METHODS: Weekly influenza surveillance data for 2006 to 2011 were obtained from Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. Weekly rates of influenza activity were based on the percentage of all nasopharyngeal samples collected during the year that tested positive for influenza virus or viral nucleic acid on any given week. Monthly positivity rates were then calculated to define annual peaks of influenza activity in each country and across countries.
FINDINGS: Influenza activity peaked between June/July and October in seven countries, three of which showed a second peak in December to February. Countries closer to the equator had year-round circulation without discrete peaks. Viral types and subtypes varied from year to year but not across countries in a given year. The cumulative proportion of specimens that tested positive from June to November was > 60% in Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam. Thus, these tropical and subtropical countries exhibited earlier influenza activity peaks than temperate climate countries north of the equator.
CONCLUSION: Most southern and south-eastern Asian countries lying north of the equator should consider vaccinating against influenza from April to June; countries near the equator without a distinct peak in influenza activity can base vaccination timing on local factors.
METHODS: The pharmacology module consisted of a pharmacokinetic distribution of oseltamivir carboxylate daily area under the concentration-time curve at steady state (simulated for 75 mg and 150 mg twice daily regimens for 5 days) and a pharmacodynamic distribution of viral shedding duration obtained from phase II influenza inoculation data. The epidemiological module comprised a susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR) model to which drug effect on the basic reproductive number (R0 ), a measure of transmissibility, was linked by reduction of viral shedding duration. The number of infected patients per population of 100 000 susceptible individuals was simulated for a series of pandemic scenarios, varying oseltamivir dose, R0 (1.9 vs. 2.7), and drug uptake (25%, 50%, and 80%). The number of infected patients for each scenario was entered into the health economics module, a decision analytic model populated with branch probabilities, disease utility, costs of hospitalized patients developing complications, and case-fatality rates. Change in quality-adjusted life years was determined relative to base case.
RESULTS: Oseltamivir 75 mg relative to no treatment reduced the median number of infected patients, increased change in quality-adjusted life years by deaths averted, and was cost-saving under all scenarios; 150 mg relative to 75 mg was not cost effective in low transmissibility scenarios but was cost saving in high transmissibility scenarios.
CONCLUSION: This methodological study demonstrates proof of concept that the disciplines of pharmacology, disease epidemiology and health economics can be linked in a single quantitative framework.
OBJECTIVE: With a descriptive epidemiological framing, we assessed whether recent historical patterns of regional influenza burden are reflected in the observed heterogeneity in COVID-19 cases across regions of the world.
METHODS: Weekly surveillance data reported by the World Health Organization from January 2017 to December 2019 for influenza and from January 1, 2020 through October 31, 2020, for COVID-19 were used to assess seasonal and temporal trends for influenza and COVID-19 cases across the seven World Bank regions.
RESULTS: In regions with more pronounced influenza seasonality, COVID-19 epidemics have largely followed trends similar to those seen for influenza from 2017 to 2019. COVID-19 epidemics in countries across Europe, Central Asia, and North America have been marked by a first peak during the spring, followed by significant reductions in COVID-19 cases in the summer months and a second wave in the fall. In Latin America and the Caribbean, COVID-19 epidemics in several countries peaked in the summer, corresponding to months with the highest influenza activity in the region. Countries from regions with less pronounced influenza activity, including South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, showed more heterogeneity in COVID-19 epidemics seen to date. However, similarities in COVID-19 and influenza trends were evident within select countries irrespective of region.
CONCLUSIONS: Ecological consistency in COVID-19 trends seen to date with influenza trends suggests the potential for shared individual, structural, and environmental determinants of transmission. Using a descriptive epidemiological framework to assess shared regional trends for rapidly emerging respiratory pathogens with better studied respiratory infections may provide further insights into the differential impacts of nonpharmacologic interventions and intersections with environmental conditions. Ultimately, forecasting trends and informing interventions for novel respiratory pathogens like COVID-19 should leverage epidemiologic patterns in the relative burden of past respiratory pathogens as prior information.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: Whole genome sequencing of three strains of bifidobacteria was performed on the MiSeq platform (Illumina Inc., USA). The genomes were annotated using the Prokka v. 1.11 utility and RAST genomic server. The individual genetic determinants were searched using the ResFinder 3.2, PathogenFinder, PlasmidFinder, RAST, and Bagel 4 software. The antiviral activity of the strains against influenza A viruses was studied using MDCK cells (Madin-Darby canine kidney cells), the epidemic strain of influenza A/Lipetsk/1V/2018 (H1N1 pdm09) (EPI_ISL_332798), the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus A/common gull/Saratov/1676/2018 (H5N6) strain (EPI_ISL_336925), and neutral red vital dye.
RESULTS: The genomes of all studied strains contained determinants responsible for utilization of carbohydrates of plant origin; the genes of key enzymes for the synthesis of tryptophan and folic acid are present in the genomes of B. longum 379 and B. bifidum 791. A feature of the B. bifidum 791 genome is the presence of determinants responsible for the synthesis of thermostable type I bacteriocins - flavucin and lasso peptide. The B. bifidum 791 strain was found to show pronounced antiviral activity against both the strains of influenza A, the supernatant of which suppressed viral replication in vitro up to a dilution of 1:8, and the cells inhibited viral reproduction up to a concentration of 6·106 CFU/ml.
CONCLUSION: The analysis of complete genomes of B. longum 379, B. bifidum 1, and B. bifidum 791 showed features that determine their strain-specific properties, the findings on which were previously made empirically based on indirect signs. In the genomes of B. longum 379 and B. bifidum 791 strains, in contrast to B. bifidum 1 strain, key enzymes for the synthesis of tryptophan and folic acid were found. These substances have an impact on the human body in many ways, including having a thymoleptic effect (reducing emotional stress, irritability, anxiety, eliminating lethargy, apathy, melancholy, anxiety) and regulating cognitive activity. The presence of determinants responsible for the synthesis of thermostable type I bacteriocins in the genome of B. bifidum 791 strain determines its pronounced antiviral activity.
METHODS: From October 2004 to May 2015, respiratory specimens were received from patients with respiratory tract infection suspicion. Influenza detection was carried out by either cell culture isolation, immunofluorescence or PCR-based assays. A RT-PCR was performed to distinguish both lineages by agarose gel electrophoresis. Whole genome amplification was performed using the universal primer set by Zhou et al. in 2012, and subsequently sequenced using Roche 454 GS Junior platform. Bioinformatic analysis was performed to characterise the sequences with B/Malaysia/2506/2007 and B/Florida/4/2006 corresponding sequences as reference of (B/VIC) and (B/YAM), respectively.
RESULTS: A total of 118 FLUBV (75 FLUBV/VIC and 43 FLUBV/YAM), from 2004 to 2006, 2008-2011 and 2012-2015 seasons, were studied. The whole genome of 58 FLUBV/VIC and 42 FLUBV/YAM viruses was successfully amplified. Based on HA sequences, most FLUBV/VIC viruses (37; 64%) belonged to clade 1A (B/Brisbane/60/2008) except to 11 (19%), which fell within clade 1B (B/HongKong/514/2009) and 10 (17%) to B/Malaysia/2506/2004. Nine (20%) FLUBV/YAM viruses belonged to clade 2 (B/Massachusetts/02/2012), 18 (42%) to clade 3 (B/Phuket/3073/2013) and 15 (38%) fell within Florida/4/2006. Numerous intra-lineage reassortments in PB2, PB1, NA and NS were found in 2 2010-2011 viruses. An important inter-lineage reassortment event from 2008 to 2009 (11), 2010-2011 (26) and 2012-2013 (3) FLUBV/VIC (clade 1) strains to FLUBV/YAM (clade 3) was found, in addition to 1 reassortant NS in 2010-2011 B/VIC virus.
CONCLUSIONS: Intra- and inter-lineage reassortment episodes were revealed by WGS. While PB2-PB1-HA remained in complex, NP and NS reassortant viruses were found in both lineages. Despite reassorment events are not often, the characterisation only by HA and NA sequences might be underestimating their detection.
METHODS: A total of six conserved peptides representing B- and T-cell epitopes of Influenza A were identified and they were formulated in either incomplete Freund's adjuvant containing CpG ODN 1826 or being encapsulated in PLGA nanoparticles for the evaluation of immunogenicity in BALB/c mice.
RESULTS: The self-adjuvanting PLGA nanoparticles encapsulating the six conserved peptides were capable of eliciting the highest levels of IgG and IFN- γ producing cells. In addition, the immunogenicity of the six peptides encapsulated in PLGA nanoparticles showed greater humoral and cellular mediated immune responses elicited by the mixture of six naked peptides formulated in incomplete Freund's adjuvant containing CpG ODN 1826 in the immunized mice. Peptide 3 from the mixture of six peptides was found to exert necrotic effect on CD3+ T-cells and this finding indicated that peptide 3 should be removed from the nanovaccine formulation.
CONCLUSION: The study demonstrated the self-adjuvanting properties of the PLGA nanoparticles as a delivery system without the need for incorporation of toxic and costly conventional adjuvants in multi-epitope peptide-based vaccines.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: During the period from 16 to 21 March 2007, outbreak investigations and active case finding were carried out among residents and nursing staff at the welfare home. Interviews and medical notes review were conducted to obtain epidemiological and clinical data. Hospitalised patients were tested for respiratory pathogens. Further genetic studies were also carried out on positive respiratory samples.
RESULTS: The overall clinical attack rate was 9.4% (17/180) in residents and 6.7% (2/30) in staff. All infected residents and staff had received influenza immunisation. Fifteen residents were hospitalised, with 2 developing severe complications. Genetic sequencing revealed that the outbreak strain had an 8.2% amino acid difference from B/Malaysia/2506/2004, the 2006 southern hemisphere influenza vaccine strain, which the residents and staff had earlier received.
CONCLUSIONS: A mismatch between the vaccine and circulating influenza virus strains can result in an outbreak in a highly immunised LTCF resident population. Active surveillance for acute respiratory illness in LTCFs could be implemented for rapid detection of antigenic drift. Enhanced infection control and other preventive measures can then be deployed in a timely manner to mitigate the effect of any outbreaks.