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Battling COVID-19 pandemic waves in six South-East Asian countries: A real-time consensus review

Rampal L, Liew BS, Choolani M, Ganasegeran K, Pramanick A, Vallibhakara SA, et al.

Med J Malaysia, 2020 11;75(6):613-625.
PMID: 33219168

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19 has caused unprecedented public health concerns, triggering an escalated burden to health systems worldwide. The pandemic has altered people's living norms, yet coherently escalating countries' socioeconomic instability. This real-time consensus review aims to describe the epidemiological trends of COVID-19 pandemic across six South-East Asian nations, and countryspecific experiences on pandemic preparedness, responses and interventions.
METHODS: Consensus-driven approach between authors from the six selected countries was applied. Country specific policy documents, official government media statements, mainstream news portals, global statistics databases and latest published literature available between January-October 2020 were utilised for information retrieval. Situational and epidemiological trend analyses were conducted. Country-specific interventions and challenges were described. Based on evidence appraised, a descriptive framework was considered through a consensus. The authors subsequently outlined the lessons learned, challenges ahead and interventions that needs to be in place to control the pandemic.
RESULTS: The total number of people infected with COVID-19 between 1 January and 16 November 2020 had reached 48,520 in Malaysia, 58,124 in Singapore, 3,875 in Thailand, 470,648 in Indonesia, 409,574 in Philippines and 70,161 in Myanmar. The total number of people infected with COVID- 19 in the six countries from January to 31 October 2020 were 936,866 cases and the mortality rate was 2.42%. Indonesia had 410,088 cases with a mortality rate of 3.38%, Philippines had 380,729 cases with a mortality rate of 1.90%, Myanmar had 52,706 cases with a mortality rate of 2.34%, Thailand had 3,780 cases with a mortality rate of 1.56%, Malaysia had 31,548 cases with a mortality rate of 0.79%, and Singapore had 58,015 cases with a mortality rate of 0.05% over the 10- month period. Each country response varied depending on its real-time situations based on the number of active cases and economic situation of the country.
CONCLUSION: The number of COVID-19 cases in these countries waxed and waned over the 10-month period, the number of cases may be coming down in one country, and vice versa in another. Each country, if acting alone, will not be able to control this pandemic. Sharing of information and resources across nations is the key to successful control of the pandemic. There is a need to reflect on how the pandemic affects individuals, families and the community as a whole. There are many people who cannot afford to be isolated from their families and daily wage workers who cannot afford to miss work. Are we as a medical community, only empathising with our patients or are we doing our utmost to uphold them during this time of crisis? Are there any other avenues which can curb the epidemic while reducing its impact on the health and socio-economic condition of the individual, community and the nation?

Matched MeSH terms: Pandemics/statistics & numerical data*
Fulltext COVID-19 in the elderly: A Malaysian perspective

Mustaffa N, Lee SY, Mohd Nawi SN, Che Rahim MJ, Chee YC, Muhd Besari A, et al.

J Glob Health, 2020 Dec;10(2):020370.
PMID: 33214887 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.10.020370
Matched MeSH terms: Pandemics/statistics & numerical data*
Fulltext Characteristics of COVID-19 epidemic and control measures to curb transmission in Malaysia

Ng CFS, Seposo XT, Moi ML, Tajudin MABA, Madaniyazi L, Sahani M

Int J Infect Dis, 2020 Dec;101:409-411.
PMID: 33075527 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.027

The first wave of COVID-19 epidemic began in late January in Malaysia and ended with a very small final size. The second wave of infections broke out in late February and grew rapidly in the first 3 weeks. Authorities in the country responded quickly with a series of control strategies collectively known as the Movement Control Order (MCO) with different levels of intensity matching the progression of the epidemic. We examined the characteristics of the second wave and discussed the key control strategies implemented in the country. In the second wave, the epidemic doubled in size every 3.8 days (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.3, 4.5) in the first month and decayed slowly after that with a halving time of approximately 3 weeks. The time-varying reproduction number Rt peaked at 3.1 (95% credible interval: 2.7, 3.5) in the 3rd week, declined sharply thereafter and stayed below 1 in the last 3 weeks of April, indicating low transmissibility approximately 3 weeks after the MCO. Experience of the country suggests that adaptive triggering of distancing policies combined with a population-wide movement control measure can be effective in suppressing transmission and preventing a rebound.

Matched MeSH terms: Pandemics/statistics & numerical data
Fulltext The Use of System Dynamics Methodology in Building a COVID-19 Confirmed Case Model

Mohd Yusoff MI

Comput Math Methods Med, 2020;2020:9328414.
PMID: 33224268 DOI: 10.1155/2020/9328414

Researchers used a hybrid model (a combination of health resource demand model and disease transmission model), Bayesian model, and susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model to predict health service utilization and deaths and mixed-effect nonlinear regression. Further, they used the mixture model to predict the number of confirmed cases and deaths or to predict when the curve would flatten. In this article, we show, through scenarios developed using system dynamics methodology, besides close to real-world results, the detrimental effects of ignoring social distancing guidelines (in terms of the number of people infected, which decreased as the percentage of noncompliance decreased).

Matched MeSH terms: Pandemics/statistics & numerical data*
Fulltext How Prepared Was Pakistan for the COVID-19 Outbreak?

Salman M, Mustafa ZU, Khan TM, Shehzadi N, Hussain K

Disaster Med Public Health Prep, 2020 Jun;14(3):e44-e45.
PMID: 32662386 DOI: 10.1017/dmp.2020.247
Matched MeSH terms: Pandemics/statistics & numerical data*
Recovery of endoscopy services in the era of COVID-19: recommendations from an international Delphi consensus

Bhandari P, Subramaniam S, Bourke MJ, Alkandari A, Chiu PWY, Brown JF, et al.

Gut, 2020 11;69(11):1915-1924.
PMID: 32816921 DOI: 10.1136/gutjnl-2020-322329

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on provision of endoscopy services globally as staff and real estate were repurposed. As we begin to recover from the pandemic, a cohesive international approach is needed, and guidance on how to resume endoscopy services safely to avoid unintended harm from diagnostic delays. The aim of these guidelines is to provide consensus recommendations that clinicians can use to facilitate the swift and safe resumption of endoscopy services. An evidence-based literature review was carried out on the various strategies used globally to manage endoscopy during the COVID-19 pandemic and control infection. A modified Delphi process involving international endoscopy experts was used to agree on the consensus statements. A threshold of 80% agreement was used to establish consensus for each statement. 27 of 30 statements achieved consensus after two rounds of voting by 34 experts. The statements were categorised as pre-endoscopy, during endoscopy and postendoscopy addressing relevant areas of practice, such as screening, personal protective equipment, appropriate environments for endoscopy and infection control precautions, particularly in areas of high disease prevalence. Recommendations for testing of patients and for healthcare workers, appropriate locations of donning and doffing areas and social distancing measures before endoscopy are unique and not dealt with by any other guidelines. This international consensus using a modified Delphi method to produce a series of best practice recommendations to aid the safe resumption of endoscopy services globally in the era of COVID-19.

Matched MeSH terms: Pandemics/statistics & numerical data
Awareness and perception of seasonal influenza (Flu) among health science and Non-Health science university students in Pakistan: A nationwide survey

Bukhsh A, Hussain S, Rehman IU, Mallhi TH, Khan YH, Khaliel AM, et al.

Pak J Pharm Sci, 2019 Jul;32(4(Supplementary)):1789-1796.
PMID: 31680074

Seasonal influenza is a highly contagious viral respiratory disorder. Prior knowledge of flu among general community is of paramount importance in order to mitigate its growing burden. In a pandemic, young adults are more likely to be infected increasing the potential for universities to be explosive disease outbreak centers. In this context, current study aims to assess the knowledge and perception of flu among university students from health sciences (HS) and non-HS background. Questionnaire-based cross sectional (August-December 2015) study was conducted among students of 65 universities across Pakistan. The students willing to participate were requested to fill out the self-administered questionnaire and responses were recorded and descriptively analyzed by SPSS. A total of 1694 students (age: 21.12 ± 2.13 years), 95% which belonged to age group 18-25 years, participated in the current study. Most of the participants (91.7%) had suffered from influenza during their life but only 55.7% correctly answered virus as causative agent of flu, while majority of participants, primarily from non-HS disciplines were not aware of flu cause. Very few participants (8.1%) believed that flu can cause death. About 20% students, mainly from non-HS disciplines reported that antibiotic can kill viruses. Similarly, 47.1% respondents agreed on the effectiveness of antibiotic in flu. A large proportion of study population preferred self-medication for influenza. Only 20.1% students were aware of influenza vaccine while majority of students (79.9%) from both disciplines reported that there is no such vaccine. Awareness and health literacy regarding seasonal influenza is poor among university students, especially from non-HS disciplines. These findings necessitate dire need to appropriately structured awareness programs in educational institutes to curb the growing burden of influenza.

Matched MeSH terms: Pandemics/statistics & numerical data
Personal Protective Equipment for Endoscopy in Low-Resource Settings During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Guidance From the World Gastroenterology Organisation

Leddin D, Armstrong D, Raja Ali RA, Barkun A, Butt AS, Chen Y, et al.

J Clin Gastroenterol, 2020 9 11;54(10):833-840.
PMID: 32909973 DOI: 10.1097/MCG.0000000000001411

Performance of endoscopic procedures is associated with a risk of infection from COVID-19. This risk can be reduced by the use of personal protective equipment (PPE). However, shortage of PPE has emerged as an important issue in managing the pandemic in both traditionally high and low-resource areas. A group of clinicians and researchers from thirteen countries representing low, middle, and high-income areas has developed recommendations for optimal utilization of PPE before, during, and after gastrointestinal endoscopy with particular reference to low-resource situations. We determined that there is limited flexibility with regard to the utilization of PPE between ideal and low-resource settings. Some compromises are possible, especially with regard to PPE use, during endoscopic procedures. We have, therefore, also stressed the need to prevent transmission of COVID-19 by measures other than PPE and to conserve PPE by reduction of patient volume, limiting procedures to urgent or emergent, and reducing the number of staff and trainees involved in procedures. This guidance aims to optimize utilization of PPE and protection of health care providers.

Matched MeSH terms: Pandemics/statistics & numerical data
Fulltext COVID-19 and hypertension-evidence and practical management: Guidance from the HOPE Asia Network

Kario K, Morisawa Y, Sukonthasarn A, Turana Y, Chia YC, Park S, et al.

J Clin Hypertens (Greenwich), 2020 Jul;22(7):1109-1119.
PMID: 32643874 DOI: 10.1111/jch.13917

There are several risk factors for worse outcomes in patients with coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19). Patients with hypertension appear to have a poor prognosis, but there is no direct evidence that hypertension increases the risk of new infection or adverse outcomes independent of age and other risk factors. There is also concern about use of renin-angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitors due to a key role of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptors in the entry of the SARS-CoV-2 virus into cells. However, there is little evidence that use of RAS inhibitors increases the risk of SARS-CoV-2 virus infection or worsens the course of COVID-19. Therefore, antihypertensive therapy with these agents should be continued. In addition to acute respiratory distress syndrome, patients with severe COVID-19 can develop myocardial injury and cytokine storm, resulting in heart failure, arteriovenous thrombosis, and kidney injury. Troponin, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, D-dimer, and serum creatinine are biomarkers for these complications and can be used to monitor patients with COVID-19 and for risk stratification. Other factors that need to be incorporated into patient management strategies during the pandemic include regular exercise to maintain good health status and monitoring of psychological well-being. For the ongoing management of patients with hypertension, telemedicine-based home blood pressure monitoring strategies can facilitate maintenance of good blood pressure control while social distancing is maintained. Overall, multidisciplinary management of COVID-19 based on a rapidly growing body of evidence will help ensure the best possible outcomes for patients, including those with risk factors such as hypertension.

Matched MeSH terms: Pandemics/statistics & numerical data