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Fulltext A review on COVID-19 forecasting models

Rahimi I, Chen F, Gandomi AH

Neural Comput Appl, 2021 Feb 04.
PMID: 33564213 DOI: 10.1007/s00521-020-05626-8

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has spread to more than 200 countries worldwide, leading to more than 36 million confirmed cases as of October 10, 2020. As such, several machine learning models that can forecast the outbreak globally have been released. This work presents a review and brief analysis of the most important machine learning forecasting models against COVID-19. The work presented in this study possesses two parts. In the first section, a detailed scientometric analysis presents an influential tool for bibliometric analyses, which were performed on COVID-19 data from the Scopus and Web of Science databases. For the above-mentioned analysis, keywords and subject areas are addressed, while the classification of machine learning forecasting models, criteria evaluation, and comparison of solution approaches are discussed in the second section of the work. The conclusion and discussion are provided as the final sections of this study.
Fulltext Solar power forecasting beneath diverse weather conditions using GD and LM-artificial neural networks

Sharma N, Puri V, Mahajan S, Abualigah L, Zitar RA, Gandomi AH

Sci Rep, 2023 May 25;13(1):8517.
PMID: 37231039 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-35457-1

Large-scale solar energy production is still a great deal of obstruction due to the unpredictability of solar power. The intermittent, chaotic, and random quality of solar energy supply has to be dealt with by some comprehensive solar forecasting technologies. Despite forecasting for the long-term, it becomes much more essential to predict short-term forecasts in minutes or even seconds prior. Because key factors such as sudden movement of the clouds, instantaneous deviation of temperature in ambiance, the increased proportion of relative humidity and uncertainty in the wind velocities, haziness, and rains cause the undesired up and down ramping rates, thereby affecting the solar power generation to a greater extent. This paper aims to acknowledge the extended stellar forecasting algorithm using artificial neural network common sensical aspect. Three layered systems have been suggested, consisting of an input layer, hidden layer, and output layer feed-forward in conjunction with back propagation. A prior 5-min te output forecast fed to the input layer to reduce the error has been introduced to have a more precise forecast. Weather remains the most vital input for the ANN type of modeling. The forecasting errors might enhance considerably, thereby affecting the solar power supply relatively due to the variations in the solar irradiations and temperature on any forecasting day. Prior approximation of stellar radiations exhibits a small amount of qualm depending upon climatic conditions such as temperature, shading conditions, soiling effects, relative humidity, etc. All these environmental factors incorporate uncertainty regarding the prediction of the output parameter. In such a case, the approximation of PV output could be much more suitable than direct solar radiation. This paper uses Gradient Descent (GD) and Levenberg Maquarndt Artificial Neural Network (LM-ANN) techniques to apply to data obtained and recorded milliseconds from a 100 W solar panel. The essential purpose of this paper is to establish a time perspective with the greatest deal for the output forecast of small solar power utilities. It has been observed that 5 ms to 12 h time perspective gives the best short- to medium-term prediction for April. A case study has been done in the Peer Panjal region. The data collected for four months with various parameters have been applied randomly as input data using GD and LM type of artificial neural network compared to actual solar energy data. The proposed ANN based algorithm has been used for unswerving petite term forecasting. The model output has been presented in root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. The results exhibit a improved concurrence between the forecasted and real models. The forecasting of solar energy and load variations assists in fulfilling the cost-effective aspects.
Fulltext Mathematical modelling and analysis of COVID-19 and tuberculosis transmission dynamics

Singh R, Rehman AU, Ahmed T, Ahmad K, Mahajan S, Pandit AK, et al.

Inform Med Unlocked, 2023;38:101235.
PMID: 37033412 DOI: 10.1016/j.imu.2023.101235

In this paper, a mathematical model for assessing the impact of COVID-19 on tuberculosis disease is proposed and analysed. There are pieces of evidence that patients with Tuberculosis (TB) have more chances of developing the SARS-CoV-2 infection. The mathematical model is qualitatively and quantitatively analysed by using the theory of stability analysis. The dynamic system shows endemic equilibrium point which is stable when R 0 < 1 and unstable when R 0 > 1 . The global stability of the endemic point is analysed by constructing the Lyapunov function. The dynamic stability also exhibits bifurcation behaviour. The optimal control theory is used to find an optimal solution to the problem in the mathematical model. The sensitivity analysis is performed to clarify the effective parameters which affect the reproduction number the most. Numerical simulation is carried out to assess the effect of various biological parameters in the dynamic of both tuberculosis and COVID-19 classes. Our simulation results show that the COVID-19 and TB infections can be mitigated by controlling the transmission rate γ .
Auto-detection of the coronavirus disease by using deep convolutional neural networks and X-ray photographs

Hussein AM, Sharifai AG, Alia OM, Abualigah L, Almotairi KH, Abujayyab SKM, et al.

Sci Rep, 2024 Jan 04;14(1):534.
PMID: 38177156 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-47038-3

The most widely used method for detecting Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is real-time polymerase chain reaction. However, this method has several drawbacks, including high cost, lengthy turnaround time for results, and the potential for false-negative results due to limited sensitivity. To address these issues, additional technologies such as computed tomography (CT) or X-rays have been employed for diagnosing the disease. Chest X-rays are more commonly used than CT scans due to the widespread availability of X-ray machines, lower ionizing radiation, and lower cost of equipment. COVID-19 presents certain radiological biomarkers that can be observed through chest X-rays, making it necessary for radiologists to manually search for these biomarkers. However, this process is time-consuming and prone to errors. Therefore, there is a critical need to develop an automated system for evaluating chest X-rays. Deep learning techniques can be employed to expedite this process. In this study, a deep learning-based method called Custom Convolutional Neural Network (Custom-CNN) is proposed for identifying COVID-19 infection in chest X-rays. The Custom-CNN model consists of eight weighted layers and utilizes strategies like dropout and batch normalization to enhance performance and reduce overfitting. The proposed approach achieved a classification accuracy of 98.19% and aims to accurately classify COVID-19, normal, and pneumonia samples.
Revealing the nature of cardiovascular disease using DERGA, a novel data ensemble refinement greedy algorithm

Asteris PG, Gavriilaki E, Kampaktsis PN, Gandomi AH, Armaghani DJ, Tsoukalas MZ, et al.

Int J Cardiol, 2024 Jul 03;412:132339.
PMID: 38968972 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcard.2024.132339

BACKGROUND: The study aimed to determine the most crucial parameters associated with CVD and employ a novel data ensemble refinement procedure to uncover the optimal pattern of these parameters that can result in a high prediction accuracy.
METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were collected from 369 patients in total, 281 patients with CVD or at risk of developing it, compared to 88 otherwise healthy individuals. Within the group of 281 CVD or at-risk patients, 53 were diagnosed with coronary artery disease (CAD), 16 with end-stage renal disease, 47 newly diagnosed with diabetes mellitus 2 and 92 with chronic inflammatory disorders (21 rheumatoid arthritis, 41 psoriasis, 30 angiitis). The data were analyzed using an artificial intelligence-based algorithm with the primary objective of identifying the optimal pattern of parameters that define CVD. The study highlights the effectiveness of a six-parameter combination in discerning the likelihood of cardiovascular disease using DERGA and Extra Trees algorithms. These parameters, ranked in order of importance, include Platelet-derived Microvesicles (PMV), hypertension, age, smoking, dyslipidemia, and Body Mass Index (BMI). Endothelial and erythrocyte MVs, along with diabetes were the least important predictors. In addition, the highest prediction accuracy achieved is 98.64%. Notably, using PMVs alone yields a 91.32% accuracy, while the optimal model employing all ten parameters, yields a prediction accuracy of 0.9783 (97.83%).
CONCLUSIONS: Our research showcases the efficacy of DERGA, an innovative data ensemble refinement greedy algorithm. DERGA accelerates the assessment of an individual's risk of developing CVD, allowing for early diagnosis, significantly reduces the number of required lab tests and optimizes resource utilization. Additionally, it assists in identifying the optimal parameters critical for assessing CVD susceptibility, thereby enhancing our understanding of the underlying mechanisms.
Fulltext Genetic justification of COVID-19 patient outcomes using DERGA, a novel data ensemble refinement greedy algorithm

Asteris PG, Gandomi AH, Armaghani DJ, Tsoukalas MZ, Gavriilaki E, Gerber G, et al.

J Cell Mol Med, 2024 Feb;28(4):e18105.
PMID: 38339761 DOI: 10.1111/jcmm.18105

Complement inhibition has shown promise in various disorders, including COVID-19. A prediction tool including complement genetic variants is vital. This study aims to identify crucial complement-related variants and determine an optimal pattern for accurate disease outcome prediction. Genetic data from 204 COVID-19 patients hospitalized between April 2020 and April 2021 at three referral centres were analysed using an artificial intelligence-based algorithm to predict disease outcome (ICU vs. non-ICU admission). A recently introduced alpha-index identified the 30 most predictive genetic variants. DERGA algorithm, which employs multiple classification algorithms, determined the optimal pattern of these key variants, resulting in 97% accuracy for predicting disease outcome. Individual variations ranged from 40 to 161 variants per patient, with 977 total variants detected. This study demonstrates the utility of alpha-index in ranking a substantial number of genetic variants. This approach enables the implementation of well-established classification algorithms that effectively determine the relevance of genetic variants in predicting outcomes with high accuracy.