METHODS AND FINDINGS: Our approach is based on a parsimonious mathematical model of disease transmission and only requires data collected through routine surveillance and standard case investigations. We apply it to assess the transmissibility of swine-origin influenza A H3N2v-M virus in the US, Nipah virus in Malaysia and Bangladesh, and also present a non-zoonotic example (cholera in the Dominican Republic). Estimation is based on two simple summary statistics, the proportion infected by the natural reservoir among detected cases (G) and among the subset of the first detected cases in each cluster (F). If detection of a case does not affect detection of other cases from the same cluster, we find that R can be estimated by 1-G; otherwise R can be estimated by 1-F when the case detection rate is low. In more general cases, bounds on R can still be derived.
CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a simple approach with limited data requirements that enables robust assessment of the risks posed by emerging zoonoses. We illustrate this by deriving transmissibility estimates for the H3N2v-M virus, an important step in evaluating the possible pandemic threat posed by this virus. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
METHODS: A retrospective case-note analysis was conducted on a cohort of 3935 patients attending primary care at the University Malaya Medical Centre, Malaysia from February 2012 till May 2014 with URTI symptoms. Demographics, clinical characteristics, medical and vaccination history were obtained from electronic medical records, and mortality data from the National Registration Department. Comparisons were made between those aged <25, ≥25 to <65 and ≥65 years.
RESULTS: 470 (11.9%) had PCR-confirmed influenza virus infection. Six (1.3%) received prior influenza vaccination. Those aged ≥65 years were more likely to have ≥2 comorbidities (P
MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this study, aptamer-antibody complementation was implemented on a multiwalled carbon nanotube-gold conjugated sensing surface with a dielectrode to detect pandemic pdmH1N1. Preliminary biomolecular and dielectrode surface analyses were performed by molecular and microscopic methods. A stable anti-pdmH1N1 aptamer sequence interacted with hemagglutinin (HA) and was compared with the antibody interaction. Both aptamer and antibody attachments on the surface as the basic molecule attained the saturation at nanomolar levels.
RESULTS: Aptamers were found to have higher affinity and electric response than antibodies against HA of pdmH1N1. Linear regression with aptamer-HA interaction displays sensitivity in the range of 10 fM, whereas antibody-HA interaction shows a 100-fold lower level (1 pM). When sandwich-based detection of aptamer-HA-antibody and antibody-HA-aptamer was performed, a higher response of current was observed in both cases. Moreover, the detection strategy with aptamer clearly discriminated the closely related HA of influenza B/Tokyo/53/99 and influenza A/Panama/2007/1999 (H3N2).
CONCLUSION: The high performance of the abovementioned detection methods was supported by the apparent specificity and reproducibility by the demonstrated sensing system.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Sentinel and study sites collected nasopharyngeal specimens for diagnostic detection, virus isolation, antigenic characterization, sequencing and antiviral susceptibility analysis from patients who fulfilled case definitions for influenza-like illness, acute lower respiratory infections and event-based surveillance. Each year in Cambodia, influenza viruses were detected mainly from June to November, during the rainy season. Antigenic analysis show that A/H1N1pdm09 isolates belonged to the A/California/7/2009-like group. Circulating A/H3N2 strains were A/Brisbane/10/2007-like in 2009 before drifting to A/Perth/16/2009-like in 2010 and 2011. The Cambodian influenza B isolates from 2009 to 2011 all belonged to the B/Victoria lineage represented by the vaccine strains B/Brisbane/60/2008 and B/Malaysia/2506/2004. Sequences of the M2 gene obtained from representative 2009-2011 A/H3N2 and A/H1N1pdm09 strains all contained the S31N mutation associated with adamantanes resistance except for one A/H1N1pdm09 strain isolated in 2011 that lacked this mutation. No reduction in the susceptibility to neuraminidase inhibitors was observed among the influenza viruses circulating from 2009 to 2011. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that A/H3N2 strains clustered each year to a distinct group while most A/H1N1pdm09 isolates belonged to the S203T clade.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In Cambodia, from 2009 to 2011, influenza activity occurred throughout the year with peak seasonality during the rainy season from June to November. Seasonal influenza epidemics were due to multiple genetically distinct viruses, even though all of the isolates were antigenically similar to the reference vaccine strains. The drug susceptibility profile of Cambodian influenza strains revealed that neuraminidase inhibitors would be the drug of choice for influenza treatment and chemoprophylaxis in Cambodia, as adamantanes are no longer expected to be effective.