METHODS: In this geospatial modelling analysis, we developed an integrated database containing information on the distribution of Nipah virus infections in humans and animals from 1998 to 2021. We conducted phylodynamic analysis to examine the evolution and migration pathways of the virus and meta-analyses to estimate the adjusted case-fatality rate. We used two boosted regression tree models to identify the potential ecological drivers of Nipah virus occurrences in spillover events and endemic areas, and mapped potential risk areas for Nipah virus endemicity.
FINDINGS: 749 people and eight bat species across nine countries were documented as being infected with Nipah virus. On the basis of 66 complete genomes of the virus, we identified two clades-the Bangladesh clade and the Malaysia clade-with the time of the most recent common ancestor estimated to be 1863. Adjusted case-fatality rates varied widely between countries and were higher for the Bangladesh clade than for the Malaysia clade. Multivariable meta-regression analysis revealed significant relationships between case-fatality rate estimates and viral clade (p=0·0021), source country (p=0·016), proportion of male patients (p=0·036), and travel time to health-care facilities (p=0·036). Temperature-related bioclimate variables and the probability of occurrence of Pteropus medius were important contributors to both the spillover and the endemic infection models.
INTERPRETATION: The suitable niches for Nipah virus are more extensive than previously reported. Future surveillance efforts should focus on high-risk areas informed by updated projections. Specifically, intensifying zoonotic surveillance efforts, enhancing laboratory testing capacity, and implementing public health education in projected high-risk areas where no human cases have been reported to date will be crucial. Additionally, strengthening wildlife surveillance and investigating potential modes of transmission in regions with documented human cases is needed.
FUNDING: The Key Research and Development Program of China.
RESULTS: Several reaction conditions of the LAMP reaction were optimized to ensure efficient amplification of the target DNA. The sensitivity of the developed LAMP assay obtained using a pure Leptospira culture was 2 × 104 copies of genomic DNA per reaction (equivalent to 0.1 ng) for a 40-minute reaction time. No cross-reactions were observed in the LAMP reaction against a series of non-leptospiral bacteria, indicating a specific reaction. The applicability of the LAMP assay was demonstrated on human blood and urine specimens collected from suspected leptospirosis patients and rat kidney specimens collected from suspected leptospirosis outbreak areas and high-risk areas. The developed LAMP assay demonstrated a higher detection rate for leptospiral DNA compared with the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay, possibly due to the presence of inhibitory substances, especially in rat kidney specimens, to which the PCR method is more susceptible. The present findings also highlight the importance of urine sample collection from patients for routine monitoring of the disease.
CONCLUSIONS: In short, the developed LAMP assay can serve as a feasible alternative tool for the diagnosis of leptospirosis and be used for epidemiological and environmental surveillance of the disease, considering its robustness, rapidity, sensitivity, and specificity, as demonstrated in this study.
METHODS: Malaria is a notifiable infection in Malaysia. The data used in this study were extracted from the Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health Malaysia, contributed by the hospitals and health clinics throughout Malaysia. The population data used in this study was extracted from the Department of Statistics Malaysia. Data analyses were performed using Microsoft Excel. Data used for mapping are available at EPSG:4326 WGS84 CRS (Coordinate Reference System). Shapefile was obtained from igismap. Mapping and plotting of the map were performed using QGIS.
RESULTS: Between 2000 and 2007, human malaria contributed 100% of reported malaria and 18-46 deaths per year in Malaysia. Between 2008 and 2017, indigenous malaria cases decreased from 6071 to 85 (98.6% reduction), while during the same period, zoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi cases increased from 376 to 3614 cases (an 861% increase). The year 2018 marked the first year that Malaysia did not report any indigenous cases of malaria caused by human malaria parasites. However, there was an increasing trend of P. knowlesi cases, with a total of 4131 cases reported in that year. Although the increased incidence of P. knowlesi cases can be attributed to various factors including improved diagnostic capacity, reduction in human malaria cases, and increase in awareness of P. knowlesi, more than 50% of P. knowlesi cases were associated with agriculture and plantation activities, with a large remainder proportion linked to forest-related activities.
CONCLUSIONS: Malaysia has entered the elimination phase of malaria control. Zoonotic malaria, however, is increasing exponentially and becoming a significant public health problem. Improved inter-sectoral collaboration is required in order to develop a more integrated effort to control zoonotic malaria. Local political commitment and the provision of technical support from the World Health Organization will help to create focused and concerted efforts towards ensuring the success of the National Malaria Elimination Strategic Plan.