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  1. Oshima M, Jardine MJ, Agarwal R, Bakris G, Cannon CP, Charytan DM, et al.
    Kidney Int, 2021 04;99(4):999-1009.
    PMID: 33316282 DOI: 10.1016/j.kint.2020.10.042
    Canagliflozin slows the progression of chronic kidney disease in patients with type 2 diabetes and induces a reversible acute drop in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), believed to be a hemodynamic effect. Predictors of the initial drop and its association with long-term eGFR trajectories and safety outcomes are unknown. To assess this, we performed a post-hoc analysis of 4289 participants in the CREDENCE trial with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease equally split into treatment and placebo groups who had eGFR measured at both baseline and week three. The eGFR was categorized at week three as greater than a 10% decline; between 0 and 10% decline; and no decline. Long-term eGFR trajectories and safety outcomes were estimated in each category of acute eGFR change by linear mixed effects models and Cox regression after adjustment for baseline characteristics and medications use. Significantly more participants in the canagliflozin (45%) compared to the placebo (21%) group experienced an acute drop in eGFR over 10%. An over 30% drop occurred infrequently (4% of participants with canagliflozin and 2% with placebo). The odds ratio for a drop in eGFR over 10% with canagliflozin compared to placebo was significant at 3.03 (95% confidence interval 2.65, 3.47). Following the initial drop in eGFR, multivariable adjusted long-term eGFR trajectories, as well as overall and kidney safety profiles, in those treated with canagliflozin were similar across eGFR decline categories. Thus, although acute drops in eGFR over 10% occurred in nearly half of all participants following initiation of canagliflozin, the clinical benefit of canagliflozin was observed regardless. Additionally, safety outcomes were similar among subgroups of acute eGFR drop.
  2. Forouzanfar MH, Liu P, Roth GA, Ng M, Biryukov S, Marczak L, et al.
    JAMA, 2017 01 10;317(2):165-182.
    PMID: 28097354 DOI: 10.1001/jama.2016.19043
    Importance: Elevated systolic blood (SBP) pressure is a leading global health risk. Quantifying the levels of SBP is important to guide prevention policies and interventions.

    Objective: To estimate the association between SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher and the burden of different causes of death and disability by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015.

    Design: A comparative risk assessment of health loss related to SBP. Estimated distribution of SBP was based on 844 studies from 154 countries (published 1980-2015) of 8.69 million participants. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to generate estimates of mean SBP and adjusted variance for each age, sex, country, and year. Diseases with sufficient evidence for a causal relationship with high SBP (eg, ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke) were included in the primary analysis.

    Main Outcomes and Measures: Mean SBP level, cause-specific deaths, and health burden related to SBP (≥110-115 mm Hg and also ≥140 mm Hg) by age, sex, country, and year.

    Results: Between 1990-2015, the rate of SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 73 119 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 67 949-78 241) to 81 373 (95% UI, 76 814-85 770) per 100 000, and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 17 307 (95% UI, 17 117-17 492) to 20 526 (95% UI, 20 283-20 746) per 100 000. The estimated annual death rate per 100 000 associated with SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 135.6 (95% UI, 122.4-148.1) to 145.2 (95% UI 130.3-159.9) and the rate for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 97.9 (95% UI, 87.5-108.1) to 106.3 (95% UI, 94.6-118.1). For loss of DALYs associated with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 95.9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 87.0-104.9 million) to 143.0 million (95% UI, 130.2-157.0 million) [corrected], and for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 5.2 million (95% UI, 4.6-5.7 million) to 7.8 million (95% UI, 7.0-8.7 million). The largest numbers of SBP-related deaths were caused by ischemic heart disease (4.9 million [95% UI, 4.0-5.7 million]; 54.5%), hemorrhagic stroke (2.0 million [95% UI, 1.6-2.3 million]; 58.3%), and ischemic stroke (1.5 million [95% UI, 1.2-1.8 million]; 50.0%). In 2015, China, India, Russia, Indonesia, and the United States accounted for more than half of the global DALYs related to SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg.

    Conclusions and Relevance: In international surveys, although there is uncertainty in some estimates, the rate of elevated SBP (≥110-115 and ≥140 mm Hg) increased substantially between 1990 and 2015, and DALYs and deaths associated with elevated SBP also increased. Projections based on this sample suggest that in 2015, an estimated 3.5 billion adults had SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and 874 million adults had SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher.

  3. Roth GA, Johnson C, Abajobir A, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Abyu G, et al.
    J Am Coll Cardiol, 2017 Jul 04;70(1):1-25.
    PMID: 28527533 DOI: 10.1016/j.jacc.2017.04.052
    BACKGROUND: The burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remains unclear in many regions of the world.

    OBJECTIVES: The GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2015 study integrated data on disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality to produce consistent, up-to-date estimates for cardiovascular burden.

    METHODS: CVD mortality was estimated from vital registration and verbal autopsy data. CVD prevalence was estimated using modeling software and data from health surveys, prospective cohorts, health system administrative data, and registries. Years lived with disability (YLD) were estimated by multiplying prevalence by disability weights. Years of life lost (YLL) were estimated by multiplying age-specific CVD deaths by a reference life expectancy. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility.

    RESULTS: In 2015, there were an estimated 422.7 million cases of CVD (95% uncertainty interval: 415.53 to 427.87 million cases) and 17.92 million CVD deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 17.59 to 18.28 million CVD deaths). Declines in the age-standardized CVD death rate occurred between 1990 and 2015 in all high-income and some middle-income countries. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of CVD health lost globally, as well as in each world region, followed by stroke. As SDI increased beyond 0.25, the highest CVD mortality shifted from women to men. CVD mortality decreased sharply for both sexes in countries with an SDI >0.75.

    CONCLUSIONS: CVDs remain a major cause of health loss for all regions of the world. Sociodemographic change over the past 25 years has been associated with dramatic declines in CVD in regions with very high SDI, but only a gradual decrease or no change in most regions. Future updates of the GBD study can be used to guide policymakers who are focused on reducing the overall burden of noncommunicable disease and achieving specific global health targets for CVD.

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