This study aims to investigate the influence of the volatility of exchange rates on manufacturing commodity exports in the ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines). The study used the ARCH/GARCH, ARDL, and Nonlinear ARDL to determine the symmetrical and asymmetrical influence of the volatility of the exchange rate on manufacturing exports in both the short run and long run. Five leading commodity exports for each of the ASEAN-5 countries were used and analyzed over the period January 2007-March 2019. Our strategy using the ARDL approach revealed that volatility has a significant influence on 13 commodity exports in the short term. While the Nonlinear ARDL approach revealed that volatility influenced 19 commodity exports. Additionally, in the long run, finding from ARDL and Nonlinear ARDL also indicates risk-averse behaviour by exporters. However, in the long run, the nonlinear model demonstrates that volatility asserts an asymmetric influence on nearly all commodity exports. With this, therefore, there is the need for policymakers to uphold steadiness in the exchange rate via the use of adequate foreign reserves and amplified the level of investment.
This study explores the determinants of the export performance of Indonesia's low-, medium-, and high-technology manufacturing industries by focusing on the role of raw-material imports and technical efficiency. Micro firm-level data from 2010-2015 were utilized for the analysis in this study. The stochastic frontier analysis was employed to measure technical inefficiency and to determine its effect on export performance. Our findings indicate that in all categories of industry technical efficiency, raw materials imports, foreign direct investment (FDI), location, firm size, labour productivity, and concentration of industries were significant determinants of export performance. While high efficiency increases exports in low- and medium-technology firms, exports decrease in firms with high efficiency accompanied by high imports, FDI, size, and labour productivity. Furthermore, in high-technology industries, efficiency reduces exports and again increases them when mediated by a concentration of industries and location. The empirical strategy also supports the positive effect of imports on export performance in both industries, which also aligns with decreased exports in firms with high imports accompanied by high FDI, efficiency, labour productivity, the concentration of industries, and size. To this end, the study has implications for low-, medium-, and high-technology manufacturing that are mainly concerned with increasing exports.