METHODS: A decision-analytic Markov model was developed to simulate the impact of S. suis infection and its major complications: death, meningitis and infective endocarditis among Thai people in 2019 with starting age of 51 years. Transition probabilities, and inputs pertaining to costs, utilities and productivity impairment associated with long-term complications were derived from published sources. A lifetime time horizon with follow-up until death or age 100 years was adopted. The simulation was repeated assuming that the cohort had not been infected with S.suis. The differences between the two set of model outputs in years of life, QALYs, and PALYs lived reflected the impact of S.suis infection. An annual discount rate of 3% was applied to both costs and outcomes. One-way sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulation modeling technique using 10,000 iterations were performed to assess the impact of uncertainty in the model.
KEY RESULTS: This cohort incurred 769 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 695 to 841) years of life lost (14% of predicted years of life lived if infection had not occurred), 826 (95% UI: 588 to 1,098) QALYs lost (21%) and 793 (95%UI: 717 to 867) PALYs (15%) lost. These equated to an average of 2.46 years of life, 2.64 QALYs and 2.54 PALYs lost per person. The loss in PALYs was associated with a loss of 346 (95% UI: 240 to 461) million Thai baht (US$11.3 million) in GDP, which equated to 1.1 million Thai baht (US$ 36,033) lost per person.
CONCLUSIONS: S.suis infection imposes a significant economic burden both in terms of health and productivity. Further research to investigate the effectiveness of public health awareness programs and disease control interventions should be mandated to provide a clearer picture for decision making in public health strategies and resource allocations.
MATERIAL AND METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study conducted in a tertiary referral hospital in Sydney, Australia. In all, 212 women with a low-risk pregnancy or with gestational diabetes were recruited including 158 nulliparous and 54 parous women. Maternal demographic, clinical and ultrasound characteristics were collected at 37 weeks of gestation. Semi-Bayesian logistic regression and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation were used to assess the relation between cervical length and cesarean section in labor.
RESULTS: Rates of cesarean section were 5% (2/55) for cervical length ≤20 mm, 17% (17/101) for cervical length 20-32 mm, and 27% (13/56) for cervical length >32 mm. These rates were 4, 22 and 33%, respectively, in nulliparous women. In the semi-Bayesian analysis, the odds ratio for cesarean section was 6.2 (95% confidence interval 2.2-43) for cervical length 20-32 mm and 10 (95% confidence interval 4.8-74) for cervical length >32 mm compared with the lowest quartile of cervical length, after adjusting for maternal age, parity, height, prepregnancy body mass index, gestational diabetes, induction of labor, neonatal sex and birthweight centile.
CONCLUSIONS: Cervical length at 37 weeks of gestation is associated with intrapartum cesarean section.
PATIENTS AND METHODS: Mefloquine pharmacokinetics was assessed in 24 healthy adults and 43 patients with Plasmodium falciparum malaria administered mefloquine in combination with artesunate. Population pharmacokinetic modelling was conducted using NONMEM.
RESULTS: A two-compartment model with a single transit compartment and first-order elimination from the central compartment most adequately described mefloquine concentration-time data. The model incorporated population parameter variability for clearance (CL/F), central volume of distribution (VC/F) and absorption rate constant (KA) and identified, in addition to body weight, malaria infection as a covariate for VC/F (but not CL/F). Monte Carlo simulations predict that falciparum malaria infection is associated with a shorter elimination half-life (407 versus 566 h) and T>MIC (766 versus 893 h).
CONCLUSIONS: This is the first known population pharmacokinetic study to show falciparum malaria to influence mefloquine disposition. Protein binding, anaemia and other factors may contribute to differences between healthy individuals and patients. As VC/F is related to the earlier portion of the concentration-time profiles, which occurs during acute malaria, and CL/F is more related to the terminal phase during convalescence after treatment, this may explain why malaria was found to be a covariate for VC/F but not CL/F.
METHODS: A validated computer simulation model (the IMS CORE Diabetes Model) was used to estimate the long-term projection of costs and clinical outcomes. The model was populated with published characteristics of Thai patients with type 2 diabetes. Baseline risk factors were obtained from Thai cohort studies, while relative risk reduction was derived from a meta-analysis study conducted by the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technology in Health. Only direct costs were taken into account. Costs of diabetes management and complications were obtained from hospital databases in Thailand. Both costs and outcomes were discounted at 3 % per annum and presented in US dollars in terms of 2014 dollar value. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were also performed.
RESULTS: IGlar is associated with a slight gain in quality-adjusted life years (0.488 QALYs), an additional life expectancy (0.677 life years), and an incremental cost of THB119,543 (US$3522.19) compared with NPH insulin. The ICERs were THB244,915/QALY (US$7216.12/QALY) and THB176,525/life-year gained (LYG) (US$5201.09/LYG). The ICER was sensitive to discount rates and IGlar cost. At the acceptable willingness to pay of THB160,000/QALY (US$4714.20/QALY), the probability that IGlar was cost effective was less than 20 %.
CONCLUSIONS: Compared to treatment with NPH insulin, treatment with IGlar in type 2 diabetes patients who had uncontrolled blood glucose with oral anti-diabetic drugs did not represent good value for money at the acceptable threshold in Thailand.