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Fulltext Implementing uberization in malaysian healthcare services

Rajesh Kumar Muniandy, Merly Grace Lansing

Borneo Journal of Medical Sciences, 2020;14(2):53-57.
MyJurnal

Getting appropriate healthcare is a challenge to the citizens in Malaysia due to the limited facilities, healthcare providers, and cost of healthcare. Uberization of healthcare will help fill this gap. Uberization helps modify the market or economic model with the introduction of a cheaper and more effective alternative service by introducing a different way of buying or using it, with the use of mobile technology. With powerful artificial intelligence engines operating on cloud servers, mobile apps can provide a better healthcare experience for patients. With uberization application, the patient need not come to the hospital to see a doctor before a treatment can be planned. Once a request is made by the patient, the healthcare providers can come to see the patient at an agreed place. This article aims to explore the possible uberization of healthcare in Malaysia.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Economic
Fulltext SEM-PLS analysis of inhibiting factors of cost performance for large construction projects in Malaysia: perspective of clients and consultants

Memon AH, Rahman IA

ScientificWorldJournal, 2014;2014:165158.
PMID: 24693227 DOI: 10.1155/2014/165158

This study uncovered inhibiting factors to cost performance in large construction projects of Malaysia. Questionnaire survey was conducted among clients and consultants involved in large construction projects. In the questionnaire, a total of 35 inhibiting factors grouped in 7 categories were presented to the respondents for rating significant level of each factor. A total of 300 questionnaire forms were distributed. Only 144 completed sets were received and analysed using advanced multivariate statistical software of Structural Equation Modelling (SmartPLS v2). The analysis involved three iteration processes where several of the factors were deleted in order to make the model acceptable. The result of the analysis found that R(2) value of the model is 0.422 which indicates that the developed model has a substantial impact on cost performance. Based on the final form of the model, contractor's site management category is the most prominent in exhibiting effect on cost performance of large construction projects. This finding is validated using advanced techniques of power analysis. This vigorous multivariate analysis has explicitly found the significant category which consists of several causative factors to poor cost performance in large construction projects. This will benefit all parties involved in construction projects for controlling cost overrun.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Economic*
Understanding waste for lean health information systems: a preliminary review

Kalong NA, Yusof MM

Stud Health Technol Inform, 2013;192:749-53.
PMID: 23920657

Despite the rapid application of the Lean method in healthcare, its study in IT environments, particularly in Health Information Systems (HIS), is still limited primarily by a lack of waste identification. This paper aims to review the literature to provide an insight into the nature of waste in HIS from the perspective of Lean management. Eight waste frameworks within the context of healthcare and information technology were reviewed. Based on the review, it was found that all the seven waste categories from the manufacturing sector also exist in both the healthcare and IT domains. However, the nature of the waste varied depending on the processes of the domains. A number of additional waste categories were also identified. The findings reveal that the traditional waste model can be adapted to identify waste in both the healthcare and IT sectors.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Economic*
Fulltext Hybrid support vector regression and autoregressive integrated moving average models improved by particle swarm optimization for property crime rates forecasting with economic indicators

Alwee R, Shamsuddin SM, Sallehuddin R

ScientificWorldJournal, 2013;2013:951475.
PMID: 23766729 DOI: 10.1155/2013/951475

Crimes forecasting is an important area in the field of criminology. Linear models, such as regression and econometric models, are commonly applied in crime forecasting. However, in real crimes data, it is common that the data consists of both linear and nonlinear components. A single model may not be sufficient to identify all the characteristics of the data. The purpose of this study is to introduce a hybrid model that combines support vector regression (SVR) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) to be applied in crime rates forecasting. SVR is very robust with small training data and high-dimensional problem. Meanwhile, ARIMA has the ability to model several types of time series. However, the accuracy of the SVR model depends on values of its parameters, while ARIMA is not robust to be applied to small data sets. Therefore, to overcome this problem, particle swarm optimization is used to estimate the parameters of the SVR and ARIMA models. The proposed hybrid model is used to forecast the property crime rates of the United State based on economic indicators. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid model is able to produce more accurate forecasting results as compared to the individual models.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Economic*
Fulltext A systematic review of studies eliciting willingness-to-pay per quality-adjusted life year: does it justify CE threshold?

Nimdet K, Chaiyakunapruk N, Vichansavakul K, Ngorsuraches S

PLoS One, 2015;10(4):e0122760.
PMID: 25855971 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0122760

A number of studies have been conducted to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) per quality-adjusted life years (QALY) in patients or general population for various diseases. However, there has not been any systematic review summarizing the relationship between WTP per QALY and cost-effectiveness (CE) threshold based on World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Economic*
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Fondaparinux vs Enoxaparin in Non-ST Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome in Thailand

Permsuwan U, Chaiyakunapruk N, Nathisuwan S, Sukonthasarn A

Heart Lung Circ, 2015 Sep;24(9):860-8.
PMID: 25837019 DOI: 10.1016/j.hlc.2015.02.018

Non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) imposes a significant health and economic burden on a society. Anticoagulants are recommended as standard therapy by various clinical practice guidelines. Fondaparinux was introduced and evaluated in a number of large randomised, controlled trials. This study therefore aimed to determine the cost-effectiveness of fondaparinux versus enoxaparin in the treatment of NSTE-ACS in Thailand.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Economic*
A systematic review of utility values for chemotherapy-related adverse events

Shabaruddin FH, Chen LC, Elliott RA, Payne K

Pharmacoeconomics, 2013 Apr;31(4):277-88.
PMID: 23529208 DOI: 10.1007/s40273-013-0033-x

BACKGROUND: Chemotherapy offers cancer patients the potential benefits of improved mortality and morbidity but may cause detrimental outcomes due to adverse drug events (ADEs), some of which requiring time-consuming, resource-intensive and costly clinical management. To appropriately assess chemotherapy agents in an economic evaluation, ADE-related parameters such as the incidence, (dis)utility and cost of ADEs should be reflected within the model parameters. To date, there has been no systematic summary of the existing literature that quantifies the utilities of ADEs due to healthcare interventions in general and chemotherapy treatments in particular.
OBJECTIVE: This review aimed to summarize the current evidence base of reported utility values for chemotherapy-related ADEs.
METHODS: A structured electronic search combining terms for utility, utility valuation methods and generic terms for cancer treatment was conducted in MEDLINE and EMBASE in June 2011. Inclusion criteria were: (1) elicitation of utility values for chemotherapy-related ADEs and (2) primary data. Two reviewers identified studies and extracted data independently. Any disagreements were resolved by a third reviewer.
RESULTS: Eighteen studies met the inclusion criteria from the 853 abstracts initially identified, collectively reporting 218 utility values for chemotherapy-related ADEs. All 18 studies used short descriptions (vignettes) to obtain the utility values, with nine studies presenting the vignettes used in the valuation exercises. Of the 218 utility values, 178 were elicited using standard gamble (SG) or time trade-off (TTO) approaches, while 40 were elicited using visual analogue scales (VAS). There were 169 utility values of specific chemotherapy-related ADEs (with the top ten being anaemia [34 values], nausea and/or vomiting [32 values], neuropathy [21 values], neutropenia [12 values], diarrhoea [12 values], stomatitis [10 values], fatigue [8 values], alopecia [7 values], hand-foot syndrome [5 values] and skin reaction [5 values]) and 49 of non-specific chemotherapy-related adverse events. In most cases, it was difficult to directly compare the utility values as various definitions and study-specific vignettes were used for the ADEs of interest.
LIMITATIONS: This review was designed to provide an overall description of existing literature reporting utility values for chemotherapy-related ADEs. The findings were not exhaustive and were limited to publications that could be identified using the search strategy employed and those reported in the English language.
CONCLUSIONS: This review identified wide ranges in the utility values reported for broad categories of specific chemotherapy-related ADEs. There were difficulties in comparing the values directly as various study-specific definitions were used for these ADEs and most studies did not make the vignettes used in the valuation exercises available. It is recommended that a basic minimum requirement be developed for the transparent reporting of study designs eliciting utility values, incorporating key criteria such as reporting how the vignettes were developed and presenting the vignettes used in the valuation tasks as well as valuing and reporting the utility values of the ADE-free base states. It is also recommended, in the future, for studies valuing the utilities of chemotherapy-related ADEs to define the ADEs according to the National Cancer Institute (NCI) definitions for chemotherapy-related ADEs as the use of the same definition across studies would ease the comparison and selection of utility values and make the overall inclusion of adverse events within economic models of chemotherapy agents much more straightforward.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Economic*
Fulltext Cost utility analysis of end stage renal disease treatment in Ministry of Health dialysis centres, Malaysia: Hemodialysis versus continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis

Surendra NK, Abdul Manaf MR, Hooi LS, Bavanandan S, Mohamad Nor FS, Firdaus Khan SS, et al.

PLoS One, 2019;14(10):e0218422.
PMID: 31644577 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0218422

OBJECTIVES: In Malaysia, there is exponential growth of patients on dialysis. Dialysis treatment consumes a considerable portion of healthcare expenditure. Comparative assessment of their cost effectiveness can assist in providing a rational basis for preference of dialysis modalities.
METHODS: A cost utility study of hemodialysis (HD) and continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) was conducted from a Ministry of Health (MOH) perspective. A Markov model was also developed to investigate the cost effectiveness of increasing uptake of incident CAPD to 55% and 60% versus current practice of 40% CAPD in a five-year temporal horizon. A scenario with 30% CAPD was also measured. The costs and utilities were sourced from published data which were collected as part of this study. The transitional probabilities and survival estimates were obtained from the Malaysia Dialysis and Transplant Registry (MDTR). The outcome measures were cost per life year (LY), cost per quality adjusted LY (QALY) and incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) for the Markov model. Sensitivity analyses were performed.
RESULTS: LYs saved for HD was 4.15 years and 3.70 years for CAPD. QALYs saved for HD was 3.544 years and 3.348 for CAPD. Cost per LY saved was RM39,791 for HD and RM37,576 for CAPD. The cost per QALY gained was RM46,595 for HD and RM41,527 for CAPD. The Markov model showed commencement of CAPD in 50% of ESRD patients as initial dialysis modality was very cost-effective versus current practice of 40% within MOH. Reduction in CAPD use was associated with higher costs and a small devaluation in QALYs.
CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest provision of both modalities is fiscally feasible; increasing CAPD as initial dialysis modality would be more cost-effective.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Economic*
Fulltext Globalization and economic growth: empirical evidence on the role of complementarities

Samimi P, Jenatabadi HS

PLoS One, 2014;9(4):e87824.
PMID: 24721896 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0087824

This study was carried out to investigate the effect of economic globalization on economic growth in OIC countries. Furthermore, the study examined the effect of complementary policies on the growth effect of globalization. It also investigated whether the growth effect of globalization depends on the income level of countries. Utilizing the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator within the framework of a dynamic panel data approach, we provide evidence which suggests that economic globalization has statistically significant impact on economic growth in OIC countries. The results indicate that this positive effect is increased in the countries with better-educated workers and well-developed financial systems. Our finding shows that the effect of economic globalization also depends on the country's level of income. High and middle-income countries benefit from globalization whereas low-income countries do not gain from it. In fact, the countries should receive the appropriate income level to be benefited from globalization. Economic globalization not only directly promotes growth but also indirectly does so via complementary reforms.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Economic
Insights into public export promotion programs in an emerging economy: the case of Malaysian SMEs

Ayob AH, Freixanet J

Eval Program Plann, 2014 Oct;46:38-46.
PMID: 24907593 DOI: 10.1016/j.evalprogplan.2014.05.005

This study evaluates the impact of public export promotion programs (EPPs) among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Malaysia. Three indicators, level of awareness, frequency of use, and perception of usefulness, were examined according to a firm's export status. The global evaluation suggests that exporters are more frequent users of EPPs and perceive them to be more useful than non-exporters. Nonetheless, both groups demonstrate higher levels of awareness, are frequent users, and perceive the programs relating to export info/knowledge are more usefulness than programs relating to financial assistance. Further analysis also reveals that the frequency of use and the perception of usefulness for most programs are positively related to export experience, but not to export turnover. This study offers insights into the effectiveness of export programs for encouraging export initiation and expansion in an emerging economy.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Economic
Fulltext A novel investigation of the influence of corporate governance on firms' credit ratings

Alkhawaldeh AAK, Jaber JJ, Boughaci D, Ismail N

PLoS One, 2021;16(5):e0250242.
PMID: 33945537 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250242

Corporate governance is the way of governing a firm in order to increase its accountability and to avoid any massive damage before it occurs. The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of capital structure, firms' size, and competitive advantages of firms as control variables on credit ratings. We investigate the role of corporate governance in improving the firms' credit rating using a sample of Jordanian listed firms. We split firms into four categories according to WVB credit rating. We use both the binary logistic regression (LR) and the ordinal logistic regression (OLR) to model credit ratings in Jordanian environment. The empirical results show that the control variables are strong determinants of credit ratings. When we evaluate the relationship between the governance variables and credit ratings, we found interesting results. The board stockholders and board expertise are moderately significant. The board independence and role duality are weakly significant, while board size is insignificant.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Economic
Tapered US carbon emissions during good times: what's old, what's new?

Eng YK, Wong CY

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int, 2017 Nov;24(32):25047-25060.
PMID: 28920161 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-017-0144-6

In light of a slow buildup in CO2 emissions since the recovery, this paper revisits the relationship between CO2 emissions and the US economy using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model, in which the determinants are identified through an expanded real business cycle model. We find convincing evidence that CO2 emissions decline more rapidly during recessions than increase during expansions over the long run. Of all determinants considered, long-run asymmetry is fostered once vehicle miles traveled is controlled. This calls for a greater attention to public transportation development and vehicle miles traveled tax for slowing down stock buildup of CO2 emissions during good times.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Economic
Fulltext The future of fish in Africa: Employment and investment opportunities

Chan CY, Tran N, Cheong KC, Sulser TB, Cohen PJ, Wiebe K, et al.

PLoS One, 2021;16(12):e0261615.
PMID: 34936682 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0261615

One of the most pressing challenges facing food systems in Africa is ensuring availability of a healthy and sustainable diet to 2.4 billion people by 2050. The continent has struggled with development challenges, particularly chronic food insecurity and pervasive poverty. In Africa's food systems, fish and other aquatic foods play a multifaceted role in generating income, and providing a critical source of essential micronutrients. To date, there are no estimates of investment and potential returns for domestic fish production in Africa. To contribute to policy debates about the future of fish in Africa, we applied the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agriculture Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) to explore two Pan-African scenarios for fish sector growth: a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and a high-growth scenario for capture fisheries and aquaculture with accompanying strong gross domestic product growth (HIGH). Post-model analysis was used to estimate employment and aquaculture investment requirements for the sector in Africa. Africa's fish sector is estimated to support 20.7 million jobs in 2030, and 21.6 million by 2050 under the BAU. Approximately 2.6 people will be employed indirectly along fisheries and aquaculture value chains for every person directly employed in the fish production stage. Under the HIGH scenario, total employment in Africa's fish food system will reach 58.0 million jobs, representing 2.4% of total projected population in Africa by 2050. Aquaculture production value is estimated to achieve US$ 3.3 billion and US$ 20.4 billion per year under the BAU and HIGH scenarios by 2050, respectively. Farm-gate investment costs for the three key inputs (fish feeds, farm labor, and fish seed) to achieve the aquaculture volumes projected by 2050 are estimated at US$ 1.8 billion per year under the BAU and US$ 11.6 billion per year under the HIGH scenario. Sustained investments are critical to sustain capture fisheries and support aquaculture growth for food system transformation towards healthier diets.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Economic
Fulltext Effect of the Prevalence of HIV/AIDS and the Life Expectancy Rate on Economic Growth in SSA Countries: Difference GMM Approach

Waziri SI, Mohamed Nor N, Raja Abdullah NM, Adamu P

Glob J Health Sci, 2016;8(4):212-20.
PMID: 26573032 DOI: 10.5539/gjhs.v8n4p212

The productivity of countries around the globe is adversely affected by the health-related problems of their labour force. This study examined the effect of the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) and life expectancy on the economic growth of 33 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over a period of 11 years (2002-2012). The study employed a dynamic panel approach as opposed to the static traditional approach utilised in the literature. The dynamic approach became eminent because of the fact that HIV/AIDS is a dynamic variable as its prevalence today depends on the previous years. The result revealed that HIV/AIDS is negatively correlated with economic growth in the region, with a coefficient of 0.014, and significant at the 1% level. That is, a 10% increase in HIV/AIDS prevalence leads to a 0.14% decrease in the GDP of the region. Tackling HIV/AIDS is therefore imperative to the developing Sub-Saharan African region and all hands must be on deck to end the menace globally.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Economic*
Pharmacoeconomic evaluation of micafungin versus caspofungin as definitive therapy for candidaemia and invasive candidiasis (IC) in Turkey

Neoh CF, Senol E, Kara A, Dinleyici EC, Turner SJ, Kong DCM

Eur J Clin Microbiol Infect Dis, 2018 Mar;37(3):537-544.
PMID: 29185089 DOI: 10.1007/s10096-017-3147-9

Micafungin was shown to be as efficacious as caspofungin in treating patients with candidaemia and invasive candidiasis (IC). However, it remains unknown if micafungin or caspofungin is a cost-effective definitive therapy for candidaemia and IC in Turkey. The present study aimed to determine the economic impact of using micafungin versus caspofungin for treatment of candidaemia and IC in the Turkish setting. A decision analytic model was constructed and was populated with data (i.e. transition probabilities, duration of initial antifungal treatment, reasons for treatment failure, percentage of patients who stepped down to oral fluconazole, and duration on oral fluconazole) obtained from a published randomised clinical trial. Cost inputs were derived from the latest Turkish resources while data that were not readily available in the literature were estimated by expert panels. One-way sensitivity analyses, threshold analyses, scenario analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. Caspofungin (€2693) incurred a lower total cost than micafungin (€4422), with a net cost saving of €1729 per treated patient. Drug acquisition cost was the main cost driver for both study arms. The model outcome was robust over wide variations (of ±100.0% from the base case value) for all input parameters except for micafungin drug cost and the duration of initial treatment with micafungin. Caspofungin appears to be a cost-saving option in treating candidaemia and IC from the Turkish hospital perspective.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Economic*
The relations among child quality, family structure, and the value of the mother's time in Malaysia

Leppel K

Malay Econ Rev, 1982 Oct;27(2):61-70.
PMID: 12266446

PIP: A model of the determinants of child quality and of the value of a woman's time is developed and tested using data from the Malaysian Family Life Survey of 1976-1977. Child quality is measured by educational attainment; factors influencing the value of the mother's time include size and age composition of household, family income, education, and hours worked. The results indicate that size and age composition of household affect a woman's asking wage. However, more data are needed before the effects of family structure on schooling can be measured with confidence.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Economic*
Incorporating adherence in cost-effectiveness analyses of asthma: a systematic review

Chongmelaxme B, Chaiyakunapruk N, Dilokthornsakul P

J Med Econ, 2019 Jun;22(6):554-566.
PMID: 30663455 DOI: 10.1080/13696998.2019.1572014

Aims: Non-adherence is associated with poor clinical outcomes among patients with asthma. While cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is increasingly used to inform value assessment of the interventions, most do not take into account adherence in the analyses. This study aims to: (1) Understand the extent of studies considering adherence as part of the economic analyses, and (2) summarize the methods of incorporating adherence in the economic models. Materials and methods: A literature search was performed from the inception to February 2018 using four databases: PubMed, EMBASE, NHS EED, and the Tufts CEA registry. Decision model-based CEA of asthma were identified. Outcomes of interest were the number of studies incorporating adherence in the economic models, and the incorporating methods. All data were extracted using a standardized data collection form. Results: From 1,587 articles, 23 studies were decision model-based CEA of asthma, of which four CEA (17.4%) incorporated adherence in the analyses. Only the method of incorporating adherence by adjusting treatment effectiveness according to adherence levels was demonstrated in this review. Two approaches were used to derive the associations between adherence and effectiveness. The first approach was to apply a mathematical formula, developed by an expert panel, and the second was to extrapolate the associations from previous published studies. The adherence-adjusted effectiveness was then incorporated in the economic models. Conclusions: A very low number of CEA of asthma incorporated adherence in the analyses. All the CEA adjusted treatment effectiveness according to adherence levels, applied to the economic models.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Economic*
Increased work pace is unprofitable: a beef-cutting case study

Vogel K, Karltun J, Yeow PH, Eklund J

Meat Sci, 2015 Jul;105:81-8.
PMID: 25828161 DOI: 10.1016/j.meatsci.2015.03.009

The beef industry worldwide is showing a trend towards increased cutting pace aimed at higher profits. However, prior research in the duck meat industry suggested that a higher cutting pace reduced quality and yield, leading to losses. This study aimed to test this hypothesis by investigating the effects of varying beef-cutting paces on yield, quality and economy. A field experiment was conducted on six workers cutting beef fillet, sirloin and entrecôte. Three types of paces were sequentially tested: Baseline (i.e., status quo), 'Quantity focus' (i.e., pace required to maximise quantity) and 'Quality focus' (i.e., pace required to minimise errors). The results showed a significant drop in yield, increased rate of quality deficiency and economic losses with the change to 'Quantity focus' (from Baseline and 'Quality focus') for all meat types. Workers supported these results and also added health problems to the list. The results confirmed that an increased cutting pace is unprofitable.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Economic*
Cost-utility analysis of antiviral use under pandemic influenza using a novel approach - linking pharmacology, epidemiology and heath economics

Wu DBC, Chaiyakunapruk N, Pratoomsoot C, Lee KKC, Chong HY, Nelson RE, et al.

Epidemiol Infect, 2018 03;146(4):496-507.
PMID: 29446343 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268818000158

Simulation models are used widely in pharmacology, epidemiology and health economics (HEs). However, there have been no attempts to incorporate models from these disciplines into a single integrated model. Accordingly, we explored this linkage to evaluate the epidemiological and economic impact of oseltamivir dose optimisation in supporting pandemic influenza planning in the USA. An HE decision analytic model was linked to a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) - dynamic transmission model simulating the impact of pandemic influenza with low virulence and low transmissibility and, high virulence and high transmissibility. The cost-utility analysis was from the payer and societal perspectives, comparing oseltamivir 75 and 150 mg twice daily (BID) to no treatment over a 1-year time horizon. Model parameters were derived from published studies. Outcomes were measured as cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the integrated model's robustness. Under both pandemic scenarios, compared to no treatment, the use of oseltamivir 75 or 150 mg BID led to a significant reduction of influenza episodes and influenza-related deaths, translating to substantial savings of QALYs. Overall drug costs were offset by the reduction of both direct and indirect costs, making these two interventions cost-saving from both perspectives. The results were sensitive to the proportion of inpatient presentation at the emergency visit and patients' quality of life. Integrating PK/PD-EPI/HE models is achievable. Whilst further refinement of this novel linkage model to more closely mimic the reality is needed, the current study has generated useful insights to support influenza pandemic planning.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Economic*
The optimal number of heifer calves to be reared as dairy replacements

Mohd Nor N, Steeneveld W, Mourits MC, Hogeveen H

J Dairy Sci, 2015 Feb;98(2):861-71.
PMID: 25497803 DOI: 10.3168/jds.2014-8329

Dairy farmers often keep almost all their newborn heifer calves despite the high cost of rearing. By rearing all heifer calves, farmers have more security and retain flexibility to cope with the uncertainty in the availability of replacement heifers in time. This uncertainty is due to mortality or infertility during the rearing period and the variation in culling rate of lactating cows. The objective of this study is to provide insight in the economically optimal number of heifer calves to be reared as replacements. A herd-level stochastic simulation model was developed specific for this purpose with a herd of 100 dairy cows; the biological part of the model consisted of a dairy herd unit and rearing unit for replacement heifers. The dairy herd unit included variation in the number of culled dairy cows. The rearing unit incorporated variation in the number of heifers present in the herd by including uncertainty in mortality and variation in fertility. The dairy herd unit and rearing unit were linked by the number of replacement heifers and culled dairy cows. When not enough replacement heifers were available to replace culled dairy cows, the herd size was temporarily reduced, resulting in an additional cost for the empty slots. When the herd size reached 100 dairy cows, the available replacement heifers that were not needed were sold. It was assumed that no purchase of cows and calves occurred. The optimal percentage of 2-wk-old heifer calves to be retained was defined as the percentage of heifer calves that minimized the average net costs of rearing replacement heifers. In the default scenario, the optimal retention was 73% and the total net cost of rearing was estimated at €40,939 per herd per year. This total net cost was 6.5% lower than when all heifer calves were kept. An earlier first-calving age resulted in an optimal retention of 75%, and the net costs of rearing were €581 per herd per year lower than in the default scenario. For herds with a lower or higher culling rate of dairy cows (10 or 40% instead of 25% in the default scenario), it was optimal to retain 35 or 100% of the heifer calves per year. Herds that had a lower or higher cost of empty slots (€50 or €120 per month instead of €82 in the default scenario) had an optimal retention of 49 or 83% per year; the optimal retention percentage was dependent on farm and herd characteristics. For Dutch dairy farming conditions, it was not optimal to keep all heifer calves.

Matched MeSH terms: Models, Economic

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