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Historical population declines prompted significant genomic erosion in the northern and southern white rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum)

Sánchez-Barreiro F, Gopalakrishnan S, Ramos-Madrigal J, Westbury MV, de Manuel M, Margaryan A, et al.

Mol Ecol, 2021 12;30(23):6355-6369.
PMID: 34176179 DOI: 10.1111/mec.16043

Large vertebrates are extremely sensitive to anthropogenic pressure, and their populations are declining fast. The white rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum) is a paradigmatic case: this African megaherbivore has suffered a remarkable decline in the last 150 years due to human activities. Its subspecies, the northern (NWR) and the southern white rhinoceros (SWR), however, underwent opposite fates: the NWR vanished quickly, while the SWR recovered after the severe decline. Such demographic events are predicted to have an erosive effect at the genomic level, linked to the extirpation of diversity, and increased genetic drift and inbreeding. However, there is little empirical data available to directly reconstruct the subtleties of such processes in light of distinct demographic histories. Therefore, we generated a whole-genome, temporal data set consisting of 52 resequenced white rhinoceros genomes, representing both subspecies at two time windows: before and during/after the bottleneck. Our data reveal previously unknown population structure within both subspecies, as well as quantifiable genomic erosion. Genome-wide heterozygosity decreased significantly by 10% in the NWR and 36% in the SWR, and inbreeding coefficients rose significantly by 11% and 39%, respectively. Despite the remarkable loss of genomic diversity and recent inbreeding it suffered, the only surviving subspecies, the SWR, does not show a significant accumulation of genetic load compared to its historical counterpart. Our data provide empirical support for predictions about the genomic consequences of shrinking populations, and our findings have the potential to inform the conservation efforts of the remaining white rhinoceroses.
Fulltext Historic Sampling of a Vanishing Beast: Population Structure and Diversity in the Black Rhinoceros

Sánchez-Barreiro F, De Cahsan B, Westbury MV, Sun X, Margaryan A, Fontsere C, et al.

Mol Biol Evol, 2023 Sep 01;40(9).
PMID: 37561011 DOI: 10.1093/molbev/msad180

The black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis L.) is a critically endangered species historically distributed across sub-Saharan Africa. Hunting and habitat disturbance have diminished both its numbers and distribution since the 19th century, but a poaching crisis in the late 20th century drove them to the brink of extinction. Genetic and genomic assessments can greatly increase our knowledge of the species and inform management strategies. However, when a species has been severely reduced, with the extirpation and artificial admixture of several populations, it is extremely challenging to obtain an accurate understanding of historic population structure and evolutionary history from extant samples. Therefore, we generated and analyzed whole genomes from 63 black rhinoceros museum specimens collected between 1775 and 1981. Results showed that the black rhinoceros could be genetically structured into six major historic populations (Central Africa, East Africa, Northwestern Africa, Northeastern Africa, Ruvuma, and Southern Africa) within which were nested four further subpopulations (Maasailand, southwestern, eastern rift, and northern rift), largely mirroring geography, with a punctuated north-south cline. However, we detected varying degrees of admixture among groups and found that several geographical barriers, most prominently the Zambezi River, drove population discontinuities. Genomic diversity was high in the middle of the range and decayed toward the periphery. This comprehensive historic portrait also allowed us to ascertain the ancestry of 20 resequenced genomes from extant populations. Lastly, using insights gained from this unique temporal data set, we suggest management strategies, some of which require urgent implementation, for the conservation of the remaining black rhinoceros diversity.
Fulltext Early Pleistocene enamel proteome from Dmanisi resolves Stephanorhinus phylogeny

Cappellini E, Welker F, Pandolfi L, Ramos-Madrigal J, Samodova D, Rüther PL, et al.

Nature, 2019 10;574(7776):103-107.
PMID: 31511700 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1555-y

The sequencing of ancient DNA has enabled the reconstruction of speciation, migration and admixture events for extinct taxa1. However, the irreversible post-mortem degradation2 of ancient DNA has so far limited its recovery-outside permafrost areas-to specimens that are not older than approximately 0.5 million years (Myr)3. By contrast, tandem mass spectrometry has enabled the sequencing of approximately 1.5-Myr-old collagen type I4, and suggested the presence of protein residues in fossils of the Cretaceous period5-although with limited phylogenetic use6. In the absence of molecular evidence, the speciation of several extinct species of the Early and Middle Pleistocene epoch remains contentious. Here we address the phylogenetic relationships of the Eurasian Rhinocerotidae of the Pleistocene epoch7-9, using the proteome of dental enamel from a Stephanorhinus tooth that is approximately 1.77-Myr old, recovered from the archaeological site of Dmanisi (South Caucasus, Georgia)10. Molecular phylogenetic analyses place this Stephanorhinus as a sister group to the clade formed by the woolly rhinoceros (Coelodonta antiquitatis) and Merck's rhinoceros (Stephanorhinus kirchbergensis). We show that Coelodonta evolved from an early Stephanorhinus lineage, and that this latter genus includes at least two distinct evolutionary lines. The genus Stephanorhinus is therefore currently paraphyletic, and its systematic revision is needed. We demonstrate that sequencing the proteome of Early Pleistocene dental enamel overcomes the limitations of phylogenetic inference based on ancient collagen or DNA. Our approach also provides additional information about the sex and taxonomic assignment of other specimens from Dmanisi. Our findings reveal that proteomic investigation of ancient dental enamel-which is the hardest tissue in vertebrates11, and is highly abundant in the fossil record-can push the reconstruction of molecular evolution further back into the Early Pleistocene epoch, beyond the currently known limits of ancient DNA preservation.
Fulltext Morbidity and mortality from road injuries: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

James SL, Lucchesi LR, Bisignano C, Castle CD, Dingels ZV, Fox JT, et al.

Inj Prev, 2020 Oct;26(Supp 1):i46-i56.
PMID: 31915274 DOI: 10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043302

BACKGROUND: The global burden of road injuries is known to follow complex geographical, temporal and demographic patterns. While health loss from road injuries is a major topic of global importance, there has been no recent comprehensive assessment that includes estimates for every age group, sex and country over recent years.
METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study to report incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years for all locations in the GBD 2017 hierarchy from 1990 to 2017 for road injuries. Second, we measured mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we assessed the distribution of the natures of injury (eg, traumatic brain injury) that result from each road injury.
RESULTS: Globally, 1 243 068 (95% uncertainty interval 1 191 889 to 1 276 940) people died from road injuries in 2017 out of 54 192 330 (47 381 583 to 61 645 891) new cases of road injuries. Age-standardised incidence rates of road injuries increased between 1990 and 2017, while mortality rates decreased. Regionally, age-standardised mortality rates decreased in all but two regions, South Asia and Southern Latin America, where rates did not change significantly. Nine of 21 GBD regions experienced significant increases in age-standardised incidence rates, while 10 experienced significant decreases and two experienced no significant change.
CONCLUSIONS: While road injury mortality has improved in recent decades, there are worsening rates of incidence and significant geographical heterogeneity. These findings indicate that more research is needed to better understand how road injuries can be prevented.
Fulltext Burden of injury along the development spectrum: associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Haagsma JA, James SL, Castle CD, Dingels ZV, Fox JT, Hamilton EB, et al.

Inj Prev, 2020 Oct;26(Supp 1):i12-i26.
PMID: 31915273 DOI: 10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043296

BACKGROUND: The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates.
METHODS: Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate.
RESULTS: For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced.
CONCLUSIONS: The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.
Fulltext Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

James SL, Castle CD, Dingels ZV, Fox JT, Hamilton EB, Liu Z, et al.

Inj Prev, 2020 Oct;26(Supp 1):i125-i153.
PMID: 32839249 DOI: 10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043531

BACKGROUND: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria.
METHODS: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced.
RESULTS: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes.
CONCLUSIONS: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.
Fulltext Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Burstein R, Henry NJ, Collison ML, Marczak LB, Sligar A, Watson S, et al.

Nature, 2019 Oct;574(7778):353-358.
PMID: 31619795 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1545-0

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.
Fulltext Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

James SL, Castle CD, Dingels ZV, Fox JT, Hamilton EB, Liu Z, et al.

Inj Prev, 2020 10;26(Supp 1):i96-i114.
PMID: 32332142 DOI: 10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043494

BACKGROUND: Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries.
METHODS: We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).
FINDINGS: In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505).
INTERPRETATION: Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.
Fulltext Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Global Burden of Disease Cancer Collaboration, Fitzmaurice C, Abate D, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, et al.

JAMA Oncol, 2019 Dec 01;5(12):1749-1768.
PMID: 31560378 DOI: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2019.2996

IMPORTANCE: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data.
OBJECTIVE: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning.
EVIDENCE REVIEW: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence.
FINDINGS: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572 000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542 000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819 000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601 000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596 000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414 000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs).
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care.