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Fulltext COVID-19 dynamics and immune response: Linking within-host and between-host dynamics

Adewole MO, Faniran TS, Abdullah FA, Ali MKM

Chaos Solitons Fractals, 2023 Jun 26.
PMID: 38620099 DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113722

The global impact of COVID-19 has led to the development of numerous mathematical models to understand and control the pandemic. However, these models have not fully captured how the disease's dynamics are influenced by both within-host and between-host factors. To address this, a new mathematical model is proposed that links these dynamics and incorporates immune response. The model is compartmentalized with a fractional derivative in the sense of Caputo-Fabrizio, and its properties are studied to show a unique solution. Parameter estimation is carried out by fitting real-life data, and sensitivity analysis is conducted using various methods. The model is then numerically implemented to demonstrate how the dynamics within infected hosts drive human-to-human transmission, and various intervention strategies are compared based on the percentage of averted deaths. The simulations suggest that a combination of medication to boost the immune system, prevent infected cells from producing the virus, and adherence to COVID-19 protocols is necessary to control the spread of the virus since no single intervention strategy is sufficient.
Fulltext Modeling the Dynamics of COVID-19 in Nigeria

Adewole MO, Onifade AA, Abdullah FA, Kasali F, Ismail AIM

Int J Appl Comput Math, 2021;7(3):67.
PMID: 33898652 DOI: 10.1007/s40819-021-01014-5

To understand the dynamics of COVID-19 in Nigeria, a mathematical model which incorporates the key compartments and parameters regarding COVID-19 in Nigeria is formulated. The basic reproduction number is obtained which is then used to analyze the stability of the disease-free equilibrium solution of the model. The model is calibrated using data obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and key parameters of the model are estimated. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to investigate the influence of the parameters in curtailing the disease. Using Pontryagin's maximum principle, time-dependent intervention strategies are optimized in order to suppress the transmission of the virus. Numerical simulations are then used to explore various optimal control solutions involving single and multiple controls. Our results suggest that strict intervention effort is required for quick suppression of the disease.
Fulltext A mathematical study on a fractional COVID-19 transmission model within the framework of nonsingular and nonlocal kernel

Okposo NI, Adewole MO, Okposo EN, Ojarikre HI, Abdullah FA

Chaos Solitons Fractals, 2021 Nov;152:111427.
PMID: 36569784 DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111427

In this work, a mathematical model consisting of a compartmentalized coupled nonlinear system of fractional order differential equations describing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 is studied. The fractional derivative is taken in the Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo sense. The basic dynamic properties of the fractional model such as invariant region, existence of equilibrium points as well as basic reproduction number are briefly discussed. Qualitative results on the existence and uniqueness of solutions via a fixed point argument as well as stability of the model solutions in the sense of Ulam-Hyers are furnished. Furthermore, the model is fitted to the COVID-19 data circulated by Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and the two-step Adams-Bashforth method incorporating the noninteger order parameter is used to obtain an iterative scheme from which numerical results for the model can be generated. Numerical simulations for the proposed model using Adams-Bashforth iterative scheme are presented to describe the behaviors at distinct values of the fractional index parameter for of each of the system state variables. It was shown numerically that the value of fractional index parameter has a significant effect on the transmission behavior of the disease however, the infected population (the exposed, the asymptomatic infectious, the symptomatic infectious) shrinks with time when the basic reproduction number is less than one irrespective of the value of fractional index parameter.
Fulltext Compatible extension of the (G'/G)-expansion approach for equations with conformable derivative

Al-Shawba AA, Abdullah FA, Azmi A, Akbar MA, Nisar KS

Heliyon, 2023 May;9(5):e15717.
PMID: 37206045 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e15717

In this study, the compatible extensions of the (G'/G)-expansion approach and the generalized (G'/G)-expansion scheme are proposed to generate scores of radical closed-form solutions of nonlinear fractional evolution equations. The originality and improvements of the extensions are confirmed by their application to the fractional space-time paired Burgers equations. The application of the proposed extensions highlights their effectiveness by providing dissimilar solutions for assorted physical forms in nonlinear science. In order to explain some of the wave solutions geometrically, we represent them as two- and three-dimensional graphs. The results demonstrate that the techniques presented in this study are effective and straightforward ways to address a variety of equations in mathematical physics with conformable derivative.
Fulltext Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on imaging case volumes in King Abdullah University Hospitals (KAUH)

Gharaibeh M, El-Obeid E, Khasawneh R, Karrar M, Salman M, Farah A, et al.

Front Med (Lausanne), 2023;10:1103083.
PMID: 36844230 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2023.1103083

OBJECTIVE: COVID-19 has an increased burden on the delivery of services because the measures taken by the governments forced hospitals to cancel most of their elective procedures and led to the shutting down of outpatient clinics. This study aimed to evaluate the impact COVID-19 pandemic on the volume of radiology exams based on patient service locations and imaging modality in the North of Jordan.
METHODS: The imaging case volumes that were performed at the King Abdullah University Hospital (KAUH), Jordan, from 1 January 2020 to 8 May 2020, were retrospectively collected and compared to those from 1 January 2019 to 28 May 2019, to determine the impact of the pandemic of COVID-19 on the volume of radiological examinations. The 2020 study period was chosen to cover the peak of COVID-19 cases and to record the effects on imaging case volumes.
RESULTS: A total of 46,194 imaging case volumes were performed at our tertiary center in 2020 compared to 65,441 imaging cases in 2019. Overall, the imaging case volume in 2020 decreased by 29.4% relative to the same period in 2019. The imaging case volumes decreased for all imaging modalities relative to 2019. The number of nuclear images showed the highest decline (41.0%) in 2020, followed by the number of ultrasounds (33.2%). Interventional radiology was the least affected imaging modality by this decline, with about a 22.9% decline.
CONCLUSION: The number of imaging case volumes decreased significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated lockdown. The outpatient service location was the most affected by this decline. Effective strategies must be adopted to avoid the aforementioned effect on the healthcare system in future pandemics.
Use of traditional and complementary medicine in Malaysia: a baseline study

Siti ZM, Tahir A, Farah AI, Fazlin SM, Sondi S, Azman AH, et al.

Complement Ther Med, 2009 Oct-Dec;17(5-6):292-9.
PMID: 19942109 DOI: 10.1016/j.ctim.2009.04.002

The increasing popularity and use of traditional and complementary medicine (TCAM) in both developed and developing countries, including Malaysia, have raised significant public health policy issues. However, currently, there is a paucity of baseline data on such usage by the Malaysian community.
Fulltext International survey on complications of religious fasting after metabolic and bariatric surgery

Kermansaravi M, Husain FA, Bashir A, Valizadeh R, Abbas SI, Abouzeid T, et al.

Sci Rep, 2023 Nov 18;13(1):20189.
PMID: 37980363 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-47673-w

Religious fasting in Ramadan the 9th month of the lunar year is one of five pillars in Islam and is practiced for a full month every year. There may be risks with fasting in patients with a history of metabolic/bariatric surgery (MBS). There is little published evidence on the possible complications during fasting and needs stronger recommendations and guidance to minimize them. An international survey was sent to surgeons to study the types of complications occurring during religious fasting in patients with history of MBS to evaluate the risk factors to manage and prepare more evidence-based recommendations. In total, 21 centers from 11 countries participated in this survey and reported a total of 132 patients with complications occurring during religious fasting after MBS. The mean age of patients with complications was 36.65 ± 3.48 years and mean BMI was 43.12 ± 6.86 kg/m2. Mean timing of complication occurring during fasting after MBS was 14.18 months. The most common complications were upper GI (gastrointestinal) symptoms including [gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), abdominal pain, and dyspepsia], marginal ulcers and dumping syndrome in 24% (32/132), 8.3% (11/132) and 23% (31/132) patients respectively. Surgical management was necessary in 4.5% of patients presenting with complications (6/132) patients due to perforated marginal or peptic ulcer in Single Anastomosis Duodenoileostomy with Sleeve gastrectomy (SADI-S), one anastomosis gastric bypass (OAGB) and sleeve gastrectomy (SG), obstruction at Jejunojenostomy after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) (1/6) and acute cholecystitis (1/6). Patients after MBS should be advised about the risks while fasting including abdominal pain, dehydration, and peptic ulcer disease exacerbation, and a thorough review of their medications is warranted to minimize complications.