infusion of β-lactam antibiotics.
METHODS: We identified relevant randomized controlled trials comparing continuous versus intermittent infusion of β-lactam antibiotics in critically ill patients with severe sepsis. We assessed the quality of the studies according to four criteria. We combined individual patient data from studies and assessed data integrity for common baseline demographics and study endpoints, including hospital mortality censored at 30 days and clinical cure. We then determined the pooled estimates of effect and investigated factors associated with hospital mortality in multivariable analysis.
MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We identified three randomized controlled trials in which researchers recruited a total of 632 patients with severe sepsis. The two groups were well balanced in terms of age, sex, and illness severity. The rates of hospital mortality and clinical cure for the continuous versus intermittent infusion groups were 19.6% versus 26.3% (relative risk, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.56-1.00; P = 0.045) and 55.4% versus 46.3% (relative risk, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.40; P = 0.021), respectively. In a multivariable model, intermittent β-lactam administration, higher Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, use of renal replacement therapy, and infection by nonfermenting gram-negative bacilli were significantly associated with hospital mortality. Continuous β-lactam administration was not independently associated with clinical cure.
CONCLUSIONS: Compared with intermittent dosing, administration of β-lactam antibiotics by continuous infusion in critically ill patients with severe sepsis is associated with decreased hospital mortality.