In the Asia-Pacific region (APR), extreme precipitation is one of the most critical climate stressors, affecting 60% of the population and adding pressure to governance, economic, environmental, and public health challenges. In this study, we analyzed extreme precipitation spatiotemporal trends in APR using 11 different indices and revealed the dominant factors governing precipitation amount by attributing its variability to precipitation frequency and intensity. We further investigated how these extreme precipitation indices are influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at a seasonal scale. The analysis covered 465 ERA5 (the fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) study locations over eight countries and regions during 1990-2019. Results revealed a general decrease indicated by the extreme precipitation indices (e.g., the annual total amount of wet-day precipitation, average intensity of wet-day precipitation), particularly in central-eastern China, Bangladesh, eastern India, Peninsular Malaysia and Indonesia. We observed that the seasonal variability of the amount of wet-day precipitation in most locations in China and India are dominated by precipitation intensity in June-August (JJA), and by precipitation frequency in December-February (DJF). Locations in Malaysia and Indonesia are mostly dominated by precipitation intensity in March-May (MAM) and DJF. During ENSO positive phase, significant negative anomalies in seasonal precipitation indices (amount of wet-day precipitation, number of wet days and intensity of wet-day precipitation) were observed in Indonesia, while opposite results were observed for ENSO negative phase. These findings revealing patterns and drivers for extreme precipitation in APR may inform climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies in the study region.
Extreme climate events, such as the El Niños in 1997/1998 and 2015/16, have led to considerable forest loss in the Southeast Asian region following unprecedented drought and wildfires. In Borneo, the effects of extreme climate events have been exacerbated by rapid urbanization, accelerated deforestation and soil erosion since the 1980s. However, studies quantifying the impact of interannual and long-term (>3 decades) climatic and anthropogenic change affecting Borneo's coastal and coral reef environments are lacking. Here, we used coral cores collected in Miri-Sibuti Coral Reefs National Park, Sarawak (Malaysia) to reconstruct the spatio-temporal dynamics of sea surface temperature and oxygen isotopic composition of seawater from 1982 to 2016, based on paired oxygen isotope and Sr/Ca measurements. The results revealed rising sea surface temperatures of 0.26 ± 0.04 °C per decade since 1982. Reconstructed δ18Osw displayed positive excursion during major El Niño events of 1983, 1997/98 and 2015/16, indicating drought conditions with less river runoff, rainfall and higher ocean salinities. La Niñas were generally associated with lower δ18Osw. We observed a long-term shift from more saline conditions between 1982 and 1995 towards less saline conditions after 1995, which are in agreement with the regional freshening trend, punctuated by saline excursion during El Niños. The decadal shifts were found to be driven by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This study provides the first long-term data on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven synchrony of climate impacts on both terrestrial and marine ecosystems in northern Borneo. Our results suggest that coral records from northern Borneo are invaluable archives to detect regional ENSO and PDO impacts, and their interaction with the Asian-Australian monsoon, on the hydrological balance in the southern South China Sea beyond the past three decades.
This study highlights the advantage of functional data approach in assessing and comparing the PM10 pollutant behaviour as an alternative statistical approach during and between the two extreme haze years (1997 and 2005) that have been reported in Selangor, state of Malaysia. The aim of the study was to improvise the current conventional methods used in air quality assessment so that any unforeseen implicit information can be revealed and the previous research findings can be justified. An analysis based on the daily diurnal curves in place of discrete point values was performed. The
analysis results provided evidences of the influence of the change in the climate (due to the El-Nino event), the different levels of different emission sources and meteorological conditions on the severity of the PM10 problem. By means of the cummulative exceedence index and the functional depth method, most of the monitoring stations for the year 2005 experienced the worst day of critical exceedences on the 10th of August, while for the year 1997 it occurred between 13th and 26th September inclusively at different dates among the stations.
The past 40 years in Southeast Asia have seen about 50% of lowland rainforests converted to oil palm and other plantations, and much of the remaining forest heavily logged. Little is known about how fragmentation influences recovery and whether climate change will hamper restoration. Here, we use repeat airborne LiDAR surveys spanning the hot and dry 2015-16 El Niño Southern Oscillation event to measure canopy height growth across 3,300 ha of regenerating tropical forests spanning a logging intensity gradient in Malaysian Borneo. We show that the drought led to increased leaf shedding and branch fall. Short forest, regenerating after heavy logging, continued to grow despite higher evaporative demand, except when it was located close to oil palm plantations. Edge effects from the plantations extended over 300 metres into the forests. Forest growth on hilltops and slopes was particularly impacted by the combination of fragmentation and drought, but even riparian forests located within 40 m of oil palm plantations lost canopy height during the drought. Our results suggest that small patches of logged forest within plantation landscapes will be slow to recover, particularly as ENSO events are becoming more frequent.
The water shortage in Selangor Northwest Project rice granary areas has been growing
concern. The increase in plant capacity and the El Nino phenomenon that hit Malaysia
(1998 & 2016) has cause the main source of irrigation; surface water and rainfall, could
no longer meet the needs of paddy. As a consequence, paddy productivity has
becoming serious concern and urge for alternative irrigation water supply. At the same
time, the use of groundwater as a source of alternative supply of irrigation water has
started to get attentions. However, to determine the potential groundwater aquifer,
preliminary study should be made in advance. Thus, the focus of this paper is to
investigate the geological structure of the Selangor Basin by means analysis of
borehole information. A total of 56 tube wells data were used to obtain layers of
subsurface in the study area. By using groundwater modelling software (Visual
MODFLOW), a model that represents an actual geological conditions has been made.
A total of 6 subsurface layers have been identified. The result of study showed that,
the geological formations of the study area mainly consist of three types; alluvium,
sedimentary and metamorphic rock.
This paper provides an overview of the current available scientific knowledge pertaining to climate change and climate variability over Malaysia. Malaysia is situated in the western part of the Maritime Continent of the Southeast Asian region. Hence, regional climate change and climate variability over this region are of central importance to the understanding of climate change in Malaysia. The latest regional climate downscaling study indicates that, depending on the emission scenario, the mean surface temperature over Malaysia would increase by 3-5oC by the end of the 21st century. The mean precipitation is projected to decrease (increase) during Northern Hemisphere winter (summer). However, future variabilities associated with regional phenomena such as the monsoon, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are largely unknown. Current knowledge on the intensity and frequency of future extreme events (drought and flood) is limited. This is also the case for regional sea level rise and long-term changes in regional seas, especially in the southern region of the South China Sea. We conclude that knowledge gap in the science of climate change over Malaysia and the surrounding region remains wide.
Less than half of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions remain in the atmosphere. While carbon balance models imply large carbon uptake in tropical forests, direct on-the-ground observations are still lacking in Southeast Asia. Here, using long-term plot monitoring records of up to half a century, we find that intact forests in Borneo gained 0.43 Mg C ha-1 per year (95% CI 0.14-0.72, mean period 1988-2010) above-ground live biomass. These results closely match those from African and Amazonian plot networks, suggesting that the world's remaining intact tropical forests are now en masse out-of-equilibrium. Although both pan-tropical and long-term, the sink in remaining intact forests appears vulnerable to climate and land use changes. Across Borneo the 1997-1998 El Niño drought temporarily halted the carbon sink by increasing tree mortality, while fragmentation persistently offset the sink and turned many edge-affected forests into a carbon source to the atmosphere.
The influence of local conditions and remote climate modes on the interannual variability of oil palm fresh fruit bunches (FFB) total yields in Malaysia and two major regions (Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah/Sarawak) is explored. On a country scale, the state of sea-surface temperatures (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean during the previous boreal winter is found to influence the regional climate. When El Niño occurs in the Pacific Ocean, rainfall in Malaysia reduces but air temperature increases, generating a high level of water stress for palm trees. As a result, the yearly production of FFB becomes lower than that of a normal year since the water stress during the boreal spring has an important impact on the total annual yields of FFB. Conversely, La Niña sets favorable conditions for palm trees to produce more FFB by reducing chances of water stress risk. The region of the Leeuwin current also seems to play a secondary role through the Ningaloo Niño/ Niña in the interannual variability of FFB yields. Based on these findings, a linear model is constructed and its ability to reproduce the interannual signal is assessed. This model has shown some skills in predicting the total FFB yield.
El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural forcing that affects global climate patterns, thereon influencing freshwater quality and security. In the advent of a strong El Niño warming event in 2016 which induced an extreme dry weather in Malaysia, water quality variation was investigated in Kampar River which supplies potable water to a population of 92,850. Sampling points were stratified into four ecohydrological units and 144 water samples were examined from October 2015 to March 2017. The Malaysian Water Quality Index (WQI) and some supplementary parameters were analysed in the context of reduced precipitation. Data shows that prolonged dry weather, episodic and sporadic pollution incidents have caused some anomalies in dissolved oxygen (DO), total suspended solids (TSS), turbidity and ammoniacal nitrogen (AN) values recorded and the possible factors are discussed. The month of March and August 2016 recorded the lowest precipitation, but the overall resultant WQI remained acceptable. Since the occurrence of a strong El Niño event is infrequent and far between in decadal time scale, this paper gives some rare insights that may be central to monitoring and managing freshwater resource that has a crucial impact to the mass population in the region of Southeast Asia.
Changes in weather often trigger a myriad of negative impacts on the environment, which eventually affect human health. During the early months of 2016, Malaysia experienced El Niño, with an extremely dry season of almost zero rainfall. At the same time, an increase of more than twofold in fecal secretary immunoglobulin-A (SIgA) levels of healthy preschool children aged 2-6 years was observed, accompanied by an increase in phylum Bacteroidetes, predominantly attributed to genus Bacteroides and Odoribacter, which also positively correlated with fecal SIgA levels. Here, we present evidence to illustrate the detrimental effects of weather change on a microscopic "environment," the human gut ecosystem. We also discuss the protective effects of probiotic against dysbiosis as induced by weather change. The increase in Bacteroidetes was at an expense of decreased genus Faecalibacterium and Veillonella (phylum Firmicutes), whereas children consuming probiotic had a decrease in genus Collinsella, Atopobium, and Eggerthella (phylum Actinobacteria) instead.
Termites perform key ecological functions in tropical ecosystems, are strongly affected by variation in rainfall, and respond negatively to habitat disturbance. However, it is not known how the projected increase in frequency and severity of droughts in tropical rainforests will alter termite communities and the maintenance of ecosystem processes. Using a large-scale termite suppression experiment, we found that termite activity and abundance increased during drought in a Bornean forest. This increase resulted in accelerated litter decomposition, elevated soil moisture, greater soil nutrient heterogeneity, and higher seedling survival rates during the extreme El Niño drought of 2015-2016. Our work shows how an invertebrate group enhances ecosystem resistance to drought, providing evidence that the dual stressors of climate change and anthropogenic shifts in biotic communities will have various negative consequences for the maintenance of rainforest ecosystems.
In 1877, the major towns of the Straits Settlements-Singapore, George Town, Penang Island and Malacca-suffered a drought of exceptional magnitude. The drought's natural instigator was the El Niño phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, a climatic phenomenon then not understood by contemporary observers. The 1877 event has been explored in some depth for countries including India, China and Australia. Its impact on Southeast Asia however is less well-known and the story of how the event unfolded in Singapore and Malaysia has not been told. This paper explores how the contemporary British government responded to the drought, arguing that its impact on hydraulic management was at best minimal yet, it did have impact on other areas, such as forest reservation with the hope of preserving future rainfall. It also highlights how, in contrast to studies on urban water plans in other British Asian colonies, the colonial authorities in the Straits Settlements had a far less coherent and meaningful relationship with water in their town planning schemes. As this paper is part of a special issue, Water History in the time of COVID-19, it has undergone modified peer review.
The Southeast Asian (SEA) region is no stranger to forest fires - the region has been suffering from severe air pollution (known locally as 'haze') as a result of these fires, for decades. The fires in SEA region are caused by a combination of natural (the El Niño weather pattern) and manmade (slash-and-burn and land clearing for plantations) factors. These fires cause the emissions of toxic aerosols and pollutants that can affect millions of people in the region. Thus, this study aims to identify the impact of the SEA haze on the Southern region of the Malaysian Peninsula and Borneo region of East Malaysia using the entire air quality observation data at surface level in 2015. Overall, the concentration of PM10 was about two-fold higher during the haze period compared to non-haze period. The concentrations of CO, flux of CO and flux of BC were aligned with PM10 during the entire observation period. The wind field and cluster of trajectory indicated that the Southern Malaysian Peninsula and Borneo were influenced mainly from the wildfires and the combustion of peat soil in the Indonesian Borneo. This study finds that wildfires from Borneo impacted the Southern Malaysian Borneo more seriously than that from Sumatra region.
Southeast Asian haze is a semi-natural phenomenon that chokes the region each year during the dry monsoon season. Smoke-haze episodes caused by the vegetation and peat fires in Indonesia severely affected large parts of Malaysia during the 2015 El Niño phenomenon. This study aimed to evaluate the factors that influenced the concentrations of aerosol and trace gases during the 2015 haze and non-haze period on a semi-urban site in the southern part of Malaysian peninsula that facing Sumatra (Muar, Site A), and on an urban site near to Kuala Lumpur, influenced by the city centre (Cheras, Site B). Local land use data and the cluster of air mass weighted backward trajectory were used to identify the potential factors from local sources and the transboundary region, respectively. The annual median concentrations of PM10 for semi-urban and urban sites were 45.0μg/m3 and 47.0μg/m3, respectively for the study period (Jan-Dec 2015) from the hourly observation dataset. The highest PM10 concentrations during the haze were 358μg/m3 and 415μg/m3 for the two sites, respectively, representing absolutely unhealthy air. However, the trace gases were within the safe threshold. The average concentrations of PM10 and carbon monoxide were two fold higher during the haze than the non-haze episodes on both sites. Nitrogen dioxide was more influenced by haze compared with sulphur dioxide and ozone. The results of the land use change suggest that the local factor can also partially affect the air pollution on the urban area (Site B) but more visible in 2015. The results of the backward trajectory and the wildfire radiative power showed that the smoke-haze episodes that affected Malaysia in 2015 were mainly initiated in the Indonesian Sumatra and Kalimantan regions. This study provides a very useful information towards the impacted region during El Niño haze episode.