AIM: To evaluate the accuracy of MACK-3 for the diagnosis of fibrotic NASH.
METHODOLOGY: Consecutive adult non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients who had liver biopsy in a university hospital were included. MACK-3 was calculated using the online calculator using the following variables: fasting glucose, fasting insulin, aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and cytokeratin 18 (CK18). MACK-3 cut-offs ≤0.134 and ≥0.550 were used to predict absence and presence of fibrotic NASH, respectively. Histopathological examination of liver biopsy specimen was reported according to the NASH Clinical Research Network Scoring System.
RESULTS: Data for 196 subjects were analysed. MACK-3 was good for diagnosis of fibrotic NASH (area under receiver-operating characteristics curve [AUROC] 0.80), comparable to the Fibrosis-4 index (FIB4) and the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) and superior to the BARD score and CK18. MACK-3 was good for diagnosis of active NASH (AUROC 0.81) and was superior to other blood fibrosis tests. The overall accuracy, percentage of subjects in grey zone, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of MACK-3 for diagnosis of fibrotic NASH was 79.1%, 46.9%, 100%, 43.8%, 43.1% and 100%, respectively, while for diagnosis of active NASH was 90.0%, 39.3%, 84.2%, 81.4%, 88.9% and 74.5%, respectively.
CONCLUSION: MACK-3 is promising as a non-invasive test for active NASH and fibrotic NASH and may be useful to identify patients who need more aggressive intervention.
METHODS: A longitudinal study of biopsy-proven NAFLD patients was conducted at the Asian tertiary hospital from November 2012 to January 2017. Patients with paired liver biopsies and LSM were followed prospectively for liver-related and non-liver related complications, and survival.
RESULTS: The data for 113 biopsy-proven NAFLD patients (mean age 51.3 ± 10.6 years, male 50%) were analyzed. At baseline, advanced fibrosis based on histology and LSM was observed in 22 and 46%, respectively. Paired liver biopsy and LSM at 1-year interval was available in 71 and 80% of patients, respectively. High-risk cases (defined as patients with advanced fibrosis at baseline who had no fibrosis improvement, and patients who developed advanced fibrosis on repeat assessment) were seen in 23 and 53% of patients, based on paired liver biopsy and LSM, respectively. Type 2 diabetes mellitus was independently associated with high-risk cases. The median follow-up was 37 months with a total follow-up of 328 person-years. High-risk cases based on paired liver biopsy had significantly higher rates of liver-related complications (p = 0.002) but no difference in other outcomes. High-risk patients based on paired LSM had a significantly higher rate of liver-related complications (p = 0.046), cardiovascular events (p = 0.025) and composite outcomes (p = 0.006).
CONCLUSION: Repeat LSM can predict liver-related complications, similar to paired liver biopsy, and may be useful in identifying patients who may be at an increased risk of cardiovascular events. Further studies in a larger cohort and with a longer follow-up should be carried out to confirm these observations.
AIM: To identify the association of baseline GGT level and QRISK2 score among patients with biopsy-proven nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).
METHODS: This was a retrospective study involving 1535 biopsy-proven NAFLD patients from 10 Asian centers in 8 countries using data collected by the Gut and Obesity in Asia (referred to as "GO ASIA") workgroup. All patients with available baseline GGT levels and all 16 variables for the QRISK2 calculation (QRISK2-2017; developed by researchers at the United Kingdom National Health Service; https://qrisk.org/2017/; 10-year cardiovascular risk estimation) were included and compared to healthy controls with the same age, sex, and ethnicity. Relative risk was reported. QRISK2 score > 10% was defined as the high-CVD-risk group. Fibrosis stages 3 and 4 (F3 and F4) were considered advanced fibrosis.
RESULTS: A total of 1122 patients (73%) had complete data and were included in the final analysis; 314 (28%) had advanced fibrosis. The median age (interquartile range [IQR]) of the study population was 53 (44-60) years, 532 (47.4%) were females, and 492 (43.9%) were of Chinese ethnicity. The median 10-year CVD risk (IQR) was 5.9% (2.6-10.9), and the median relative risk of CVD over 10 years (IQR) was 1.65 (1.13-2.2) compared to healthy individuals with the same age, sex, and ethnicity. The high-CVD-risk group was significantly older than the low-risk group (median [IQR]: 63 [59-67] vs 49 [41-55] years; P < 0.001). Higher fibrosis stages in biopsy-proven NAFLD patients brought a significantly higher CVD risk (P < 0.001). Median GGT level was not different between the two groups (GGT [U/L]: Median [IQR], high risk 60 [37-113] vs low risk 66 [38-103], P = 0.56). There was no correlation between baseline GGT level and 10-year CVD risk based on the QRISK2 score (r = 0.02).
CONCLUSION: The CVD risk of NAFLD patients is higher than that of healthy individuals. Baseline GGT level cannot predict CVD risk in NAFLD patients. However, advanced fibrosis is a predictor of a high CVD risk.