BACKGROUND: To estimate the amount of regret and weights of harm by omission and commission during therapeutic decisions for smear-negative pulmonary Tuberculosis.
METHODS: An interviewer-administered survey was done among young physicians in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh with a previously used questionnaire. The physicians were asked to estimate probabilities of morbidity and mortality related with disease and treatment and intuitive weights of omission and commission for treatment of suspected pulmonary Tuberculosis. A comparison with weights based on literature data was made.
RESULTS: A total of 242 physicians completed the interview. Their mean age was 28 years, 158 (65.3%) were males. Median probability (%) of mortality and morbidity of disease was estimated at 65% (inter quartile range [IQR] 50-75) and 20% (IQR 8-30) respectively. Median probability of morbidity and mortality in case of occurrence of side effects was 15% (IQR 10-30) and 8% (IQR 5-20) respectively. Probability of absolute treatment mortality was 0.7% which was nearly eight times higher than 0.09% reported in the literature data. The omission vs. commission harm ratios based on intuitive weights, weights calculated with literature data, weights calculated with intuitive estimates of determinants adjusted without and with regret were 3.0 (1.4-5.0), 16 (11-26), 33 (11-98) and 48 (11-132) respectively. Thresholds based on pure regret and hybrid model (clinicians' intuitive estimates and regret) were 25 (16.7-41.7), and 2(0.75-7.5) respectively but utility-based thresholds for clinicians' estimates and literature data were 2.9 (1-8.3) and 5.9 (3.7-7.7) respectively.
CONCLUSION: Intuitive weight of harm related to false-negatives was estimated higher than that to false-positives. The mortality related to treatment was eightfold overestimated. Adjusting expected utility thresholds for subjective regret had little effect.
We describe a child with acute fever and abdominal pain who developed rash and edema of extremities. Blood test revealed thrombocytopenia, lymphopenia, positive dengue-IgM, and hypoalbuminemia with elevated procalcitonin. Right pleural effusion revealed from chest x-ray. Diagnosed as dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) grade 1, however, at 7th day of illness, altered mental status, respiratory and circulatory failure occurred. Laboratory examination showed marked thrombocytopenia, transaminitis, metabolic acidosis, elevated D-dimer, decrease fibrinogen, and elevated cardiac marker (troponin I and CKMB). The patient then developed catecholamine-resistant shock and did not survive after 48 hours. Although rapid test of SARS CoV-2 infection was negative, rapid deterioration with some unusual clinical feature suggest multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) related to SARS-CoV-2 infection. This case raises an awareness of MIS-C that clinical features resemble dengue infection.