THE RISING HEALTH TOLL OF A CHANGING CLIMATE: In 2023, the world saw the highest global temperatures in over 100 000 years, and heat records were broken in all continents through 2022. Adults older than 65 years and infants younger than 1 year, for whom extreme heat can be particularly life-threatening, are now exposed to twice as many heatwave days as they would have experienced in 1986–2005 (indicator 1.1.2). Harnessing the rapidly advancing science of detection and attribution, new analysis shows that over 60% of the days that reached health-threatening high temperatures in 2020 were made more than twice as likely to occur due to anthropogenic climate change (indicator 1.1.5); and heat-related deaths of people older than 65 years increased by 85% compared with 1990–2000, substantially higher than the 38% increase that would have been expected had temperatures not changed (indicator 1.1.5). Simultaneously, climate change is damaging the natural and human systems on which people rely for good health. The global land area affected by extreme drought increased from 18% in 1951–60 to 47% in 2013–22 (indicator 1.2.2), jeopardising water security, sanitation, and food production. A higher frequency of heatwaves and droughts in 2021 was associated with 127 million more people experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity compared with 1981–2010 (indicator 1.4), putting millions of people at risk of malnutrition and potentially irreversible health effects. The changing climatic conditions are also putting more populations at risk of life-threatening infectious diseases, such as dengue, malaria, vibriosis, and West Nile virus (indicator 1.3). Compounding these direct health impacts, the economic losses associated with global heating increasingly harm livelihoods, limit resilience, and restrict the funds available to tackle climate change. Economic losses from extreme weather events increased by 23% between 2010–14 and 2018–22, amounting to US$264 billion in 2022 alone (indicator 4.1.1), whereas heat exposure led to global potential income losses worth $863 billion (indicators 1.1.4 and 4.1.3). Labour capacity loss resulting from heat exposure affected low and medium Human Development Index (HDI) countries the most, exacerbating global inequities, with potential income losses equivalent to 6·1% and 3·8% of their gross domestic product (GDP), respectively (indicator 4.1.3). The multiple and simultaneously rising risks of climate change are amplifying global health inequities and threatening the very foundations of human health. Health systems are increasingly strained, and 27% of surveyed cities declared concerns over their health systems being overwhelmed by the impacts of climate change (indicator 2.1.3). Often due to scarce financial resources and low technical and human capacity, the countries most vulnerable to climate impacts also face the most challenges in achieving adaptation progress, reflecting the human risks of an unjust transition. Only 44% of low HDI countries and 54% of medium HDI countries reported high implementation of health emergency management capacities in 2022, compared with 85% of very high HDI countries (indicator 2.2.5). Additionally, low and medium HDI countries had the highest proportion of cities not intending to undertake a climate change risk assessment in 2021 (12%; indicator 2.1.3). These inequalities are aggravated by the persistent failure of the wealthiest countries to deliver the promised modest annual sum of $100 billion to support climate action in those countries defined as developing within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Consequently, those countries that have historically contributed the least to climate change are bearing the brunt of its health impacts—both a reflection and a direct consequence of the structural inequities that lie within the root causes of climate change.

THE HUMAN COSTS OF PERSISTENT INACTION: The growing threats experienced to date are early signs and symptoms of what a rapidly changing climate could mean for the health of the world’s populations. With 1337 tonnes of CO2 emitted each second, each moment of delay worsens the risks to people’s health and survival. In this year’s report, new projections reveal the dangers of further delays in action, with every tracked health dimension worsening as the climate changes. If global mean temperature continues to rise to just under 2°C, annual heat-related deaths are projected to increase by 370% by midcentury, assuming no substantial progress on adaptation (indicator 1.1.5). Under such a scenario, heat-related labour loss is projected to increase by 50% (indicator 1.1.4), and heatwaves alone could lead to 524·9 million additional people experiencing moderate-to-severe food insecurity by 2041–60, aggravating the global risk of malnutrition. Life-threatening infectious diseases are also projected to spread further, with the length of coastline suitable for Vibrio pathogens expanding by 17–25%, and the transmission potential for dengue increasing by 36–37% by midcentury. As risks rise, so will the costs and challenges of adaptation. These estimates provide some indication of what the future could hold. However, poor accounting for non-linear responses, tipping points, and cascading and synergistic interactions could render these projections conservative, disproportionately increasing the threat to the health of populations worldwide.

A WORLD ACCELERATING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION: The health risks of a 2°C hotter world underscore the health imperative of accelerating climate change action. With limits to adaptation drawing closer, ambitious mitigation is paramount to keep the magnitude of health hazards within the limits of the capacity of health systems to adapt. Yet years of scientific warnings of the threat to people’s lives have been met with grossly insufficient action, and policies to date have put the world on track to almost 3°C of heating. The 2022 Lancet Countdown report highlighted the opportunity to accelerate the transition away from health-harming fossil fuels in response to the global energy crisis. However, data this year show a world that is often moving in the wrong direction. Energy-related CO2 emissions increased by 0·9% to a record 36·8 Gt in 2022 (indicator 3.1.1), and still only 9·5% of global electricity comes from modern renewables (mainly solar and wind energy), despite their costs falling below that of fossil fuels. Concerningly, driven partly by record profits, oil and gas companies are further reducing their compliance with the Paris Agreement: the strategies of the world’s 20 largest oil and gas companies as of early 2023 will result in emissions surpassing levels consistent with the Paris Agreement goals by 173% in 2040—an increase of 61% from 2022 (indicator 4.2.6). Rather than pursuing accelerated development of renewable energy, fossil fuel companies allocated only 4% of their capital investment to renewables in 2022. Meanwhile, global fossil fuel investment increased by 10% in 2022, reaching over $1 trillion (indicator 4.2.1). The expansion of oil and gas extractive activities has been supported through both private and public financial flows. Across 2017–21, the 40 banks that lend most to the fossil fuel sector collectively invested $489 billion annually in fossil fuels (annual average), with 52% increasing their lending from 2010–16. Simultaneously, in 2020, 78% of the countries assessed, responsible for 93% of all global CO2 emissions, still provided net direct fossil fuels subsidies totalling $305 billion, further hindering fossil fuel phase-out (indicator 4.2.4). Without a rapid response to course correct, the persistent use and expansion of fossil fuels will ensure an increasingly inequitable future that threatens the lives of billions of people alive today.

THE OPPORTUNITY TO DELIVER A HEALTHY FUTURE FOR ALL: Despite the challenges, data also expose the transformative health benefits that could come from the transition to a zero-carbon future, with health professionals playing a crucial role in ensuring these gains are maximised. Globally, 775 million people still live without electricity, and close to 1 billion people are still served by health-care facilities without reliable energy. With structural global inequities in the development of, access to, and use of clean energy, only 2·3% of electricity in low HDI countries comes from modern renewables (against 11% in very high HDI countries), and 92% of households in low HDI countries still rely on biomass fuels to meet their energy needs (against 7·5% in very high HDI countries; indicators 3.1.1 and 3.1.2). In this context, the transition to renewables can enable access to decentralised clean energy and, coupled with interventions to increase energy efficiency, can reduce energy poverty and power high quality health-supportive services. By reducing the burning of dirty fuels (including fossil fuels and biomass), such interventions could help avoid a large proportion of the 1·9 million deaths that occur annually from dirty-fuel-derived, outdoor, airborne, fine particulate matter pollution (PM2·5; indicator 3.2.1), and a large proportion of the 78 deaths per 100 000 people associated with exposure to indoor air pollution (indicator 3.2.2). Additionally, the just development of renewable energy markets can generate net employment opportunities with safer, more locally available jobs. Ensuring countries, particularly those facing high levels of energy poverty, are supported in the safe development, deployment, and adoption of renewable energy is key to maximising health gains and preventing unjust extractive industrial practices that can harm the health and livelihoods of local populations and widen health inequities. With fossil fuels accounting for 95% of road transport energy (indicator 3.1.3), interventions to enable and promote safe active travel and zero-emission public transport can further deliver emissions reduction, promote health through physical activity, and avert many of the 460 000 deaths caused annually by transport-derived PM2·5 pollution (indicator 3.2.1), and some of the 3·2 million annual deaths related to physical inactivity. People-centred, climate-resilient urban redesign to improve building energy efficiency, increase green and blue spaces, and promote sustainable cooling, can additionally prevent heat-related health harms, avoid air-conditioning-derived emissions (indicator 2.2.2), and provide direct physical and mental health benefits. Additionally, food systems are responsible for 30% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with 57% of agricultural emissions in 2020 being derived from the production of red meat and milk (indicator 3.3.1). Promoting and enabling equitable access to affordable, healthy, low-carbon diets that meet local nutritional and cultural requirements can contribute to mitigation, while preventing many of the 12·2 million deaths attributable to suboptimal diets (indicator 3.3.2). The health community could play a central role in securing these benefits, by delivering public health interventions to reduce air pollution, enabling and supporting active travel and healthier diets, and promoting improvements in the environmental conditions and commercial activities that define health outcomes. Importantly, the health sector can lead by example and transition to sustainable, resource-efficient, net-zero emission health systems, thereby preventing its 4·6% contribution to global GHG emissions, with cascading impacts ultimately affecting the broader economy (indicator 3.4). Some encouraging signs of progress offer a glimpse of the enormous human benefits that health-centred action could render. Deaths attributable to fossil-fuel-derived air pollution have decreased by 15·7% since 2005, with 80% of this reduction being the result of reduced coal-derived pollution. Meanwhile the renewable energy sector expanded to a historical high of 12·7 million employees in 2021 (indicator 4.2.2); and renewable energy accounted for 90% of the growth in electricity capacity in 2022 (indicator 3.1.1). Supporting this, global clean energy investment increased by 15% in 2022, to $1·6 trillion, exceeding fossil fuel investment by 61% (indicator 4.2.1); and lending to the green energy sector rose to $498 billion in 2021, approaching fossil fuel lending (indicator 4.2.7). Scientific understanding of the links between health and climate change is rapidly growing, and although coverage lags in some of the most affected regions, over 3000 scientific articles covered this topic in 2022 (indicators 5.3.1 and 5.3.2). Meanwhile, the health dimensions of climate change are increasingly acknowledged in the public discourse, with 24% of all climate change newspaper articles in 2022 referring to health, just short of the 26% in 2020 (indicator 5.1). Importantly, international organisations are increasingly engaging with the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation (indicator 5.4.2), and governments increasingly acknowledge this link, with 95% of updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement now referring to health—up from 73% in 2020 (indicator 5.4.1). These trends signal what could be the start of a life-saving transition.

A DEBILITATED FIRST LINE OF DEFENCE: With the worsening health impacts of climate change compounding other coexisting crises, populations worldwide increasingly rely on health systems as their first line of defence. However, just as the need for healthcare rises, health systems worldwide are debilitated by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy and cost-of-living crises. Urgent action is therefore needed to strengthen health-system resilience and to prevent a rapidly escalating loss of lives and to prevent suffering in a changing climate. However, only 48 (51%) of 95 countries reported having assessed their climate change adaptation needs (indicator 2.1.1) and, even after the profound impacts of COVID-19, only 60 (63%) countries reported a high to very high implementation status for health emergency management in 2021 (indicator 2.2.4). The scarcity of proactive adaptation is shown in the response to extreme heat. Despite the local cooling and overall health benefits of urban greenspaces, only 277 (27%) of 1038 global urban centres were at least moderately green in 2021 (indicator 2.2.3), and the number of households with air conditioning increased by 66% from 2000 to 2020, a maladaptive response that worsens the energy crisis and further increases urban heat, air pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. As converging crises further threaten the world’s life-supporting systems, rapid, decisive, and coherent intersectoral action is essential to protect human health from the hazards of the rapidly changing climate.

HEALTH AT THE MERCY OF FOSSIL FUELS: The year 2022 marks the 30th anniversary of the signing of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, in which countries agreed to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change and its deleterious effects on human health and welfare. However, little meaningful action has since followed. The carbon intensity of the global energy system has decreased by less than 1% since the UNFCCC was established, and global electricity generation is still dominated by fossil fuels, with renewable energy contributing to only 8·2% of the global total (indicator 3.1). Simultaneously, the total energy demand has risen by 59%, increasing energy-related emissions to a historical high in 2021. Current policies put the world on track to a catastrophic 2·7°C increase by the end of the century. Even with the commitments that countries set in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) updated up until November 2021, global emissions could be 13·7% above 2010 levels by 2030—far from the 43% decrease from current levels required to meet Paris Agreement goals and keep temperatures within the limits of adaptation. Fossil fuel dependence is not only undermining global health through increased climate change impacts, but also affects human health and wellbeing directly, through volatile and unpredictable fossil fuel markets, frail supply chains, and geopolitical conflicts. As a result, millions of people do not have access to the energy needed to keep their homes at healthy temperatures, preserve food and medication, and meet the seventh Sustainable Development Goal (to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all). Without sufficient support, access to clean energy has been particularly slow in low HDI countries, and only 1·4% of their electricity came from modern renewables (mostly wind and solar power) in 2020 (indicator 3.1). An estimated 59% of healthcare facilities in low and middle-income countries still do not have access to the reliable electricity needed to provide basic care. Meanwhile, biomass accounts for as much as 31% of the energy consumed in the domestic sector globally, mostly from traditional sources—a proportion that increases to 96% in low HDI countries (indicator 3.2). The associated burden of disease is substantial, with the air in people’s homes exceeding WHO guidelines for safe concentrations of small particulate air pollution (PM2·5) in 2020 by 30-fold on average in the 62 countries assessed (indicator 3.2). After 6 years of improvement, the number of people without access to electricity increased in 2020 as a result of the socioeconomic pressures of the COVID-19 pandemic. The current energy and cost-of-living crises now threaten to reverse progress toward affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy, further undermining the socioeconomic determinants of health. Simultaneously, oil and gas companies are registering record profits, while their production strategies continue to undermine people’s lives and wellbeing. An analysis of the production strategies of 15 of the world’s largest oil and gas companies, as of February 2022, revealed they exceed their share of emissions consistent with 1·5°C of global heating (indicator 4.2.6) by 37% in 2030 and 103% in 2040, continuing to undermine efforts to deliver a low carbon, healthy, liveable future. Aggravating this situation even further, governments continue to incentivise fossil fuel production and consumption: 69 (80%) of 86 countries reviewed had net-negative carbon prices (ie, provided a net subsidy to fossil fuels) for a net total of US$400 billion in 2019, allocating amounts often comparable with or even exceeding their total health budgets (indicator 4.2.4). Simultaneously, wealthier countries failed to meet their commitment of mobilising the considerably lower sum of $100 billion annually by 2020 as agreed at the 2009 Copenhagen Accord to support climate action in “developing countries”, and climate efforts are being undercut by a profound scarcity of funding (indicator 2.1.1). The impacts of climate change on global economies, together with the recession triggered by COVID-19 and worsened by geopolitical instability, could paradoxically further reduce the willingness of countries to allocate the funds needed to enable a just climate transition.

A HEALTH-CENTRED RESPONSE FOR A THRIVING FUTURE: The world is at a critical juncture. With countries facing concurrent crises, the implementation of long-term emissions-reduction policies risks being deflected or defeated by challenges wrongly perceived as more immediate. Addressing each of the concurrent crises in isolation risks alleviating one, while worsening another. Such a situation is emerging from the response to COVID-19, which has so far has not delivered the green recovery that the health community proposed, and, on the contrary, is aggravating climate change-related health risks. Less than one third of $3·11 trillion allocated to COVID-19 economic recovery is likely to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or air pollution, with the net effect likely to increase emissions. The COVID-19 pandemic affected climate action at the city level, and 239 (30%) of 798 cities reported that COVID-19 reduced financing available for climate action (indicator 2.1.3). As countries search for alternatives to Russian oil and gas, many continue to favour the burning of fossil fuels, with some even turning back to coal. Shifts in global energy supplies threaten to increase fossil fuel production. Even if implemented as a temporary transition, these responses could reverse progress on air quality improvement, irreversibly push the world off track from meeting the commitments set out in the Paris Agreement, and guarantee a future of accelerated climate change that threatens human survival. On the contrary, in this pivotal moment, a health-centred response to the current crises would still provide the opportunity for a low-carbon, resilient future, which not only avoids the health harms of accelerated climate change, but also delivers improved health and wellbeing through the associated co-benefits of climate action. Such response would see countries promptly shifting away from fossil fuels, reducing their dependence on fragile international oil and gas markets, and accelerating a just transition to clean energy sources. A health-centred response would reduce the likelihood of the most catastrophic climate change impacts, while improving energy security, creating an opportunity for economic recovery, and offering immediate health benefits. Improvements in air quality would help to prevent the 1·2 million deaths resulting from exposure to fossil fuel-derived ambient PM2·5 in 2020 alone (indicator 3.3), and a health-centred energy transition would enhance low-carbon travel and increase urban green spaces, promoting physical activity, and improving physical and mental health. In the food sector, an accelerated transition to balanced and more plant-based diets would not only help reduce the 55% of agricultural sector emissions coming from red meat and milk production (indicator 3.5.1), but also prevent up to 11·5 million diet-related deaths annually (indicator 3.5.2), and substantially reduce the risk of zoonotic diseases. These health-focused shifts would reduce the burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases, reducing the strain on overwhelmed health-care providers. Importantly, accelerating climate change adaptation would lead to more robust health systems, minimising the negative impacts of future infectious disease outbreaks and geopolitical conflicts, and restoring the first line of defence of global populations.

EMERGING GLIMMERS OF HOPE: Despite decades of insufficient action, emerging, albeit few, signs of change provide some hope that a health-centred response might be starting to emerge. Individual engagement with the health dimensions of climate change, essential to drive and enable an accelerated response, increased from 2020 to 2021 (indicator 5.2), and coverage of health and climate change in the media reached a new record high in 2021, with a 27% increase from 2020 (indicator 5.1). This engagement is also reflected by country leaders, with a record 60% of 194 countries focusing their attention on the links between climate change and health in the 2021 UN General Debate, and with 86% of national updated or new NDCs making references to health (indicator 5.4). At the city level, local authorities are progressively identifying risks of climate change on the health of their populations (indicator 2.1.3), a first step to delivering a tailored response that strengthens local health systems. Although the health sector is responsible for 5·2% of all global emissions (indicator 3.6), it has shown impressive climate leadership, and 60 countries had committed to transitioning to climate-resilient and/or low-carbon or net-zero carbon health systems as part of the COP26 Health Programme, as of July, 2022. Signs of change are also emerging in the energy sector. Although total clean energy generation remains grossly insufficient, record high levels were reached in 2020 (indicator 3.1). Zero-carbon sources accounted for 80% of investment in electricity generation in 2021 (indicator 4.2.1), and renewable energies have reached cost parity with fossil fuel energies. As some of the highest emitting countries attempt to cut their dependence on oil and gas in response to the war in Ukraine and soaring energy prices, many are focusing on increasing renewable energy generation, raising hopes for a health-centred response. However, increased awareness and commitments should be urgently translated into action for hope to turn into reality.

THE RECORD-BREAKING HUMAN COSTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: Data in this year’s report show that people all around the world are facing record-breaking threats to their wellbeing, health, and survival from the rapidly changing climate. Of the 15 indicators monitoring climate change-related health hazards, exposures, and impacts, ten reached concerning new records in their most recent year of data. Heat-related mortality of people older than 65 years increased by a record-breaking 167%, compared with the 1990s, 102 percentage points higher than the 65% that would have been expected without temperature rise (indicator 1.1.5). Heat exposure is also increasingly affecting physical activity and sleep quality, in turn affecting physical and mental health. In 2023, heat exposure put people engaging in outdoor physical activity at risk of heat stress (moderate or higher) for a record high of 27·7% more hours than on average in the 1990s (indicator 1.1.2) and led to a record 6% more hours of sleep lost in 2023 than the average during 1986–2005 (indicator 1.1.4). People worldwide are also increasingly at risk from life-threatening extreme weather events. Between 1961–90 and 2014–23, 61% of the global land area saw an increase in the number of days of extreme precipitation (indicator 1.2.3), which in turn increases the risk of flooding, infectious disease spread, and water contamination. In parallel, 48% of the global land area was affected by at least 1 month of extreme drought in 2023, the second largest affected area since 1951 (indicator 1.2.2). The increase in drought and heatwave events since 1981–2010 was, in turn, associated with 151 million more people experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity across 124 countries assessed in 2022, the highest recorded value (indicator 1.4.2). The hotter and drier weather conditions are increasingly favouring the occurrence of sand and dust storms. This weather-environmental phenomenon contributed to a 31% increase in the number of people exposed to dangerously high particulate matter concentrations between 2003–07 and 2018–22 (indicator 1.2.4). Meanwhile, changing precipitation patterns and rising temperatures are favouring the transmission of deadly infectious diseases such as dengue, malaria, West Nile virus-related illness, and vibriosis, putting people at risk of transmission in previously unaffected locations (indicators 1.3.1–1.3.4). Compounding these impacts, climate change is affecting the social and economic conditions on which health and wellbeing depend. The average annual economic losses from weather-related extreme events increased by 23% from 2010–14 to 2019–23, to US$227 billion (a value exceeding the gross domestic product [GDP] of about 60% of the world’s economies; indicator 4.1.1). Although 60·5% of losses in very high Human Development Index (HDI) countries were covered by insurance, the vast majority of those in countries with lower HDI levels were uninsured, with local communities bearing the brunt of the physical and economic losses (indicator 4.1.1). Extreme weather and climate change-related health impacts are also affecting labour productivity, with heat exposure leading to a record high loss of 512 billion potential labour hours in 2023, worth $835 billion in potential income losses (indicators 1.1.3 and 4.1.3). Low and medium HDI countries were most affected by these losses, which amounted to 7·6% and 4·4% of their GDP, respectively (indicator 4.1.3). With the most underserved communities most affected, these economic impacts further reduce their capacity to cope with and recover from the growing impacts of climate change, thereby amplifying global inequities. Concerningly, multiple hazards revealed by individual indicators are likely to have simultaneous compounding and cascading impacts on the complex and inter-connected human systems that sustain good health, disproportionately threatening people’s health and survival with every fraction of a degree of increase in global mean temperature. Despite years of monitoring exposing the imminent health threats of climate inaction, the health risks people face have been exacerbated by years of delays in adaptation, which have left people ill-protected from the growing threats of climate change. Only 68% of countries reported high-to-very-high implementation of legally mandated health emergency management capacities in 2023, of which just 11% were low HDI countries (indicator 2.2.5). Moreover, only 35% of countries reported having health early warning systems for heat-related illness, whereas 10% did so for mental and psychosocial conditions (indicator 2.2.1). Scarcity of financial resources was identified as a key barrier to adaptation, including by 50% of the cities that reported they were not planning to undertake climate change and health risk assessments (indicator 2.1.3). Indeed, adaptation projects with potential health benefits represented just 27% of all the Green Climate Fund’s adaptation funding in 2023, despite a 137% increase since 2021 (indicator 2.2.4). With universal health coverage still unattained in most countries, financial support is needed to strengthen health systems and ensure that they can protect people from growing climate change-related health hazards. The unequal distribution of financial resources and technical capacity is leaving the most vulnerable populations further unprotected from the growing health risks.

FUELLING THE FIRE: As well as exposing the inadequacy of adaptation efforts to date, this year’s report reveals a world veering away from the goal of limiting temperature rise to 1·5°C, with concerning new records broken across indicators monitoring greenhouse gas emissions and the conditions that enable them. Far from declining, global energy-related CO2 emissions reached an all-time high in 2023 (indicator 3.1.1). Oil and gas companies are reinforcing the global dependence on fossil fuels and—partly fuelled by the high energy prices and windfall profits of the global energy crisis—most are further expanding their fossil fuel production plans. As of March, 2024, the 114 largest oil and gas companies were on track to exceed emissions consistent with 1·5°C of heating by 189% in 2040, up from 173% 1 year before (indicator 4.2.2). As a result, their strategies are pushing the world further off track from meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement, further threatening people’s health and survival. Although renewable energy could provide power to remote locations, its adoption is lagging, particularly in the most vulnerable countries. The consequences of this delay reflect the human impacts of an unjust transition. Globally, 745 million people still lack access to electricity and are facing the harms of energy poverty on health and wellbeing. The burning of polluting biomass (eg, wood or dung) still accounts for 92% of the energy used in the home by people in low HDI countries (indicator 3.1.2), and only 2·3% of electricity in these countries comes from clean renewables, compared with 11·6% in very high HDI countries (indicators 3.1.1). This persistent burning of fossil fuel and biomass led to at least 3·33 million deaths from outdoor fine particulate matter (PM2·5) air pollution globally in 2021 alone (indicator 3.2.1), and the domestic use of dirty solid fuels caused 2·3 million deaths from indoor air pollution in 2020 across 65 countries analysed (indicator 3.2.2). Compounding the growth in energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, almost 182 million hectares of forests were lost between 2016 and 2022 (indicator 3.4), reducing the world’s natural capacity to capture atmospheric CO2. In parallel, the consumption of red meat and dairy products, which contributed to 11·2 million deaths attributable to unhealthy diets in 2021 (indicator 3.3.2), has led to a 2·9% increase in agricultural greenhouse gas emissions since 2016 (indicator 3.3.1). Health systems themselves, although essential to protect people’s health, are also increasingly contributing to the problem. Greenhouse gas emissions from health care have increased by 36% since 2016, making health systems increasingly unprepared to operate in a net zero emissions future and pushing health care further from its guiding principle of doing no harm (indicator 3.5). The growing accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is pushing the world to a future of increasingly dangerous health hazards and reducing the chances of survival of vulnerable people all around the globe.

HEALTH-THREATENING FINANCIAL FLOWS: With the availability of financial resources a key barrier to tackling climate change, a rapid growth in predictable and equitable investment is urgently needed to avoid the most dangerous impacts of climate change. A growing body of literature shows that the economic benefits of a transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions will far exceed the costs of inaction. Healthier, more resilient populations will further support more prosperous and sustainable economies (indicators 4.1.2–4.1.4). However, although funding to enable potentially life-saving climate change adaptation and mitigation activities remains scarce, substantial financial resources are being allocated to activities that harm health and perpetuate a fossil fuel-based economy. The resulting reliance on fossil fuel energy has meant many countries faced sharp increases in energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting disruption of fossil fuel supplies. To keep energy affordable to local populations, many governments resorted to increasing their explicit fossil fuel subsidies. Consequently, 84% of countries studied still operated net negative carbon prices (explicit net fossil fuel subsidies) in 2022, for a record high net total of $1·4 trillion (indicator 4.3.3), with the sums involved often comparable to countries’ total health budgets. In addition, although clean energy investment grew by 10% globally in 2023—exceeding fossil fuel investment by 73%—considerable regional disparities exist. Clean energy investment is 38% lower than fossil fuel spending in emerging market and developing economies outside China. Clean energy spending in these countries only accounted for 17·4% of the global total. Moreover, investment in energy efficiency and end use, essential for a just transition, decreased by 1·3% in 2023 (indicator 4.3.1). The resulting expansion of fossil fuel assets is increasingly jeopardising the economies on which people’s livelihoods depend. On the current trajectory, the world already faces potential global income losses ranging from 11% to 29% by 2050. The number of fossil fuel industry employees reached 11·8 million in 2022, increasing the size of a workforce whose employment cannot be sustained in a world that avoids the most catastrophic human impacts of climate change (indicator 4.2.1). Meanwhile, ongoing investments in coal power have pushed the value of coal-fired power generation assets that risk becoming stranded within 10 years (between 2025 and 2034) in a 1·5°C trajectory to a cumulative total of $164·5 billion—a value that will increase if coal investments persist (indicator 4.2.3). The prioritisation of fossil fuel-based systems means most countries remain ill-prepared for the vital transition to zero greenhouse gas emission economies. As a result of an unjust transition, the risk is unequally distributed: preparedness scores for the transition to a net zero greenhouse gas economy were below the global average in all countries with a low HDI, 96% of those with a medium HDI, and 84% of those with a high HDI, compared with just 7% of very high HDI countries (indicator 4.2.4).

DEFINING THE HEALTH PROFILE OF PEOPLE WORLDWIDE: Following decades of delays in climate change action, avoiding the most severe health impacts of climate change now requires aligned, structural, and sustained changes across most human systems, including energy, transportation, agriculture, food, and health care. Importantly, a global transformation of financial systems is required, shifting resources away from the fossil fuel-based economy towards a zero emissions future. Putting people’s health at the centre of climate change policy making is key to ensuring this transition protects wellbeing, reduces health inequities, and maximises health gains. Some indicators reveal incipient progress and important opportunities for delivering this health-centred transformation. As of December, 2023, 50 countries reported having formally assessed their health vulnerabilities and adaptation needs, up from 11 the previous year, and the number of countries that reported having a Health National Adaptation Plan increased from four in 2022 to 43 in 2023 (indicators 2.1.1 and 2.1.2). Additionally, 70% of 279 public health education institutions worldwide reported providing education in climate and health in 2023, essential to build capacities for health professionals to help shape this transition (indicator 2.2.6). Regarding the energy sector, the global share of electricity from clean modern renewables reached a record high of 10·5% in 2021 (indicator 3.1.1); clean energy investment exceeded fossil fuel investment by 73% in 2023 (indicator 4.3.1); and renewable energy-related employment has grown 35·6% since 2016, providing healthier and more sustainable employment opportunities than those in the fossil fuel industry (indicator 4.2.1). Importantly, mostly as a result of coal phase-down in high and very high HDI countries, deaths attributable to outdoor PM2·5 from fossil fuel combustion decreased by 6·9% between 2016 and 2021 (indicator 3.2.1), showing the life-saving potential of coal phase-out. Important progress was made within international negotiations, which opened new opportunities to protect health in the face of climate change. After years of leadership from WHO on climate change and health, its Fourteenth General Programme of Work, adopted in May, 2024, made responding to climate change its first strategic priority. Within climate negotiations themselves, the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) featured the first health thematic day in 2023: 151 countries endorsed the COP28 United Arab Emirates Declaration on Climate and Health, and the Global Goal on Adaptation set a specific health target. The outcome of the first Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement also recognised the right to health and a healthy environment, urging parties to take further health adaptation efforts, and opened a new opportunity for human survival, health, and wellbeing to be prioritised in the updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) due in 2025. The pending decision of how the Loss and Damage fund will be governed and the definition of the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance during COP29 provide further opportunities to secure the financial support crucial for a healthy net zero transition. Although still insufficient to protect people’s health from climate change, these emerging signs of progress help open new opportunities to deliver a healthy, prosperous future. However, much remains to be done.

METHODS: We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values.

FINDINGS: 292,982 (95% UI 261,017-327,792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376,034 (343,483-407,574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0·3% (-1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2·7% (-3·9 to -1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2-0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1-1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6-3·6) in Iceland.

INTERPRETATION: Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa.

METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.

FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.

INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.