MyMedR

Displaying all 6 publications

Abstract:

Sort:

Fulltext New COVID-19 variant (B.1.1.7): Forecasting the occasion of virus and the related meteorological factors

Rendana M, Idris WMR

J Infect Public Health, 2021 Oct;14(10):1320-1327.
PMID: 34175236 DOI: 10.1016/j.jiph.2021.05.019

BACKGROUND: World Health Organization has reported fifty countries have now detected the new coronavirus (B.1.1.7 variant) since a couple of months ago. In Indonesia, the B.1.1.7 cases have been found in several provinces since January 2021, although they are still in a lower number than the old variant of COVID-19. Therefore, this study aims to create a forecast analysis regarding the occasions of COVID-19 and B.1.1.7 cases based on data from the 1st January to 18th March 2021, and also analyze the association between meteorological factors with B.1.1.7 incidences in three different provinces of Indonesia such as the West Java, South Sumatra and East Kalimantan.
METHODS: We used the Autoregressive Moving Average Models (ARIMA) to forecast the number of cases in the upcoming 14 days and the Spearman correlation analysis to analyze the relationship between B.1.1.7 cases and meteorological variables such as temperature, humidity, rainfall, sunshine, and wind speed.
RESULTS: The results of the study showed the fitted ARIMA models forecasted there was an increase in the daily cases in three provinces. The total cases in three provinces would increase by 36% (West Java), 13.5% (South Sumatra), and 30% (East Kalimantan) as compared with actual cases until the end of 14 days later. The temperature, rainfall and sunshine factors were the main contributors for B.1.1.7 cases with each correlation coefficients; r = -0.230; p < 0.05, r = 0.211; p < 0.05 and r = -0.418; p < 0.01, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: We recapitulated that this investigation was the first preliminary study to analyze a short-term forecast regarding COVID-19 and B.1.1.7 cases as well as to determine the associated meteorological factors that become primary contributors to the virus spread.
Mapping Chini Lake (Pahang, Malaysia) using Sentinel-2 images to determine the effect of acid mine drainage in the pre- to post-COVID-19 restriction period

Rendana M, Idris WMR, Rahim SA

Environ Monit Assess, 2022 Dec 17;195(1):205.
PMID: 36527450 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-022-10833-y

Mining activities in the Chini Lake catchment area have been extensive for several years, contributing to acid mine drainage (AMD) events with high concentrations of iron (Fe) and other heavy metals impacting the surface water. However, during the restriction period due to the COVID-19 outbreak, anthropogenic activities have been suspended, which clearly shows a good opportunity for a better environment. Therefore, we aimed to analyze the variation of AMD-associated water pollution in three main zones of the Chini Lake catchment area using Sentinel-2 data for the periods pre-movement control order (MCO), during MCO, and post-MCO from 2019 to 2021. These three zones were chosen due to their proximity to mining areas: zone 1 in the northeastern part, zone 2 in the southeastern part, and zone 3 in the southern part of the Chini Lake area. The acid mine water index (AMWI) was a specific index used to estimate acid mine water. The AMWI values from Sentinel-2 images exhibited that the mean AMWI values in all zones during the MCO period decreased by 14% compared with the pre-MCO period. The spatiotemporal analysis found that the highest polluted zones were recorded in zone 1, followed by zone 3 and zone 2. As compared with during the MCO period, the maximum percentage of increment during post-MCO in all zones was up to 25%. The loosened restriction policy has resulted in more AMD flowing into surface water and increased pollution in Chini Lake. As a whole, our outputs revealed that Sentinel-2 data had a major potential for assessing the AMD-associated pollution of water.
Fulltext Spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases, epidemic spread rate, spatial pattern, and its correlation with meteorological factors during the first to the second waves

Rendana M, Idris WMR, Abdul Rahim S

J Infect Public Health, 2021 Oct;14(10):1340-1348.
PMID: 34301503 DOI: 10.1016/j.jiph.2021.07.010

Currently, many countries all over the world are facing the second wave of COVID-19. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases, epidemic spread rate, spatial pattern during the first to the second waves in the South Sumatra Province of Indonesia. This study used the geographical information system (GIS) software to map the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases and epidemic spread rate. The spatial autocorrelation of the COVID-19 cases was carried out using Moran's I, while the Pearson correlation was used to examining the relationship between meteorological factors and the epidemic spread rate. Most infected areas and the direction of virus spread were predicted using wind rose analysis. The results revealed that the epidemic rapidly spread from August 1 to December 1, 2020. The highest epidemic spread rate was observed in the Palembang district and in its peripheral areas (dense urban areas), while the lowest spread rate was found in the eastern and southern parts of South Sumatra Province (remote areas). The spatial correlation characteristic of the epidemic distribution exhibited a negative correlation and random distribution. Air temperature, wind speed, and precipitation have contributed to a significant impact on the high epidemic spread rate in the second wave. In summary, this study offers new insight for arranging control and prevention strategies against the potential of second wave strike.
Site suitability analysis for sanitary landfills using geospatial methods in a part of southern Peninsular Malaysia

Arshad S, Lihan T, Rahman ZA, Idris WMR

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int, 2023 Sep;30(41):93760-93778.
PMID: 37516702 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-28764-7

Globally, around 1.3 billion tonnes of waste are generated annually, and solid waste management has thus become a major concern worldwide. There are projections of a 70% increase in waste generation from 2016 to 2050 owing to urbanization and the rapid growth of the global population. Estimates indicate that around 38,200 tonnes of waste are generated per day in Malaysia, and this volume of waste is significantly shortening the planned life spans of operating sanitary landfills in the country. Batu Pahat is a district in the state of Johor, Malaysia, with a relatively large population of 495,000 and with no record of an operational sanitary landfill. This study was conducted to identify and classify the most suitable sites for sanitary landfill developments in southern Peninsular Malaysia by means of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is recognized as a competent technique for multicriteria decision-making. The resulting landfill site suitability index map established 33.88 km2 of area coverage as very highly suitable for landfill development, while 353.86 km2 of area coverage was classified as unsuitable. Sites 1-6 were identified as the most suitable for landfill activities. Sites 1-5 are situated in agricultural land areas, while site 6 is in a forested land area; this implies public participation and the adoption of compensatory measures in the event of landfill development in these areas, given their socioeconomic importance. The six suitable sites are all at least 2000 m from rivers: 2000-3000 m for sites 1, 3, and 5 and > 3000 m for sites 2, 4, and 6. The six sites are all > 3000 m from fault zones and > 1000 m from flood-prone areas, meaning that occurrences such as fault movements and flooding will have minimal impact on the operational activities of landfills at these sites. The selection of sites 1-6 as very suitable for landfill development was associated with an overall accuracy rating of 93.33% and kappa coefficient score of 0.92 based on accuracy assessment analysis of all sites. This study will guide the actions of policymakers, city planners, and local authorities toward sustainable and environment-friendly landfill development and operation in Batu Pahat and other districts in the state of Johor.
Fulltext Irregularity and time series trend analysis of rainfall in Johor, Malaysia

Abdul Talib SA, Idris WMR, Neng LJ, Lihan T, Abdul Rasid MZ

Heliyon, 2024 May 15;10(9):e30324.
PMID: 38726153 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e30324

Due to its effect on weather and its propensity to cause catastrophic incidents, climate change has garnered considerable global attention. Depending on the area, the effects of climate change may vary. Rainfall is among the most significant meteorological factors associated with climate change. In Malaysia, changes in rainfall distribution pattern have led to many floods and droughts events which lead to La Nina and El Nino where Johor is one of the states in southern part that usually affected. Thus, rainfall trend analysis is important to identify changes in rainfall pattern as it gives an initial overview for future analysis. This research aims to evaluate historical rainfall data of Johor between 1991 and 2020. Normality and homogeneity tests were used to ensure the quality of data followed by Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope analysis to determine rainfall trend as the rainfall data is not normally distributed (p > 0.05). Standardized precipitation anomaly, coefficient of variation, precipitation concentration index and rainfall anomaly index were used to identify rainfall variability and intensity while standard precipitation index was used to evaluate drought severity. The lowest annual rainfall recorded was 1725.07 mm in 2016 and the highest was 2993.19 mm in 2007. Annual rainfall and seasonal rainfall showed a declining trend although it is not statistically significant (p > 0.05). Results reveal that Johor experienced extreme wet and dry years, leading to drought and flood incidents. Major floods arose in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010 and 2011 while driest years occurred in 1997, 1998 and 2016 which led to El Nino phenomenon. March and April were identified as the driest months among all. Thus, the findings from this study would assist researchers and decision-makers in the development of applicable adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce climate change impact. It is recommended that more data analysis from more stations should be done in the future research study to obtain a clearer view and more comprehensive results.
Predicting soil erosion potential under CMIP6 climate change scenarios in the Chini Lake Basin, Malaysia

Rendana M, Idris WMR, Rahim SA, Rahman ZA, Lihan T

Geosci Lett, 2023;10(1):1.
PMID: 36619610 DOI: 10.1186/s40562-022-00254-7

Climate change and soil erosion are very associated with environmental defiance which affects the life sustainability of humans. However, the potency effects of both events in tropical regions are arduous to be estimated due to atmospheric conditions and unsustainable land use management. Therefore, several models can be used to predict the impacts of distinct climate scenarios on human and environmental relationships. In this study, we aimed to predict current and future soil erosion potential in the Chini Lake Basin, Malaysia under different Climate Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6) scenarios (e.g., SSP2.6, SSP4.5, and SSP8.5). Our results found the predicted mean soil erosion values for the baseline scenario (2019-2021) was around 50.42 t/ha year. The mining areas recorded the highest soil erosion values located in the southeastern part. The high future soil erosion values (36.15 t/ha year) were obtained for SSP4.5 during 2060-2080. Whilst, the lowest values (33.30 t/ha year) were obtained for SSP2.6 during 2040-2060. According to CMIP6, the future soil erosion potential in the study area would reduce by approximately 33.9% compared to the baseline year (2019-2021). The rainfall erosivity factor majorly affected soil erosion potential in the study area. The output of the study will contribute to achieving the United Nations' 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.