METHODS: Following ethical approval, we conducted hospital-based dengue surveillance for one year in three referral hospitals. Suspected cases aged 9-25 years underwent dengue virological confirmation by RT-PCR and/or NS1 Ag ELISA at a central laboratory. Two age- and geography-matched hospitalized non-dengue case-controls were recruited for a traditional CC study. Suspected cases testing negative were test-negative controls. Socio-demographic, risk factor and routine laboratory data were collected. Logistic regression models were used to estimate associations between confirmed dengue and risk factors.
RESULTS: We recruited 327 subjects; 155 were suspected of dengue. The planned sample size was not met. 124 (80%) of suspected cases were dengue-confirmed; seven were assessed as severe. Three had missing RT-PCR results; the study recruited 28 test-negative controls. Only 172 matched controls could be recruited; 90 cases were matched with ≥1 controls. Characteristics of cases and controls were mostly similar. By CC design, two variables were significant risk factors for hospitalized dengue: recent household dengue contact (OR: 54, 95% CI: 7.3-397) and recent neighbourhood insecticidal fogging (OR: 2.1; 95% CI: 1.3-3.6). In the TN design, no risk factors were identified. In comparison with gold-standard diagnostics, routine tests performed poorly.
CONCLUSIONS: The CC design may be more appropriate than the TN design for hospitalized dengue vaccine effectiveness studies. Selection bias in case control selection could be minimized by protocol changes more easily than increasing TN design control numbers, because early-stage dengue diagnosis in endemic countries is highly specific. MREC study approval: (39)KKM/NIHSEC/P16-1334.
METHODS: This retrospective population-based analysis estimated crude and standardized incidences of VLD and NLD in twelve hospitals in Brazil (n = 3), Mexico (n = 3), and Malaysia (n = 6) over a 1-year period before the introduction of the tetravalent dengue vaccine. Catchment areas were estimated using publicly available population census information and administrative data. The denominator population for incidence rates was calculated, and sensitivity analyses assessed the impact of important assumptions.
RESULTS: Total cases adjudicated as definite VLD were 5, 57, and 56 in Brazil, Mexico, and Malaysia, respectively. Total cases adjudicated as definite NLD were 103, 29, and 26 in Brazil, Mexico, and Malaysia, respectively. Crude incidence rates of cases adjudicated as definite VLD in Brazil, Mexico, and Malaysia were 1.17, 2.60, and 1.48 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. Crude incidence rates of cases adjudicated as definite NLD in Brazil, Mexico, and Malaysia were 4.45, 1.32, and 0.69 per 100,000 person-years, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: Background incidence estimates of VLD and NLD obtained in Mexico, Brazil, and Malaysia could provide context for cases occurring after the introduction of the tetravalent dengue vaccine.