AIM: To identify and critically appraise existing clinical prediction models of extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-EKP) infection or colonization.
METHODS: Electronic databases, reference lists, and citations were searched from inception to April 2018. Papers were included in any language describing the development or validation, or both, of models and scores to predict the risk of ESBL-EKP infection or colonization.
FINDINGS: In all, 1795 references were screened, of which four articles were included in the review. The included studies were carried out in different geographical locations with differing study designs, and inclusion and exclusion criteria. Most if not all studies lacked external validation and blinding of reviewers during the evaluation of the predictor variables and outcome. All studies excluded missing data and most studies did not report the number of patients excluded due to missing data. Fifteen predictors of infection or colonization with ESBL-EKP were identified. Commonly included predictors were previous antibiotic use, previous hospitalization, transfer from another healthcare facility, and previous procedures (urinary catheterization and invasive procedures).
CONCLUSION: Due to limitations and variations in the study design, clinicians would have to take these differences into consideration when deciding on how to use these models in clinical practice. Due to lack of external validation, the generalizability of these models remains a question. Therefore, further external validation in local settings is needed to confirm the usefulness of these models in supporting decision-making.
METHODS: A retrospective observational study was performed on consecutive adult cases of ESBL and AmpC bacteremia at the Alfred Hospital from 2014 through April 2018.
RESULTS: Among 110 patients with ESBL (88.2%) and AmpC (14.5%) bacteremia episodes, 96.4% had comorbidities such as hematological malignancy (30%). Approximately 45% were on immunosuppressive drugs, while 69% had recent antibiotic exposure. Over 84% of bacteremias were hospital acquired or healthcare associated. Urinary tract was the main source of infection (40%) with E. coli being the commonest organism (66.4%). The isolates were least resistant to gentamicin (21.8%), which was often appropriately used in empirical therapy. About 34% of patients presented with severe sepsis or shock. The 30-day mortality rate was 20% with no correlation with inappropriate empirical antibiotics (52%). There was no significant mortality difference between carbapenem use in empirical and definitive therapy. Respiratory source [OR 11.77, 95% CI 1.30-106.85; p = 0.03], severe sepsis or shock [OR 5.17, 95% CI 1.37-19.55; p = 0.02] and inappropriate definitive therapy [OR 27.93, 95%CI 3.69-211.35; p = 0.001] were independent predictors for mortality.
CONCLUSION: The choice and appropriateness of empirical therapy were not associated with mortality in ESBL and AmpC bacteremia. Prudent use of carbapenem is reasonable with gentamicin as alternative. Emphasis should be on prompt resuscitation in severe sepsis and early detection of ESBL and AmpC to facilitate appropriate switch to definitive therapy.